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Thread: Science magazine blows the whistle on climate model failure

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    Default Science magazine blows the whistle on climate model failure

    .
    McSlobber insisted only the likes of Science and Nature were serious reference material. Although I guarantee the twat will ignore this, along with Doris, Madwitch, Arsecheese and others.


    Leading climate scientists conceded that models used to estimate how much the world will warm with rising levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere are running too hot.

    “It’s become clear over the last year or so that we can’t avoid this,” Gavin Schmidt, director of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, told Science *magazine.

    The admission is seen as a significant development by scientists who argue that not enough attention has been paid to natural *cycles in the earth’s climate.

    It puts another question mark over the use of the most extreme scenarios generated by models, RCP8.5, to estimate what could be expected in a warming world.

    The concession has been made on the eve of this month’s release of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s report on the science of climate change.

    That report, delayed a year *because of Covid-19, is due to be released on Aug*ust 9 and will outline what can be expected with different levels of warming.

    It will play a major role in *preparations for the upcoming *climate change summit in *Glasgow, Scotland, in November.

    A Science article published this week said climate scientists faced the alarming reality that “climate models that help them project the future have grown a little too alarmist”.

    “Many of the world’s leading models are now projecting warming rates that most scientists, *including the model makers themselves, believe are implausibly fast”, the article said.

    “In advance of the UN report, scientists have scrambled to understand what went wrong and how to turn the models, which in other respects are more powerful and trustworthy than their predecessors, into useful guidance for policymakers.”

    In the past, most models projected a “climate sensitivity” – the warming expected when atmospheric carbon dioxide is doubled over pre-industrial times – of *between 2C and 4.5C.

    Last year, a landmark paper that used documented factors including ongoing warming trends calculated a likely climate sensitivity of between 2.6C and 3.9C but many of the new models from leading centres showed warming of more than 5C – uncomfortably outside these bounds.

    The models were also out of step with records of past climate.

    According to Science, the IPCC team will probably use *reality – the actual warming of the world over the past few decades – to constrain model projections.

    The IPCC report is also likely to present the impacts of different amounts of warming – 2C, 3C, 4C – rather than saying how quickly those impacts will be felt.

    Steve Sherwood from the UNSW Climate Change Research Centre said “while it is true some new climate models have surprising climate sensitivities and predict very high future warming, what doesn’t always come through is that most new models have sensitivity values within the range estimated from observations”.

    “Those models still predict substantial future weather and climate changes due to carbon dioxide, similar to predictions made by the science community for many years,” Professor Sherwood said.

    US climate scientist Judith Curry said the IPCC report would certainly discuss the problem with climate models: “The elephant in the room for the IPCC is they are heavily relying on RCP8.5 emissions scenarios, which are now widely regarded as implausible.”

    Michael Asten, an expert reviewer of the IPCC’s AR6 report, said the admission that climate models were running hot was a significant concession.
    https://www.thegwpf.com/science-maga...model-failure/
    Last edited by cancel2 2022; 07-30-2021 at 10:09 PM.

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    Default

    Unread!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jack View Post
    Unread!
    no one reads his stuff

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    Follow the science where it takes you. Ignore the rest.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Primavera View Post
    .
    McSlobber insisted only the likes of Science and Nature were serious reference material. Although I guarantee the twat will ignore this, along with Doris, Madwitch, Arsecheese and others.

    https://www.thegwpf.com/science-maga...model-failure/



    Looks like you’ve finally succeeded in convincing them, primavera. They don’t even feel the need to read the evidence. Well done!
    Last edited by anonymoose; 07-30-2021 at 11:21 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by anonymoose View Post
    Looks like you’ve finally succeeded in convincing them, primavera. They don’t even feel the need to read the evidence. Well done!
    It's extraordinary how impervious they are to reason ordinarily, still better late than never. The big fish is Gavin Schmidt of NASA GISS, what will Arsecheese have to say? Of course it will be a cold day in hell before Doris or Madwitch admit they're wrong.
    Last edited by cancel2 2022; 07-31-2021 at 12:56 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Primavera View Post
    It's extraordinary how impervious they are to reason ordinarily, still better late than never. The big fish is Gavin Schmidt of NASA GISS, what will Arsecheese have to say? Of course it will be a cold day in hell before Doris or Madwitch admit they're wrong.
    No worries with them. They’ve given up.
    They’ve surrendered. It’s obvious. No more arguments left with them.

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    Quote Originally Posted by BidenPresident View Post
    no one reads his stuff
    LIAR
    This illegal illegitimate regime that runs America is at fault...not me.... they do not represent me and I have long objected to their crimes against humanity.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Primavera View Post
    It's extraordinary how impervious they are to reason ordinarily, still better late than never. The big fish is Gavin Schmidt of NASA GISS, what will Arsecheese have to say? Of course it will be a cold day in hell before Doris or Madwitch admit they're wrong.
    That is a great clue that you are dealing with a religion or a cult.
    This illegal illegitimate regime that runs America is at fault...not me.... they do not represent me and I have long objected to their crimes against humanity.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Hawkeye10 View Post
    LIAR
    Certainly never read hers, she has bats in the belfry.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jack View Post
    Unread!
    Lol, unread by the undead!!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Primavera View Post
    Certainly never read hers, she has bats in the belfry.
    Do you find it easy to tell the difference between those who cant think and those who can and do but lie constantly?
    This illegal illegitimate regime that runs America is at fault...not me.... they do not represent me and I have long objected to their crimes against humanity.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Hawkeye10 View Post
    Do you find it easy to tell the difference between those who cant think and those who can and do but lie constantly?
    Not many of the latter, mostly the braindead here.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Primavera View Post
    .
    McSlobber insisted only the likes of Science and Nature were serious reference material. Although I guarantee the twat will ignore this, along with Doris, Madwitch, Arsecheese and others.




    https://www.thegwpf.com/science-maga...model-failure/
    wsportsman.wasnt it democrts who said science is right or was that biden with his truth or fact

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    maggot;
    The admission is seen as a significant development by scientists who argue that not enough attention has been paid to natural *cycles in the earth’s climate.
    Haw, haw........................haw.

    Natural cycles which just happen to coincide exactly, according to the irrefutable ice records, with the onset of anthropogenic global warming associated with the Industrial Revolution .


    Haw, haw......................................haw.


    Give it up, maggot . Your credibility is already in negative territory.
    " First they came for the journalists...
    We don't know what happened after that . "

    Maria Ressa.

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