Reply With QuoteAnd it was Trump's economy when the market plunged in the Spring of 2020 when Trump stepped on his dick trying to deal with the Pandemic.Originally Posted by Jarod
Insane Level of Addiction
JPP Contributor
So its Trqmp's inflation?
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LOCK HIM UP!
Racism is a disease
And it was Trump's economy when the market plunged in the Spring of 2020 when Trump stepped on his dick trying to deal with the Pandemic.
Judge Juan M. Merchan wrote that Trump “appears to take the position that his situation and this case are unique and that the pre-trial publicity will never subside. However, this view does not align with reality.”
Jarod (06-12-2021)
Insane Level of Addiction
A couple of thoughts. You pointed specifically to the 2003 legislation intended to help minorities with down payments as the cause. Speaking only for myself, and I am NO expert on this subject, I've read about a half dozen books and tons of articles on the financial crisis and not seen that particular legislation as pointed to as the cause.
Bush was President during the crisis so he definitely had a role. But there are many factors involved here including those which were already in motion prior to him taking office. This didn't happen in a vacuum. And the biggest impetus for the crisis was the Fed's easy money policy. We had the dot com bust/recession and then 9/11 and the Fed dropped rates and kept them low. It's the same factors involved in today's asset inflation. It's a facile argument, imo, to say one person alone was responsible for the financial crisis.
Racism is a disease
Oh, I'm not saying Bush Jr was the ONLY cause of the Mortgage crisis but his American Dream Downpayment Act was probably the thing that tipped it over the edge.
I remember in 2004 when the housing market was raging. It was such a Seller's Market, people were getting 10-20% more than their listing price which was unprecedented.
My Brother-in-law was a Real Estate Broker and he said the mortgage industry was handing out crazy loans to people who couldn't afford them. Then in 2006-7, you started hearing whispers about failing mortgages. In 2007, it really started going downhill and in 2008 we all saw what happened.
When you have a president encouraging mortgage companies to sell mortgages with little or no downpayment to unqualified buyers, that's what's gonna happen.
Sure, there are others to blame but Bush Jr. was the one that got the ball rolling, imho.
Judge Juan M. Merchan wrote that Trump “appears to take the position that his situation and this case are unique and that the pre-trial publicity will never subside. However, this view does not align with reality.”
Insane Level of Addiction
I've worked in real estate my entire career so it's something I'm passionate about and am really into and although I worked in the commercial side of the business back in the aught's I remember those heady days of multiple bids and things going way over asking etc. It's really not all that different from today and again the big driver is easy money from the Fed. I believe you're about 20 years older than me so you would probably have memories of the high interest rate periods of the '70's and early '80's and what that did to property values. Very different than what we've seen over the past 15 - 20 years.
From a political perspective there are multiple layers here. You referenced the 2003 Act that pushed for more grants for minorities to buy homes. I remember TTQ64 posting here that America was/is a racist country and now racist whites are blaming programs to help minorities buy homes as the cause of the crash. Don't get me wrong I'm not saying she is right but it's an interesting dynamic in all of this.
You can go back to the Clinton Administration which pushed for increased home ownership, especially increased minority home ownership, and the easing of lending standards to do so. From a political perspective it's been a very bi-partisan movement to increase minority home ownership (on the surface that's a very good thing but as always the devil is in the details).
And back to the original premise the stock market isn't the economy. Last year our economy was shut down and we were in a huge recession and yet the stock market soared. What drives investors is far more than the previous quarters GDP growth.
Joe Capitalist (06-11-2021)
Verified User
What goes up, comes down, which is the reason past Presidents minus one seldom attached themselves to developments on the Stock Market
Senior Member
JPP Contributor
Where exactly do you think the American Dream Downpayment Act authorizes NINJA loans?
There doesn't appear to be anything in there that would have caused the crash or even started it. https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/...108publ186.htm
The ADDA makes $200,000,000 available to be granted to low income people as down payment on a house. At an average grant of $20,000 that would only mean it only helped 10,000 people buy homes.
The ADDA was administered by HUD and HUD always required proof of income for their loan guarantees. The problem was in NINJA loans that had nothing to do with HUD and were not guaranteed by the government. These were in turn bundled and sold as AAA and backed by securities claiming they were AAA. Proper oversight might have seen these problems before they occurred but the decision to help 5-10,000 people buy a home wasn't what was driving the market.
"We are all born ignorant, but one must work hard to remain stupid."
"Any fool can criticize, condemn and complain - and most fools do."
Racism is a disease
Just read the article:
https://alt.fifty-plus.friends.narki...rtgage-bonfire
And check out the timeline. Bush Jr's American Dream Downpayment Act was signed in 2002. The Real Estate bubble occurred in 2004-2005. The mortgage collapse started in 2007.
Judge Juan M. Merchan wrote that Trump “appears to take the position that his situation and this case are unique and that the pre-trial publicity will never subside. However, this view does not align with reality.”
Back To Reality
Put options do well, if stocks crash. Buying a put option when trump was president was betting he would be a failure.
Classical Liberal
TBH , I don't really care who is president. None have had an iota of influence on my life.
Back To Reality
trump did not have "an iota" of influence on your life? Biden is not doing "an iota" of damage to your life? Good to know.
anonymoose (06-12-2021)
Classical Liberal
Actually I placed them about mid March after the start of the Wuflu hoax. Instead of selling off like most inexperienced investors I placed put options which were filled in less than two weeks.
I’m sure you remember the market came roaring back very quickly. I made out like a bandit.
Back To Reality
Buying put options, you would want the market to crash unexpectedly. If the market comes roaring back, those put options would become worthless.
Let's say a stock is at $19, and many expect it to go lower. You buy a put option with a strike price of $20. That is the option to sell the stock at $20. You need to pay at least a dollar for it, because it is one dollar above the current price, but also a few more dollars to pay for the probability (in the minds of others) that the stock will go lower. So you pay $3 for the option. Now if the stock goes to $40, you will have no incentive to sell the stock at $20, and that option will be worthless.
Now if the stock goes to $10, you can sell the stock at $20, minus the the $3 you paid for the option, you just made $7. That is over a 200% return, nice work if you can get it. The way buying a put option works is you are betting the underlying asset (a stock in this case) will go down.
Classical Liberal
It’s probably lost on you that those two statements are a contradiction. But the latter is correct.
You really have no clue how options work, do you? The option contract is filled once the market price decreases to the price where I bought the contract. If the stock increases after that I bought a good stock for cheap. If it continues to go down I’m fucked.
Verified User
Minorities were not the problem. It was the banks selling mortgage backed securities . The banks were making mega billion off of them. So when good mortgages were used up, they started using weaker ones. They also instructed their mortgage companies to drop qualifications for mortgages. It did not matter to banks because they had no liabilities. They packaged off the mortgages and sold them immediately. They also pressured the rating agencies to rate the increasingly bad securities as AAA.
You would get emails and phone calls several times a day trying to talk you into a remortgage or buying a new house. The deals just got better and better. `You could but a house and wind it with cash in your pocket. The home market had been on a roll for over a generation. Who thought it would go bad?
Banks even sold insurance in the worsening securities.
It was not a minorities problem. They were just a symptom of what happens when regulation is gutted and unfettered greed is in control.
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