Gallup poll shows largest increase in Democratic Party affiliation in a decade

[Joe Capitalist]

More Americans identify as Democrats than*Republicans by a margin*that hasn't been seen in a decade, according to*a report released by Gallup on Wednesday.
An average of 49% of adults age 18 and older reported Democratic Party affiliation or said*they are independent with Democratic leanings throughout the first quarter of 2021, the pollster reported. The survey was conducted by phone from January-March.*

n comparison, 40% of adults identified as Republican or Republican-leaning. The 9% difference is the Democrats' largest advantage since the fourth quarter of 2012, according to the report.
The remaining 11% of respondents were political independents with no partisan leanings.
Democrats have typically held a 4 to 6 point advantage over Republicans. *Shortly before the first quarter of the year, the gap in affiliation was virtually nonexistent before Democrats'*advantage widened by 9%.
The report also noted a 6%*increase in independents; from 38% in the fourth quarter of 2020 to 44% in the first quarter of 2021. It's the highest percentage since 2013, when 46% of survey respondents identified as independents. The rise correlates with the decline in Republican Party identification, just as in 2013, when*the GOP saw a drop in the popularity during the government shutdown over the Affordable Care Act.*

Party identification is asked on every survey Gallup conducts, according to senior editor Jeff Jones, who also authored the report.
"It's something that we think is important to track to give a sense to the relevant strength of the two parties at any one point in time and how party preferences are responding to events," Jones*told USA TODAY.
The poll's margin of sampling error was plus or minus 2 percentage points.
Events encourage party loyalty, Jones said. Gallup's latest measurements on political affiliation were taken during President Joe Biden's inauguration — days after*supporters of former President Donald Trump attacked the U.S. Capitol building on Jan. 6.
"I think we're seeing a similar dynamic with Trump leaving office, again with the very low approval rating and (the excitement around) Biden coming into office," Jones said.

Trump ended his presidency*with a 29% job*approval rating — his lowest ever while in office, USA TODAY earlier*reported.
The passing*of the COVID-19 relief package in March, a decline in new infections and deaths from the coronavirus and the*push for mass vaccinations preceded a rise in affinity for the Democratic Party, according to Gallup.
Fewer people are dying from COVID-19 thanks to vaccination efforts*targeting vulnerable populations. But the U.S. continues to report high levels of cases.

Past jumps in*party affiliations*
The bump in Democratic affiliation following Biden's inauguration mirrors that of former President Barack Obama's first term, Jones said.
"That was really the high point that we've seen; kind of the 2006-2009 period, when really the majority of Americans either identified as Democrats outright or were independents but they leaned toward the party," he said.*"Our data on this only goes back to the '90s, but it's pretty much the only time we consistently had one party with the majority of Americans on their side."
Republican advantages, though rarer and more short-lived, followed the Gulf War in 1991 — when George H.W. Bush was in office — and the 9/11 terrorist attacks during President George W. Bush's term, according to Gallup. More people also reported GOP affiliation after the 1994, 2010 and 2014 midterm elections.
Whether the Republican Party can regain advantage during the 2022 midterm elections may rely on the successes of the Biden administration, according to Jones.

"A lot of it is going to depend on how things go over the course of the year. If things get better with the coronavirus and the economy bounces back and a lot of people expect Biden can keep relatively strong approval ratings, then that will be better for the Democrats," Jones said.*"But if things start to get worse — unemployment goes up or coronavirus gets worse*— then his approval is going to go down. It's going to make things a lot better for the Republican Party for the midterm next year."

[katzgar]

More Americans identify as Democrats than*Republicans by a margin*that hasn't been seen in a decade, according to*a report released by Gallup on Wednesday.
An average of 49% of adults age 18 and older reported Democratic Party affiliation or said*they are independent with Democratic leanings throughout the first quarter of 2021, the pollster reported. The survey was conducted by phone from January-March.*

n comparison, 40% of adults identified as Republican or Republican-leaning. The 9% difference is the Democrats' largest advantage since the fourth quarter of 2012, according to the report.
The remaining 11% of respondents were political independents with no partisan leanings.
Democrats have typically held a 4 to 6 point advantage over Republicans. *Shortly before the first quarter of the year, the gap in affiliation was virtually nonexistent before Democrats'*advantage widened by 9%.
The report also noted a 6%*increase in independents; from 38% in the fourth quarter of 2020 to 44% in the first quarter of 2021. It's the highest percentage since 2013, when 46% of survey respondents identified as independents. The rise correlates with the decline in Republican Party identification, just as in 2013, when*the GOP saw a drop in the popularity during the government shutdown over the Affordable Care Act.*

Party identification is asked on every survey Gallup conducts, according to senior editor Jeff Jones, who also authored the report.
"It's something that we think is important to track to give a sense to the relevant strength of the two parties at any one point in time and how party preferences are responding to events," Jones*told USA TODAY.
The poll's margin of sampling error was plus or minus 2 percentage points.
Events encourage party loyalty, Jones said. Gallup's latest measurements on political affiliation were taken during President Joe Biden's inauguration — days after*supporters of former President Donald Trump attacked the U.S. Capitol building on Jan. 6.
"I think we're seeing a similar dynamic with Trump leaving office, again with the very low approval rating and (the excitement around) Biden coming into office," Jones said.

Trump ended his presidency*with a 29% job*approval rating — his lowest ever while in office, USA TODAY earlier*reported.
The passing*of the COVID-19 relief package in March, a decline in new infections and deaths from the coronavirus and the*push for mass vaccinations preceded a rise in affinity for the Democratic Party, according to Gallup.
Fewer people are dying from COVID-19 thanks to vaccination efforts*targeting vulnerable populations. But the U.S. continues to report high levels of cases.

Past jumps in*party affiliations*
The bump in Democratic affiliation following Biden's inauguration mirrors that of former President Barack Obama's first term, Jones said.
"That was really the high point that we've seen; kind of the 2006-2009 period, when really the majority of Americans either identified as Democrats outright or were independents but they leaned toward the party," he said.*"Our data on this only goes back to the '90s, but it's pretty much the only time we consistently had one party with the majority of Americans on their side."
Republican advantages, though rarer and more short-lived, followed the Gulf War in 1991 — when George H.W. Bush was in office — and the 9/11 terrorist attacks during President George W. Bush's term, according to Gallup. More people also reported GOP affiliation after the 1994, 2010 and 2014 midterm elections.
Whether the Republican Party can regain advantage during the 2022 midterm elections may rely on the successes of the Biden administration, according to Jones.

"A lot of it is going to depend on how things go over the course of the year. If things get better with the coronavirus and the economy bounces back and a lot of people expect Biden can keep relatively strong approval ratings, then that will be better for the Democrats," Jones said.*"But if things start to get worse — unemployment goes up or coronavirus gets worse*— then his approval is going to go down. It's going to make things a lot better for the Republican Party for the midterm next year."

Trump drove the educated Republicans into the arms of the Democrats

[NiftyNiblick]

I joined the Democratic Party in 1967.
That comes to 50+ years of loyalty when I don't even like them that much.
The one and only viable alternate option, however, has always been horrifically repugnant enough that I stay with my original choice.

[LV426]

I joined the Democratic Party in 1967.
That comes to 50+ years of loyalty when I don't even like them that much.
The one and only viable alternate option, however, has always been horrifically repugnant enough that I stay with my original choice.

I have been voting in elections since the 90's and I have never, ever cast a vote for a Republican in any race, ever.

If a Republican is running unopposed, I either write myself in or just not even vote for that position.

I cannot in good conscience cast a ballot for that party.

[Joe Capitalist]

Trump drove the educated Republicans into the arms of the Democrats

I know a plethora of lifetime Republicans who left the party because of Trump.
Look at it this way. When Trump was elected, the Senate and the House had Republican majorities.
After Trump, they both have Democrat majorities.
What more evidence do you need?

Trump destroyed the ReQublican Party. It's infested with radical, extremist Qanon loonies like Goetz, Hawley, Boebert, MTG and others.

[katzgar]

I know a plethora of lifetime Republicans who left the party because of Trump.
Look at it this way. When Trump was elected, the Senate and the House had Republican majorities.
After Trump, they both have Democrat majorities.
What more evidence do you need?

Trump destroyed the ReQublican Party. It's infested with radical, extremist Qanon loonies like Goetz, Hawley, Boebert, MTG and others.

Agreed the the ones that are most annoying are the ones that still claim to be Republicans in the end anybody that's a republican today is a racist and homophobe even if they want to pretend that they're not

[Joe Capitalist]

Agreed the the ones that are most annoying are the ones that still claim to be Republicans in the end anybody that's a republican today is a racist and homophobe even if they want to pretend that they're not

I've seen that as well. Those RINO ReQublicans who passionately supported Trump have also exposed their racist and homophobic tendencies.

America hates racists. Racists are not American.

[LV426]

I've seen that as well. Those RINO ReQublicans who passionately supported Trump have also exposed their racist and homophobic tendencies.
America hates racists. Racists are not American.

I agree with the sentiment, but I feel like racism is wholly American, and Americans like their racism. The institutions on which this country was founded were all racist, and policies today have racism at their core, as we are seeing with these voter suppression laws.

Most Americans are OK with racism until that racism starts affecting them personally.

Racism is a fact of life in America and will always be so long as the racist institutions go unchecked and unreformed.

[Joe Capitalist]

I agree with the sentiment, but I feel like racism is wholly American, and Americans like their racism. The institutions on which this country was founded were all racist, and policies today have racism at their core, as we are seeing with these voter suppression laws.

Most Americans are OK with racism until that racism starts affecting them personally.

Racism is a fact of life in America and will always be so long as the racist institutions go unchecked and unreformed.

I think that a tad extreme. It's been 150 years since The Emancipation Proclamation and 60 years since De-Segregation.
America hasn't eradicated racism but we're making good progress. The ball is rolling in the right direction, starting with kicking Trump out of the White House.

[LV426]

I think that a tad extreme. It's been 150 years since The Emancipation Proclamation and 60 years since De-Segregation.

So do you think society is less racist now than it was 60 years ago? Cuz I don't. Not when Nazis are openly marching in the streets and not living in fear, like they should.

America hasn't eradicated racism but we're making good progress.

I wouldn't consider mass incarceration of largely Black and Brown bodies as "progress". In fact, I see it as a regression.

The ball is rolling in the right direction, starting with kicking Drumpf out of the White House.

Agree totally. Like I said, I agree with the sentiment, but I just don't see racism being cured without massive structural changes to our economy, justice system, and government.

[Doc Dutch]

Trump drove the educated Republicans into the arms of the Democrats

Unfortunately there's truth in that statement. OTOH, the implosion of the Republican Party has been happening over the past 25 years.

When a party says "Either toe the line or GTFO!", that party inevitably loses members.

[Walt]

An average of 49% of adults age 18 and older reported Democratic Party affiliation or said*they are independent with Democratic leanings throughout the first quarter of 2021, the pollster reported. The survey was conducted by phone from January-March.*

Things are looking bad for the Republicans, but I am sure that when they complete their review of what went wrong.... What? They are refusing to review what went wrong? They are well and truly screwed.

[Drummie123]

More Americans identify as Democrats than*Republicans by a margin*that hasn't been seen in a decade, according to*a report released by Gallup on Wednesday.

And hundreds of thousands of those living in German occupied areas of Europe in the 1930's and 40's joined the Nazis and/or collaborated with them to avoid political or religious persecution.

[Joe Capitalist]

Things are looking bad for the Republicans, but I am sure that when they complete their review of what went wrong.... What? They are refusing to review what went wrong? They are well and truly screwed.

Rather than change their policies to win more votes, the RepubliQuans are trying to change voting laws to disenfranchise voters.

I've never seen the RepubliQan party in such disarray and with so many radical extremists following them. It's scary.