Originally Posted by
Legion
That's exactly what some are predicting, Cap.
Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, a DEMOCRAT, says the hazard of a stimulus package that is too large is the risk of inflation, which many economists try to forecast by looking at the gap between actual and potential economic output.
That gap is currently about $50 billion a month, based on a Congressional Budget Office analysis, but the stimulus would generate about $150 billion a month, three times the size, Summers says. If lots of customer demand can’t be met by a limited capacity of labor, factory machines and other supplies, that likely would drive up wages and prices.
The Biden plan could “set off inflationary pressures of a kind we have not seen in a generation, with consequences for the value of the dollar and financial stability,” Summers wrote in The Washington Post.
The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure was at 1.3% in December and the Fed has vowed to keep its key interest rate near zero even if inflation rises above its 2% target for some time. But an unexpected surge in prices could force the central bank to raise interest rates more abruptly than anticipated, possibly causing a recession, Morgan Stanley says.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2021/02/25/covid-relief-bill-stimulus-check-critics-bidens-stimulus-goes-too-far/6804219002/
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