**BREAKING NEWS***' We’ve got to stop the bleeding': Democrats sound alarm in Miami

[Bourbon]

KEEP HOPE ALIVE

[The Biden Administration]

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/1...mocrats-433643


I know this is from the wildly right wing Politico so JPP marxists are likely to ignore it. But, I will post it anyway.

Only the usual douchebags will be thread banned

Made-up lies. No reputable source is reporting that.

[The Biden Administration]

Party officials in Florida’s most populous county are sweating weak early voting turnout among several key groups.
This means that the GOP is relying on low voter turn out to win.

They always try to suppress minority voters because they know they cannot win on issues.

[Trumpet]

They always try to suppress minority voters because they know they cannot win on issues.

My point exactly.

[canceled.2021.3]

Made-up lies. No reputable source is reporting that.

welcome to your thread ban

[BRUTALITOPS]

after this election will you finally stop following Nate Silver?

nope, I still think he is more right than not, there simply is too many polls showing the same trends. The only way trump wins if if there is just massive systemic issues with polling - which, yes, could be psosible, but it would be unprecedented. It's hard to say that we are more likely facing an unprecedented level of polling erroor.

HOWEVER I do have an almost irrational level of faith that maybe.. just maybe, trump can pull it off and shock the world again. The Florida results alone are keeping that fire alive in me. Biden is weak and everyone knows it. There is clearly a shy trump voter affect. Trump is crushing it with rallies. I remember 2016 and everyone said rallies don't matter. I think they do matter because they clearly show wide support and enthusiasm.

The way I see it now, silver has trump at around 10%. I think trump has better chances than that, maybe 20%, which is a totoaly reasonable shot at still winning the election. so that's kinda good i guess?

My main concerns now are twofold:

1) trump lost the suburbs. He was up 4pts in the suburbs in 2016, this year he is down 9. 13pt swing. So even if we are up with black and hispanic voters, suburbanites are still a far bigger block. Pretty lame that the most racist president of all time might lose because self hating white voters believe they know what is best for minorities. Also the extremely salty and butthurt white women have gone full pussyhat.

2) I worry that the republicans early voting may not all be voting for trump. A lot of 65+ have switched to biden and so there could be understated republicans for biden effect. The reason too explain the 94% GOP support for trump could be that those are just the diehards and other republicans (weak republicans) may have gone soft/left the party/not bothered to participate in primarys. On the other hand, republican registration is up. So some conflicting data.

[canceled.2021.3]

nope, I still think he is more right than not, there simply is too many polls showing the same trends. The only way trump wins if if there is just massive systemic issues with polling - which, yes, could be psosible, but it would be unprecedented. It's hard to say that we are more likely facing an unprecedented level of polling erroor.

HOWEVER I do have an almost irrational level of faith that maybe.. just maybe, trump can pull it off and shock the world again. The Florida results alone are keeping that fire alive in me. Biden is weak and everyone knows it. There is clearly a shy trump voter affect. Trump is crushing it with rallies. I remember 2016 and everyone said rallies don't matter. I think they do matter because they clearly show wide support and enthusiasm.

The way I see it now, silver has trump at around 10%. I think trump has better chances than that, maybe 20%, which is a totoaly reasonable shot at still winning the election. so that's kinda good i guess?

My main concerns now are twofold:

1) trump lost the suburbs. He was up 4pts in the suburbs in 2016, this year he is down 9. 13pt swing. So even if we are up with black and hispanic voters, suburbanites are still a far bigger block. Pretty lame that the most racist president of all time might lose because self hating white voters believe they know what is best for minorities. Also the extremely salty and butthurt white women have gone full pussyhat.

2) I worry that the republicans early voting may not all be voting for trump. A lot of 65+ have switched to biden and so there could be understated republicans for biden effect. The reason too explain the 94% GOP support for trump could be that those are just the diehards and other republicans (weak republicans) may have gone soft/left the party/not bothered to participate in primarys. On the other hand, republican registration is up. So some conflicting data.

so the pollsters could be right AND wrong at the same time

one piece of phenomena I have seen reported from Trump rallies is that at least 20% of people who are showing up are NOT republicans. And 20% or more have never voted before. Now imagine if Trump brings in 20% of people across the board that have never voted before? The pollsters aren't going to capture that because they have no way of capturing it. Their models start off with prior registered voters so they would be missed.

It is great discussion. I know you are only looking at the data and if I were ONLY looking at the data, I would conclude that Trump has no chance. However, I am looking at more than just the polls. And if you ignore the polls and look at everything else it is a Trump win. Guess we will find out next Tuesday.

Unfortunately for you when I am right, we won't be able to share the throne as JPPs most brilliant political minds. I will stand alone

[BRUTALITOPS]

Unfortunately for you when I am right, we won't be able to share the throne as JPPs most brilliant political minds. I will stand alone

you can have it, i'll be so ecstatic I wont even care lol

[Darth Omar]

I’ve read so much conflicting analysis [not just here] I get the idea nobody really knows what’s going to happen lol.

Part of the problem, I think, is Trump [more precisely, his supporters] represent a confounder/uncontrollable variable in the equation to the extent the polling data isn’t as accurate as it might be under normal circumstances.

In fact, there are signs of this in some of the non-polling indicators.

[Callinectes]

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/1...mocrats-433643


I know this is from the wildly right wing Politico so JPP marxists are likely to ignore it. But, I will post it anyway.

Only the usual douchebags will be thread banned

Why thread ban cawacko? I don't agree with 100% of what he says, but he is one of the most respectful people on this board(besides me, of course!)

[canceled.2021.3]

Why thread ban cawacko? I don't agree with 100% of what he says, but he is one of the most respectful people on this board(besides me, of course!)

He is a RINO NeverTrumper douche

[IBDaMann]

just for frame of reference, nate silver has it such that if biden were to lose florida, he is no longer the favorite to win the election

[Nordberg]

Nearly everybody panics and worries just before an election. You are reading too much into it. Trump has decided not to attend his election party. Does that mean he gave up?


yes, it does.

[Phantasmal]

Nearly everybody panics and worries just before an election. You are reading too much into it. Trump has decided not to attend his election party. Does that mean he gave up?


yes, it does.

It is very strange that not only is he not attending, they have cancelled it.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/thehill...national%3famp

[BartenderElite]

Biden should win, but I'm definitely preparing for the worst.

Voter turnout really hurt Dems in the last one. It was decided by under 100,000 votes in 3 states.

There seems to be much more cognizance of that fact this time around - no one is taking that for granted. So, Dems will have MORE voters this time - and Trump has done nothing to expand his base or coalition.