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Thread: Jarod can you make sense of this for us?

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    I PREDICT BIDEN WILL NOT WIN FLORIDA.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beijing Buyden View Post
    well of course you can craft a map that shows him winning, but you are giving him ZERO margin for error and are assuming he is going to run the table in the rust belt. I am not saying it is impossible, but your map while possible leaves very little room for error

    Also, when was the last time someone won the Presidency without winning Florida and Ohio? Yes, people say all the time it hasn't happened until it happens, but it is a pretty strong correlation that if you want to ignore, you are free to.

    I also think it is very unlikely that Buyden runs the table in the rust belt. I will say this. Ohio is going to give us the answer. If Trump wins by the same margin in Ohio that he won in 2016 then he wins Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania again. If Trump only wins Ohio by 3 points or less then he likely doesn't take those states.

    You should listen to Michael Moore's interview today. Outside of some of the batshit crazy stuff he is saying, he has a good pulse on Michigan and he is putting up the warning flares that all is not copasetic in Michigan for Buyden. You can ignore Moore if you want, but he was waving his arms in 2016 too. And for some reason you guys think that the pollsters that got it wrong in 2016 have fixed it for 2020. I don't think they have.
    I disagree, you seem very anxious, but at the risk of ruining your weekend, I fully expect Biden to lose Ohio, but win Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Minnesota. He is more likely to win all four of those states than Trump is to win Texas. Before you misunderstand again, I FULLY expect Trump win Texas.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jarod View Post
    I disagree, you seem very anxious, but at the risk of ruining your weekend, I fully expect Biden to lose Ohio, but win Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Minnesota. He is more likely to win all four of those states than Trump is to win Texas. Before you misunderstand again, I FULLY expect Trump win Texas.
    you aren't ruining anyone's weekend. you don't have that power over me

    The only anxiety I have is the lefts ability to cheat. Absent that, I am fully confident in Trump winning the election

    Biden would have to buck decades of political history to win the Presidency without Florida and Ohio

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    Quote Originally Posted by Beijing Buyden View Post
    you aren't ruining anyone's weekend. you don't have that power over me

    The only anxiety I have is the lefts ability to cheat. Absent that, I am fully confident in Trump winning the election

    Biden would have to buck decades of political history to win the Presidency without Florida and Ohio
    There is a scenario, every four years, where the winner defied something that has never been done to pull off a win. If that offers you comfort to come up with one.. go for it.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jarod View Post
    There is a scenario, every four years, where the winner defied something that has never been done to pull off a win. If that offers you comfort to come up with one.. go for it.
    so answer me this

    do you think Trump will do better this year than McCain did in 2008? Romney 2012?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Beijing Buyden View Post
    so answer me this

    do you think Trump will do better this year than McCain did in 2008? Romney 2012?
    I don’t know, I’d have to go back and look at how McAden Romney dick. I don’t have that in my memory. It’s the weekend, so I’m away from my computer most of the time, but if I have an opportunity, I’ll look into it. It’s an interesting question
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    I saw a pollster who said if you give Trump every break he got in 2016, Biden would have 335 electoral votes.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jarod View Post
    https://www.270towin.com/maps/PR3r0

    You see how Biden wins without Florida or Ohio?


    https://www.270towin.com/maps/PR3r0
    Looking pretty good, much better than the numerous Trump* blowout predictions.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beijing Buyden View Post
    well of course you can craft a map that shows him winning, but you are giving him ZERO margin for error and are assuming he is going to run the table in the rust belt. I am not saying it is impossible, but your map while possible leaves very little room for error

    Also, when was the last time someone won the Presidency without winning Florida and Ohio? Yes, people say all the time it hasn't happened until it happens, but it is a pretty strong correlation that if you want to ignore, you are free to.

    I also think it is very unlikely that Buyden runs the table in the rust belt. I will say this. Ohio is going to give us the answer. If Trump wins by the same margin in Ohio that he won in 2016 then he wins Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania again. If Trump only wins Ohio by 3 points or less then he likely doesn't take those states.

    You should listen to Michael Moore's interview today. Outside of some of the batshit crazy stuff he is saying, he has a good pulse on Michigan and he is putting up the warning flares that all is not copasetic in Michigan for Buyden. You can ignore Moore if you want, but he was waving his arms in 2016 too. And for some reason you guys think that the pollsters that got it wrong in 2016 have fixed it for 2020. I don't think they have.
    So based on your Ohio prediction you still think Biden gets PA?
    4,487

    *IMPEACHED, ONE TERM LOSER


    "IN A COUPLE OF DAYS THE NUMBERS WILL BE 0"

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jarod View Post
    I PREDICT BIDEN WILL NOT WIN FLORIDA.
    I was correct
    4,487

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    "IN A COUPLE OF DAYS THE NUMBERS WILL BE 0"

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jarod View Post
    I was correct
    So do you think the media was lame for not calling Florida for Trump sooner? Take off your partisan blinders for a change. It was clear very early that Biden was going to lose Florida. Once they showed the Miami/Dade numbers there was ZERO chance of Biden winning Florida.

    So why did all of the media outlets not call Florida sooner?

    I have my theory

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    Quote Originally Posted by Teflon Don View Post
    So do you think the media was lame for not calling Florida for Trump sooner? Take off your partisan blinders for a change. It was clear very early that Biden was going to lose Florida. Once they showed the Miami/Dade numbers there was ZERO chance of Biden winning Florida.

    So why did all of the media outlets not call Florida sooner?

    I have my theory
    I dont know, I would like to hear their thinking on that subject.


    Some have not even called Arizona or Nevada yet.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jarod View Post
    So based on your Ohio prediction you still think Biden gets PA?
    don't know

    I was certain that if Trump won Ohio by same margins as 2016 he would have very good shot at the rest of the rust belt

    I am not sure what message the left will take from this election, but it should not be one of absolute validation of them and repudiation of Trump

    Nobody predicted Trump over performing by 4% from 2016 in Florida.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jarod View Post
    I dont know, I would like to hear their thinking on that subject.


    Some have not even called Arizona or Nevada yet.

    I think the media did everything in its power to make sure that Trump never had an electoral college lead last night. Including Fox News. At one point in the broadcast, Britt Hume called them out for not calling FL, TX and OH.

    Anyone who thinks that there was any good reason to not call Florida earlier needs to explain it. Think about if it were in reverse and Biden were performing as well or better in Miami Dade as Hillary did in 2016 and someone called Florida for Trump? You would be screaming to high heaven about it

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    Quote Originally Posted by Teflon Don View Post
    don't know

    I was certain that if Trump won Ohio by same margins as 2016 he would have very good shot at the rest of the rust belt

    I am not sure what message the left will take from this election, but it should not be one of absolute validation of them and repudiation of Trump

    Nobody predicted Trump over performing by 4% from 2016 in Florida.
    I agree about the message. But A win is a win.
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    "IN A COUPLE OF DAYS THE NUMBERS WILL BE 0"

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