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Thread: Jarod can you make sense of this for us?

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    Default Jarod can you make sense of this for us?

    https://media.telemundo51.com/2020/1...esults1020.pdf

    Since you are such a "data" driven guy and a Florida expert. What does this data tell you about the state of the race in Florida?

    Now bear in mind, this is from Telemundo so not exactly a pro Trump organization

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    bump

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    bump again

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    Is Jarod ignoring reality

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    bump again

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    Quote Originally Posted by Beijing Buyden View Post
    https://media.telemundo51.com/2020/1...esults1020.pdf

    Since you are such a "data" driven guy and a Florida expert. What does this data tell you about the state of the race in Florida?

    Now bear in mind, this is from Telemundo so not exactly a pro Trump organization
    Thanks for bumping....

    That's about what I would have expected, Cubans are VERY pro-Republica, have been since the 1960's.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jarod View Post
    Thanks for bumping....

    That's about what I would have expected, Cubans are VERY pro-Republica, have been since the 1960's.
    you don't think it is significant that Biden is only polling at 48% and 5% ahead of Trump in Florida? Crooked Hillary won in that demographic by 29 points in 2016 and lost the state. How can you reconcile this? Is telemundo wrong? An "outlier"?

    What about Politico sending up the warning cries about lower turnout in Miami/Dade and Broward?

    Is your head in the sand? Do you refuse to listen to reality?

    Do you think Biden has a path to the Presidency if he loses Ohio and Florida? I can tell you that Trump sure as shit doesn't. But, I don't know any serious person who thinks Biden is going to win Ohio. Hell, he isn't even spending any time there

  8. The Following User Says Thank You to Beijing Buyden For This Post:

    Grokmaster (10-30-2020)

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    Quote Originally Posted by Beijing Buyden View Post
    you don't think it is significant that Biden is only polling at 48% and 5% ahead of Trump in Florida? Crooked Hillary won in that demographic by 29 points in 2016 and lost the state. How can you reconcile this? Is telemundo wrong? An "outlier"?

    What about Politico sending up the warning cries about lower turnout in Miami/Dade and Broward?

    Is your head in the sand? Do you refuse to listen to reality?

    Do you think Biden has a path to the Presidency if he loses Ohio and Florida? I can tell you that Trump sure as shit doesn't. But, I don't know any serious person who thinks Biden is going to win Ohio. Hell, he isn't even spending any time there
    I think Biden does not need Ohio or Florida. I think while Biden has lost some ground with Hispanics he appears to have made up ground with other groups like those over 70. I do not expect Trump to win Florida, Republicans often outperform in close Florida elections. Look at the last governors race.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beijing Buyden View Post
    you don't think it is significant that Biden is only polling at 48% and 5% ahead of Trump in Florida? Crooked Hillary won in that demographic by 29 points in 2016 and lost the state. How can you reconcile this? Is telemundo wrong? An "outlier"?

    What about Politico sending up the warning cries about lower turnout in Miami/Dade and Broward?

    Is your head in the sand? Do you refuse to listen to reality?

    Do you think Biden has a path to the Presidency if he loses Ohio and Florida? I can tell you that Trump sure as shit doesn't. But, I don't know any serious person who thinks Biden is going to win Ohio. Hell, he isn't even spending any time there
    ...AND THERE'S THE RUB... ^^^^^^^^
    TRUMP WILL TAKE FORTY STATES...UNLESS THE SAME IDIOTS WHO BROUGHT US THE 2020 DUNCE-O-CRAT IOWA CLUSTERFUCK CONTINUE THEIR SEDITIOUS ACTIVITIES...THEN HE WILL WIN EVEN MORE .


    De Oppresso Liber

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    I do think Trump is going to win Michigan and Pennsylvania Minnesota and Wisconsin. From there, I really do not believe he needs Florida or Ohio. If however he were to win Florida or Ohio, then I think we would be talking about a blowout.
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    https://www.270towin.com/maps/PR3r0

    You see how Biden wins without Florida or Ohio?


    https://www.270towin.com/maps/PR3r0
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jarod View Post
    I think Biden does not need Ohio or Florida. I think while Biden has lost some ground with Hispanics he appears to have made up ground with other groups like those over 70. I do not expect Trump to win Florida, Republicans often outperform in close Florida elections. Look at the last governors race.
    I think you are purposely missing the point. Biden is underperforming significantly in a portion of the state that is critical to him winning that state. He is bleeding support according to multiple sources. It sounds like you are going off of "feelings" and not facts on the ground or reality.

    Now as to the Governors race. It should be noted that EVERY single poll had your boy Gillum the crack addict sex slave up big time over DeSantis. Only one poll called it for DeSantis and that was Traflagar. Now how did EVERY other polling agency get Florida wrong? They had one state to focus on and they all got it wrong except one.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Beijing Buyden View Post
    I think you are purposely missing the point. Biden is underperforming significantly in a portion of the state that is critical to him winning that state. He is bleeding support according to multiple sources. It sounds like you are going off of "feelings" and not facts on the ground or reality.

    Now as to the Governors race. It should be noted that EVERY single poll had your boy Gillum the crack addict sex slave up big time over DeSantis. Only one poll called it for DeSantis and that was Traflagar. Now how did EVERY other polling agency get Florida wrong? They had one state to focus on and they all got it wrong except one.
    I do nto think Biden will win Florida. I don't know how more clear I can write.

    Florida has a long history of the Republican winning when its close, happens so often you can count on it. That's why I think Biden has a better chance in Georgia than Florida.

    I have never expected Biden to win Florida, if he does its gravy.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jarod View Post
    https://www.270towin.com/maps/PR3r0

    You see how Biden wins without Florida or Ohio?


    https://www.270towin.com/maps/PR3r0


    well of course you can craft a map that shows him winning, but you are giving him ZERO margin for error and are assuming he is going to run the table in the rust belt. I am not saying it is impossible, but your map while possible leaves very little room for error

    Also, when was the last time someone won the Presidency without winning Florida and Ohio? Yes, people say all the time it hasn't happened until it happens, but it is a pretty strong correlation that if you want to ignore, you are free to.

    I also think it is very unlikely that Buyden runs the table in the rust belt. I will say this. Ohio is going to give us the answer. If Trump wins by the same margin in Ohio that he won in 2016 then he wins Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania again. If Trump only wins Ohio by 3 points or less then he likely doesn't take those states.

    You should listen to Michael Moore's interview today. Outside of some of the batshit crazy stuff he is saying, he has a good pulse on Michigan and he is putting up the warning flares that all is not copasetic in Michigan for Buyden. You can ignore Moore if you want, but he was waving his arms in 2016 too. And for some reason you guys think that the pollsters that got it wrong in 2016 have fixed it for 2020. I don't think they have.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jarod View Post
    I do nto think Biden will win Florida. I don't know how more clear I can write.

    Florida has a long history of the Republican winning when its close, happens so often you can count on it. That's why I think Biden has a better chance in Georgia than Florida.

    I have never expected Biden to win Florida, if he does its gravy.
    I know this, you aren't sounding as confident as you were say two or three weeks ago. Just sayin

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