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Thread: There is no evidence of herd immunity soon

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    Quote Originally Posted by PoliTalker View Post
    I just ran a little math.

    The world death rate from confirmed cases of coronavirus is officially 3%.

    There are 331,000,000 people in the USA.

    If the infection rate reached 100%, then 3% of the USA population would be expected to die.

    .03 * 331,000,000 = 9,930,000 people. Almost 10 million Americans.

    But the theory is that through herd immunity we would never reach 100% infection rate.

    If predictions are correct, herd immunity would be reached between 50% and 67% of the population.

    That could give the disease nowhere to go and it would largely die out.

    That would be from .5 * 331,000,000 = 165,500,000 to .67 * 331,000,000 = 221,770,000 people.

    And the numbers of dead would be expected to be from .03 * 165,500,000 = 4,965,000 to .03 * 221,770,000 = 6,653,100 people.

    If this is correct, we would not expect to see herd immunity until the number of dead Americans reaches between 4,965,000 to 6,653,100 people.

    Do we have to have 5 million dead Americans before we can reach herd immunity?
    I ran a little math.

    WHO now guesses that 1/20 cases have been found. WorldOMeters official cases is 44,217,862....x 20 = 884357240.

    Deaths are 1,171,077.

    1,171,077/ 884357240 x 100= .132% death rate.......far below the seasonal flu.




    And the death rate is clearly plummeting.
    This illegal illegitimate regime that runs America is at fault...not me.... they do not represent me and I have long objected to their crimes against humanity.

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    Well- you've no need to socially distance or wear a mask then, have you. Ta ta.
    " First they came for the journalists...
    We don't know what happened after that . "

    Maria Ressa.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Darth Omar View Post
    Remind me again what you do lol.

    Meanwhile, point me to the peer reviewed study that categorically eliminates COVID herd immunity.

    I’ll wait here. Take your time.
    Not possible to do. Unless you can get a group of people to intentionally infect themselves. Maybe you'd like to do that. Covid is a virus. We know the rate of transmission. It's math. You remember math, right?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Hawkeye10 View Post
    I ran a little math.

    WHO now guesses that 1/20 cases have been found. WorldOMeters official cases is 44,217,862....x 20 = 884357240.

    Deaths are 1,171,077.

    1,171,077/ 884357240 x 100= .132% death rate.......far below the seasonal flu.




    And the death rate is clearly plummeting.
    Wow. You don't see the monstrous hole in your theory? Seasonal flu death rate is based on KNOWN CASES. So you now want to take the death rate for known cases for the flu, and use estimated cases ( and your 1 in 20 is utter bullshit btw) for Covid. You are comparing apples and oranges.

    EDIT: Current US death rate is 2.5% (8.9 million cases, 231,000 deaths) There have been 134,000,000 tests. If undiagnosed cases were 20 times higher than the 8.9 million, we would have 180 million cases in the US. Since we have had only 8.9 million positives out of 134,000,000 tests, that is a mathematical impossibility. Total BS.
    Last edited by Concart; 10-27-2020 at 05:46 PM.

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    Herd immunity is the number of young gazelle that make it to the other side. I was sort of hoping for something more civilized.
    Color me naive.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Walt View Post
    The Alt Right claims that we are on the verge of herd immunity, or even that we have herd immunity. If that were true, we would see drastically dropping numbers of cases, we are seeing the opposite. Europe is seeing a second wave, America is seeing a third surge, and every country seems easily susceptible to a new outbreak.

    Being on the verge of herd immunity was a logical hypothesis, but it has been disproven. We are nowhere near herd immunity. And we do not know why. It appears you can get Covid-19 multiple times, which might be the reason. Also it appears that a mild case of Covid-19 does not setoff a strong immunity reaction, and that additional infections can be cumulative. This means that the second, or third time you get it might do more serious harm than the first time. Or maybe just far fewer people have gotten the disease than we first thought (and thus the disease is far more deadly).

    trump's whole policy was maybe he would get lucky. There used to be a chance of that, but right now there is looking to be no chance of that. Now we have to regret no attempt to put a contact tracing system into effect, and no quarantining of the spread of Covid-19.
    you're medically retarded.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Concart View Post
    Wow. You don't see the monstrous hole in your theory? Seasonal flu death rate is based on KNOWN CASES. So you now want to take the death rate for known cases for the flu, and use estimated cases ( and your 1 in 20 is utter bullshit btw) for Covid. You are comparing apples and oranges.
    That's why he is presenting his math in a message board and not to CDC

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    Quote Originally Posted by Concart View Post
    Not possible to do. Unless you can get a group of people to intentionally infect themselves. Maybe you'd like to do that. Covid is a virus. We know the rate of transmission. It's math. You remember math, right?
    Couldn’t find a study so you’re trying to baffle me with bullshit lol.

    Just concede that the jury is still out on COVID herd immunity. Save yourself some embarrassment.
    Coup has started. First of many steps. Impeachment will follow ultimately~WB attorney Mark Zaid, January 2017

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    Quote Originally Posted by Darth Omar View Post
    Couldn’t find a study so you’re trying to baffle me with bullshit lol.

    Just concede that the jury is still out on COVID herd immunity. Save yourself some embarrassment.
    Nope. Math is not bullshit. I get that you believe in magic and voodoo, but in the real world, math applies. There isn't a reputable virologist who believes that herd immunity can be achieved with less than 50%. Most are in the 60-80% range. We are not there except in very small pockets. There is no herd immunity. No one serious believes we've achieved it, here or in Sweden. LOL at you and Sweden. Tell me again about their herd immunity.

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    Quote Originally Posted by anonymoose View Post
    Dont care. Survival of the fittest. Had it (never knew it until tested for the antibodies out of curiosity) , now immune to that strain at least. Humanity will come out stronger and more robust. You pussies can die.
    I won’t get it. I never get sick. Phenomenal genes

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    Quote Originally Posted by Concart View Post
    Nope. Math is not bullshit. I get that you believe in magic and voodoo, but in the real world, math applies. There isn't a reputable virologist who believes that herd immunity can be achieved with less than 50%. Most are in the 60-80% range. We are not there except in very small pockets. There is no herd immunity. No one serious believes we've achieved it, here or in Sweden. LOL at you and Sweden. Tell me again about their herd immunity.
    So, only reputable scientists agree with you and the ones that disagree with you are irreputable lol.

    Lefties. Smh.
    Coup has started. First of many steps. Impeachment will follow ultimately~WB attorney Mark Zaid, January 2017

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    Quote Originally Posted by Darth Omar View Post
    So, only reputable scientists agree with you and the ones that disagree with you are irreputable lol.

    Lefties. Smh.
    Nope. Scott Atlas is not reputable, because he has no expertise in the field. You are not reputable because you have no clue what you're talking about. See how that works? Fauci is reputable. Atlas is not. Birx is reputable, the alien baby doctor is not. Doesn't take a rocket scientist.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Concart View Post
    Nope. Scott Atlas is not reputable, because he has no expertise in the field. You are not reputable because you have no clue what you're talking about. See how that works? Fauci is reputable. Atlas is not. Birx is reputable, the alien baby doctor is not. Doesn't take a rocket scientist.
    Just takes an obnoxious lefty lol.
    Coup has started. First of many steps. Impeachment will follow ultimately~WB attorney Mark Zaid, January 2017

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    Quote Originally Posted by Damocles View Post
    Herd immunity happens with vaccinations, not with everybody catching it... Just sayin'.
    both contribute.
    herd immunity is defined when enough percentage of the population is immune to a disease
    (through vaccination and/or prior illness) and those left are too small a % to sustain outbreaks

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    Hello Darth,

    Quote Originally Posted by Darth Omar View Post
    Well, the facts are these: Herd immunity is a thing; herd immunity has yet to be ruled out.
    It is only a topic of wishful thinking at this point.

    The numbers don't lie. There is no evidence of herd immunity anytime soon.

    Concart pointed out that the current US death rate is 2.5% (8.9 million cases, 231,000 deaths) .

    There are 331,000,000 people in the USA.

    If the R0 of COVID is between 2 and 3 then it would take between 50% and 67% infection rate in which the infections result in natural immunity.

    50% being the minimum number, let's look at that.

    50% of 331,000,000 is 156,500,000 people getting infected and achieving natural immunity.

    2.5% of 156,500,000 = 3,912,500 deaths.

    That's nearly 4 million dead Americans.

    Since we only have 230,000 dead Americans, that means we are nowhere close to herd immunity.

    There ya go. For now, herd immunity has indeed just been mathematically ruled out.
    Personal Ignore Policy PIP: I like civil discourse. I will give you all the respect in the world if you respect me. Mouth off to me, or express overt racism, you will be PERMANENTLY Ignore Listed. Zero tolerance. No exceptions. I'll never read a word you write, even if quoted by another, nor respond to you, nor participate in your threads. ... Ignore the shallow. Cherish the thoughtful. Long Live Civil Discourse, Mutual Respect, and Good Debate! ps: Feel free to adopt my PIP. It works well.

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