There is no evidence of herd immunity soon

[Concart]

Just takes an obnoxious lefty lol.

No, it just takes someone that can multiply. Herd immunity can be calculated based on R0 in an unchecked environment. You flunked math, didn't you?

Based on the estimated R0 for Covid, herd immunity threshold is about 67%. You're welcome.

[Concart]

Hello Darth,



It is only a topic of wishful thinking at this point.

The numbers don't lie. There is no evidence of herd immunity anytime soon.

Concart pointed out that the current US death rate is 2.5% (8.9 million cases, 231,000 deaths) .

There are 331,000,000 people in the USA.

If the R0 of COVID is between 2 and 3 then it would take between 50% and 67% infection rate in which the infections result in natural immunity.

50% being the minimum number, let's look at that.

50% of 331,000,000 is 156,500,000 people getting infected and achieving natural immunity.

2.5% of 156,500,000 = 3,912,500 deaths.

That's nearly 4 million dead Americans.

Since we only have 230,000 dead Americans, that means we are nowhere close to herd immunity.

There ya go. For now, herd immunity has indeed just been mathematically ruled out.

Well done. Simple math. Herd immunity has not been achieved, not here, not in Sweden.

[PoliTalker]

Hello Concart,

Well done. Simple math. Herd immunity has not been achieved, not here, not in Sweden.

The numbers don't lie. Donald does.

[Micawber]

I'm sorry but I can't help saying again that Darth and the Trumpkins will not care to downgrade the full devastation of this pandemic
the second colonel mustard is no longer potus. In fact, look for them to immediately start pinning it all on President Joe Biden, and in
so doing necessarily commend their considerable expertise in the hyperbolic and truth bending arts towards overstating its harm.

It's how they roll. Only tribe matters, truth means DICK to them. That's why they all must be eliminated.

[bhaktajan]

Did any one mention the
"Hospital Ship Comfort"




Hospital Ship Comfort Ends NYC COVID-19 Mission After ...news.usni.org
Apr 27, 2020 — Hospital Ship Comfort Ends NYC COVID-19 Mission After Treating 182 ... Comfort, which arrived in New York Harbor to much fanfare on March ...

MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM

The 1,000-Bed Comfort Was
Supposed to Aid New York.
It Has 20 Patients.
Published April 2, 2020

“It’s a joke,” said a top hospital executive, whose facilities are packed with coronavirus patients.

Such were the expectations for the Navy hospital ship U.S.N.S. Comfort that when it
chugged into New York Harbor this week, throngs of people, momentarily forgetting
the strictures of social distancing, crammed together along Manhattan’s west side to catch a glimpse.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/n...s-comfort.html

[Grokmaster]

STILL ONLY A SERIOUS ISSUE FOR LESS THAN 1% OF US....

STOP TRYING TO DESTROY OUR NATION OVER IT.

[Darth Omar]

Hello Darth,



It is only a topic of wishful thinking at this point.

The numbers don't lie. There is no evidence of herd immunity anytime soon.

Concart pointed out that the current US death rate is 2.5% (8.9 million cases, 231,000 deaths) .

There are 331,000,000 people in the USA.

If the R0 of COVID is between 2 and 3 then it would take between 50% and 67% infection rate in which the infections result in natural immunity.

50% being the minimum number, let's look at that.

50% of 331,000,000 is 156,500,000 people getting infected and achieving natural immunity.

2.5% of 156,500,000 = 3,912,500 deaths.

That's nearly 4 million dead Americans.

Since we only have 230,000 dead Americans, that means we are nowhere close to herd immunity.

There ya go. For now, herd immunity has indeed just been mathematically ruled out.

No one is questioning math.

Assumptions are another thing. You can make a mathematical equation for just about anything you can imagine, but if the assumptions underlying the variables are junk—then the mathematical conclusions are junk. [see: man made global warming or the Ferguson COVID model]

See the way that works?

The *spurious* assumption at work in this instance is that there is only one kind of immunity. IOW one can only be immune to COVID only if one has been infected and recovered. Problem is, there is a large swath of the population that either doesn’t get COVID or if they do get it it’s a mild case.

There are whole populations that are resistant and they are still trying to learn why. Here is Gupta, I assume she’s ‘an approved’ epidemiologist:

“One thing seems clear: there are many reasons why one population is more protected than another. Theoretical epidemiologist Sunetra Gupta of the University of Oxford thinks that a key one is immunity that was built up prior to this pandemic. “It’s been my hunch for a very long time that there is a lot of cross-protection from severe disease and death conferred by other circulating, related bugs,”

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.the...ation-immunity
_________________

The mistake you and our insufferable friend Connie is making is assuming your assumptions are valid. It’s a common logical error but it’s easily fixed by first *recognizing* there’s an assumption at work, and then questioning it and examining it to see if it’s valid.

Fortunately, that assumption is being examined in this instance.

[moon]

STILL ONLY A SERIOUS ISSUE FOR LESS THAN 1% OF US....

STOP TRYING TO DESTROY OUR NATION OVER IT.

Address the virus, moron.

[Hawkeye10]

Address the virus, moron.

This virus with a death rate less than the common seasonal flu it looks like....YA lets talk about that...What the correct response might look like.

I dare you.

[moon]

This virus with a death rate less than the common seasonal flu it looks like....YA lets talk about that...What the correct response might look like.

I dare you.

Tell it to those suffering and the families and friends of the quarter-million dead Americans- and this mutating virus is just warming up.

Stuff some tissue in your wallet. Make yourself feel secure.

[Hawkeye10]

Tell it to those suffering and the families and friends of the quarter-million dead Americans- and this mutating virus is just warming up.

Stuff some tissue in your wallet. Make yourself feel secure.

"COUGH COUGH COUGH...STFU!".






no

[moon]

Aw, another Trump-hump bound for an ICU. Ta ta.

[Hawkeye10]

Aw, another Trump-hump bound for an ICU. Ta ta.

Look at how you dont even have the decency to provide a quote.

Dont believe for a second that I dont know how rich your suck is.

[moon]

Look at how you dont even have the decency to provide a quote.

Dont believe for a second that I dont know how rich your suck is.

Your delusions are not my concern. You're a Covid-ignoring Trump-hump with nothing to add.

[Hawkeye10]

Your delusions are not my concern. You're a Covid-ignoring Trump-hump with nothing to add.

You did not have the decency to provide a quote.

THE END