Originally Posted by
gfm7175
This is figured by taking the percentage of the total electorate that blacks were from 2016 and applying that against the total ballots that have been cast thus far in 2020 (early voting).
For example, take the North Carolina youth vote numbers from a few days ago... MSNBC, in an effort to act as if Dems are doing SPECTACULARLY thus far, put up a graphic depicting that the youth vote is WAY up from 2016 in Florida, NC, and Michigan. For NC specifically, they showed that the youth vote (18-29yrs old) was 205k this cycle, as opposed to 25k last cycle. Looking damn great for Dems, right?!?!?
Wrong... Voters who were 18-24yrs old only made up 10% of the total electorate in 2016... As of the day that those statistics were displayed by MSNBC, a total of 2,667,944 ballots had been cast. Basic mathematics tells you that 10% of that number is ~ 266,794. ~267k is greater than ~205k, thus having ONLY 205k 18-29yr old votes at such a point in time is actually running BEHIND the numbers of the prior election cycle, especially when accounting for the fact that the 205k number is inflated, as it is also counting people who are of age 25-29, of which the 10% of the electorate figure is not including (it only includes 18-24yrs old)...
Dems are not doing well. I smell a Republican landslide victory in a week...
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