Why do Trumppers pretend Texas...

[Jarod]

I have read that some polls use the same raw data. The results vary because of how they determine who is likely to vote. For example, in 2016 a lot of black voters who had voted for Obama in 2008 and 2012 did not vote in 2016. Some polls expected the lower enthusiasm for Hillary to result in lower turnout among black voters than in 2012 and adjusted their polls to show this while others did not make this adjustment and showed Hillary doing better in those swing states than she actually did.

A d how do you believe that is affecting 2020 polling?

[PostmodernProphet]

` Actually, it means in Pa. Biden could be tied or 10 points ahead. It goes from a very close race to a Trump slaughter.

if you assume you are right instead of wrong........

[PostmodernProphet]

I have read that some polls use the same raw data. The results vary because of how they determine who is likely to vote. For example, in 2016 a lot of black voters who had voted for Obama in 2008 and 2012 did not vote in 2016. Some polls expected the lower enthusiasm for Hillary to result in lower turnout among black voters than in 2012 and adjusted their polls to show this while others did not make this adjustment and showed Hillary doing better in those swing states than she actually did.

correct......polls cannot measure those who decide voting isn't worth their time......

[Flash]

Also by the questions they ask. That is why Gallup gets no respect. They are slanted and are outliers .

Example?

[Flash]

A d how do you believe that is affecting 2020 polling?

It explains some of the differences in the results among the different polls (along with the day the poll was taken, response rate, and numerous other factors. I think the national popular vote polls are less relevant than the swing state polls that will determine the election. As in 2016, some of those states are very close and essentially a toss-up within the margin of error.

[Flash]

correct......polls cannot measure those who decide voting isn't worth their time......

But today pollsters and the data gathering firms can fairly accurately determine who is likely or unlikely to vote and this is factored into the polls.

[Jarod]

Example?

What question are they asking and how is that different from others?

[Jarod]

It explains some of the differences in the results among the different polls (along with the day the poll was taken, response rate, and numerous other factors. I think the national popular vote polls are less relevant than the swing state polls that will determine the election. As in 2016, some of those states are very close and essentially a toss-up within the margin of error.

I agree that state polls are more important at this stage, the only thing the national polls are good for is to check the accuracy of the State polls, you can take the number and figure out what percent of the population that state is and if it all adds up, you wont get a perfect result but you can get an idea around what the national number and the individual state numbers SHOULD be.

The PA numbers for example have an average MOE of about 4.3 in Pennsylvania, but Biden is up an average of between 7-8 points. To me that gives Biden a pretty good chance, its not perfect because you are adding percents which causes error and there could be polling errors, but we are dealing in likelihoods not absolutes.

[Jarod]

Agreed. But how close they are doesn't mean much considering the margin of error could put either candidate ahead or behind.

In the Pennsylvania polls I have seen, the result is outside the MOE.

[Flash]

What question are they asking and how is that different from others?

Yes. What is an example of a Gallup Poll question that is slanted?

The RCP average gives Biden a 7.9% lead and Gallup gives Biden a 12% lead. So, yes, they are an outlier matched only by USC poll.

[PostmodernProphet]

But today pollsters and the data gathering firms can fairly accurately determine who is likely or unlikely to vote and this is factored into the polls.

do you really think so?.....

[Flash]

do you really think so?.....

I know so. They also know what you will purchase and design your web searches based on your preferences.

They use that information to contact those likely to vote for their candidate and urge them to vote.

[Walt]

Why is Pennsylvania, with Biden up 5, considered closer than Texas with Trump up 2.6?

Real Clear Politics averages.

The media is definitely biased towards controversy, so need this to be a close race. They may get their wish... Or maybe not. Either way, if Pennsylvania is a battleground state, it can go either way. If Texas is a battleground state, trump has lost the election.

So the media wants Pennsylvania to be a battleground state.

Last poll put Biden ahead of trump in Texas, but by a margin that makes it not statistically significant. Texas could go either way, but trump will probably win. Pennsylvania is likely Biden, which means it still is possible for trump to turn this around, but it is looking nearly impossible.

trump needs something extreme, and yet not extreme. his current crazy allegations are too crazy for most voters to believe. More sane allegations might be believed, but would not be extreme enough to matter to voters.

The only other road to victory for trump is to disregard the voters. In a sane time, this would not be possible, but trump's team is gaming this one.

[Walt]

Agreed. But how close they are doesn't mean much considering the margin of error could put either candidate ahead or behind.

Texas is within the margin of error. Pennsylvania is outside the margin of error. If the election happened today, no one knows who would win Texas, but Pennsylvania is Biden's.

trump has one week to turn that around.

[Walt]

correct......polls cannot measure those who decide voting isn't worth their time......

Actually, polls are in part to measure not just how someone would vote, but how likely they are too vote. So yes, polls do measure that.

The third issue is what they cannot measure. They can measure how someone will vote, and how likely he or she is to vote. They cannot measure how future situations will change those measurements, because no one knows the future situations.