Question for JPP epidemiologists

[Darth Omar]

By June, usually the peak of its flu season, there were none. In fact, Australia has not reported a positive case to the WHO since July.

In Chile, just 12 cases of flu were detected between April and October. There were nearly 7,000 during the same period in 2019.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/a...illed-flu.html
_____________

How are these numbers even possible?

How is it a size-able country like Australia not reported *one single case* of the seasonal flu in the peak of their flu season?

What’s going on?

[cancel2 2022]

By June, usually the peak of its flu season, there were none. In fact, Australia has not reported a positive case to the WHO since July.

In Chile, just 12 cases of flu were detected between April and October. There were nearly 7,000 during the same period in 2019.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/a...illed-flu.html
_____________

How are these numbers even possible?

How is it a size-able country like Australia not reported *one single case* of the seasonal flu in the peak of their flu season?

What’s going on?

Indeed, I posted the same article!

[ThatOwlWoman]

Daily Mail = National Enquirer. lol

There could be any number of reasons. 1. This is fake news (it is). 2. The same measures being used to curb COVID are successfully curbing the spread of influenza. 3. Your confirmation bias got the best of you again.

"It is important to note that due to the COVID-19 epidemic in Australia, data reported from the various influenza surveillance systems may not represent an accurate reflection of influenza activity. Results should be interpreted with caution, especially where comparisons are made to previous influenza seasons. Interpretation of 2020 influenza activity data should take into account, but are not limited to, the impact of social distancing measures, likely changes in health seeking behaviour of the community including access to alternative streams of acute respiratory infection specific health services, and focussed testing for COVID-19 response activities. Current COVID-19 related public health measures and the community’s adherence to public health messages are also likely having an effect on transmission of acute respiratory infections, including influenza.

"Activity – Following a high start to the 2020 interseasonal period, currently, influenza and influenza-like illness (ILI) activity are lower than average across all systems for this time of year. At the national level, notifications of laboratory-confirmed influenza have substantially decreased since mid-March and remain low.

"Impact – Given low case numbers of laboratory-confirmed notifications for influenza, it is likely that there is minimal impact on society due to influenza circulation in the 2020 season.

"Severity – There is no indication of the potential severity of the 2020 season at this time. In the year to date, of the 21,196 notifications of laboratory confirmed influenza, 36 (0.17%) laboratory-confirmed influenza-associated deaths have been notified to the

"National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System (NNDSS).

"Virology – In the year to date, the majority of nationally reported laboratory-confirmed influenza cases were influenza A (87.1%).

"Vaccine match and effectiveness – Given low case numbers of influenza in 2020, it is currently difficult to assess vaccine match and effectiveness."

https://www1.health.gov.au/internet/...lu-flucurr.htm

[dukkha]

lol.. more money for reporting COVID -just like deaths. "He died of COVID" ( the motorcycle crash was incidental)

[Darth Omar]

Daily Mail = National Enquirer. lol

There could be any number of reasons. 1. This is fake news (it is). 2. The same measures being used to curb COVID are successfully curbing the spread of influenza. 3. Your confirmation bias got the best of you again.

"It is important to note that due to the COVID-19 epidemic in Australia, data reported from the various influenza surveillance systems may not represent an accurate reflection of influenza activity. Results should be interpreted with caution, especially where comparisons are made to previous influenza seasons. Interpretation of 2020 influenza activity data should take into account, but are not limited to, the impact of social distancing measures, likely changes in health seeking behaviour of the community including access to alternative streams of acute respiratory infection specific health services, and focussed testing for COVID-19 response activities. Current COVID-19 related public health measures and the community’s adherence to public health messages are also likely having an effect on transmission of acute respiratory infections, including influenza.

"Activity – Following a high start to the 2020 interseasonal period, currently, influenza and influenza-like illness (ILI) activity are lower than average across all systems for this time of year. At the national level, notifications of laboratory-confirmed influenza have substantially decreased since mid-March and remain low.

"Impact – Given low case numbers of laboratory-confirmed notifications for influenza, it is likely that there is minimal impact on society due to influenza circulation in the 2020 season.

"Severity – There is no indication of the potential severity of the 2020 season at this time. In the year to date, of the 21,196 notifications of laboratory confirmed influenza, 36 (0.17%) laboratory-confirmed influenza-associated deaths have been notified to the

"National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System (NNDSS).

"Virology – In the year to date, the majority of nationally reported laboratory-confirmed influenza cases were influenza A (87.1%).

"Vaccine match and effectiveness – Given low case numbers of influenza in 2020, it is currently difficult to assess vaccine match and effectiveness."

https://www1.health.gov.au/internet/...lu-flucurr.htm

Chile went from 7,000 flu deaths in the winter season last year down to 12[!] this year.

I’m sorry, your explanation doesn’t explain that.

[PostmodernProphet]

I’m sorry, your explanation doesn’t explain that.

actually, it did......she was just a little confused about which news was fake......

[ThatOwlWoman]

Chile went from 7,000 flu deaths in the winter season last year down to 12[!] this year.

I’m sorry, your explanation doesn’t explain that.

I didn't expect that factual information from the country you originally brought up -- Australia -- would make a bit of difference, and I was right. So you moved the goalposts to Chile. Let's give you some more information to disregard. lol

"Influenza data reported to the World Health Organization’s (WHO’s) FluNet platform from three Southern Hemisphere countries that serve as robust sentinel sites for influenza from Oceania (Australia), South America (Chile), and Southern Africa (South Africa) showed very low influenza activity during June–August 2020, the months that constitute the typical Southern Hemisphere influenza season. In countries or jurisdictions where extensive community mitigation measures are maintained (e.g., face masks, social distancing, school closures, and teleworking), those locations might have little influenza circulation during the upcoming 2020–21 Northern Hemisphere influenza season. The use of community mitigation measures for the COVID-19 pandemic, plus influenza vaccination, are likely to be effective in reducing the incidence and impact of influenza, and some of these mitigation measures could have a role in preventing influenza in future seasons."

Source: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6937a6.htm

So it's nothing more sinister than the same measures that we are taking as a species to prevent spread of COVID is also reducing the spread of typical influenza. We've taught our patients for years that good hand-washing techniques, avoiding crowded venues with perceptibly sick people, vaccines, and good nutrition are very helpful to keep you healthy.

[Minister of Truth]

The first country to truly have levelled out is likely Peru. Has anyone followed their insane COVID numbers?

[ThatOwlWoman]

The first country to truly have levelled out is likely Peru. Has anyone followed their insane COVID numbers?

Current stats, and the graphs are at the link. They have definitely "turned the corner."



https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/peru/

[Darth Omar]

I didn't expect that factual information from the country you originally brought up -- Australia -- would make a bit of difference, and I was right. So you moved the goalposts to Chile. Let's give you some more information to disregard.

"Influenza data reported to the World Health Organization’s (WHO’s) FluNet platform from three Southern Hemisphere countries that serve as robust sentinel sites for influenza from Oceania (Australia), South America (Chile), and Southern Africa (South Africa) showed very low influenza activity during June–August 2020, the months that constitute the typical Southern Hemisphere influenza season. In countries or jurisdictions where extensive community mitigation measures are maintained (e.g., face masks, social distancing, school closures, and teleworking), those locations might have little influenza circulation during the upcoming 2020–21 Northern Hemisphere influenza season. The use of community mitigation measures for the COVID-19 pandemic, plus influenza vaccination, are likely to be effective in reducing the incidence and impact of influenza, and some of these mitigation measures could have a role in preventing influenza in future seasons."

Source: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6937a6.htm

So it's nothing more sinister than the same measures that we are taking as a species to prevent spread of COVID is also reducing the spread of typical influenza. We've taught our patients for years that good hand-washing techniques, avoiding crowded venues with perceptibly sick people, vaccines, and good nutrition are very helpful to keep you healthy.

Australia, Chile, take your pick.

It just isn’t plausible that COVID mitigation measures can explain that degree of discrepancy in numbers. I can see knocking the top off of the numbers—but making them *disappear entirely*, like in Australia, is like having faith in miracles.

There has to be another explanation.

[Darth Omar]

The first country to truly have levelled out is likely Peru. Has anyone followed their insane COVID numbers?

The problem with following international COVID numbers is we don’t know how [Peru] does their testing. Do they limit their PCR cycles to 20-25? How aggressively do they track deaths?

It can easily become a case of apples and oranges.

[ThatOwlWoman]

Australia, Chile, take your pick.

It just isn’t plausible that COVID mitigation measures can explain that degree of discrepancy in numbers. I can see knocking the top off of the numbers—but making them *disappear entirely*, like in Australia, is like having faith in miracles.

There has to be another explanation.

Well, keep digging. I'm sure with enough QAnon help, you can uncover a sinister plot to rid the world of unpleasant influenza statistics.

[Darth Omar]

Well, keep digging. I'm sure with enough QAnon help, you can uncover a sinister plot to rid the world of unpleasant influenza statistics.

I’m not suggesting anything.

A *mitigation* scheme is exactly that. It doesn’t make things like viruses disappear. It mitigates them.

[Hawkeye10]

By June, usually the peak of its flu season, there were none. In fact, Australia has not reported a positive case to the WHO since July.

In Chile, just 12 cases of flu were detected between April and October. There were nearly 7,000 during the same period in 2019.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/a...illed-flu.html
_____________

How are these numbers even possible?

How is it a size-able country like Australia not reported *one single case* of the seasonal flu in the peak of their flu season?

What’s going on?

Because what we are doing because of COVID prevents flu transmission. Take a look at the USA right now....there is almost no flu here....this fear mongering over a "Twindemic" and "This is the most important year ever to get your flu shot!" is pure BullShit aimed at the ignorant.

The lack of travel is a big part of this.

[Darth Omar]

Because what we are doing because of COVID prevents flu transmission. Take a look at the USA right now....there is almost no flu here....this fear mongering over a "Twindemic" and "This is the most important year ever to get your flu shot!" is pure BullShit aimed at the ignorant.

The lack of travel is a big part of this.

Nope.

Kids are in school and kids are notorious for spreading the seasonal flu.