Reply With QuoteEarl (10-20-2020), Stretch (10-20-2020), Truth Detector (10-20-2020)
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RCP trend
ALL down for Biden into the 2nd full week now..
FL and NC are now tied
IA tied
PA has Biden down below 4% lead
OH for Trump
WI. still looks tricky for Trump
AZ - Biden's lead is around 3% and dropping - and Trump just campaigned all over that state
MI still looks tough to get unles there are "hidden voters"
MN - all about rural turnout, but Biden still leads
NV where Trump just campaigned?? .......naw
Earl (10-20-2020), Stretch (10-20-2020), Truth Detector (10-20-2020)
Senior Member
I feel VERY confident that Trump will win most of these States, if not every single one of these States.Originally Posted by anatta
Trump will win with at least 300 electoral college votes. (likely more around 320ish, give or take a few)
https://www.270towin.com/map-images/EBKPm
Earl (10-20-2020), Truth Detector (10-20-2020)
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it's now all about turnout. The media is talking still "double digit lead" in an attempt to suppress
It's not going to work - Trump supporters are coming out hell or high water
gfm7175 (10-20-2020), Truth Detector (10-20-2020)
Insane Level of Addiction
JPP Contributor
You are already calling it a trend, but your numbers are not based on a broad spectrum of polls, you are cherry picking.
I do agree some new polls (not the most respected ones yet) are showing the possibility of movement toward Trump*, I would require more before I would call it a trend.
We will see by Friday if it's a trend or not.
4,487
18 U.S. Code § 2071 - Concealment, removal, or mutilation generally
44 U.S.C. 2202 - The United States shall reserve and retain complete ownership, possession, and control of Presidential records; and such records shall be administered in accordance with the provisions of this chapter.
LOCK HIM UP!
CharacterAssassin (10-21-2020), Trump's Brain (10-20-2020)
Senior Member
Political polls are complete garbage, as explained within the 'debunked' link in my signature...
Any poll claiming that Biden is leading by 6-10 points in Wisconsin is just flat out wrong. I live in the State. I travel around a lot of the State. I talk to people. Biden is NOT leading anywhere NEAR 6-10 points... Wisconsin will be fairly close I would bet, but I do think that Trump will barely carry it...
I am finding that the Trafalgar polls are much closer to what I believe will actually happen in each State come November... I still think that they are under-representing conservatives by a few points, but they are at least right within the ballpark, while damn near every other polling that I have seen is a complete fraud and is vastly over-representing Dems...
Trump has A LOT of positive enthusiasm, and "swing-State" registration numbers are largely looking good for him, as are their early voting numbers. Then there's also a SHIT TON of people like me who are purposely waiting until voting day and voting in person.
Biden's only enthusiasm is hate, and I believe that love (for Trump) will once again trump hate (for Trump).
Truth Detector (10-20-2020)
Insane Level of Addiction
JPP Contributor
You are funny, Trafalgar is the most political of the polls.
4,487
18 U.S. Code § 2071 - Concealment, removal, or mutilation generally
44 U.S.C. 2202 - The United States shall reserve and retain complete ownership, possession, and control of Presidential records; and such records shall be administered in accordance with the provisions of this chapter.
LOCK HIM UP!
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what?
I'm using the RCP AVERAGE of polls. the trends are clear -
I haven't seen a Biden increase in RCP -well into the 2nd week I've been watching daily
Truth Detector (10-20-2020)
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one of the most accurate in 2016
gfm7175 (10-20-2020), Truth Detector (10-20-2020)
Senior Member
... and also the most accurate to what I believe will happen, at least this time around...
Truth Detector (10-20-2020)
Senior Member
He just doesn't like polls that aren't showing what he wants to see.
I, on the other hand, don't give a shizzit about polling. I dismiss Trafalgar polls in the same way that I dismiss any other poll, but I do find Trafalgar's polling to be the closest to what I believe will happen in a few weeks...
Truth Detector (10-20-2020)
Senior Member
... and this cycle as well, I think... We'll see, though.
Truth Detector (10-20-2020)
Insane Level of Addiction
JPP Contributor
RCP has Biden up one in Florida.
RCP has Biden up two in North Carolina
Close but not even.
4,487
18 U.S. Code § 2071 - Concealment, removal, or mutilation generally
44 U.S.C. 2202 - The United States shall reserve and retain complete ownership, possession, and control of Presidential records; and such records shall be administered in accordance with the provisions of this chapter.
LOCK HIM UP!
Insane Level of Addiction
JPP Contributor
And 2018?
4,487
18 U.S. Code § 2071 - Concealment, removal, or mutilation generally
44 U.S.C. 2202 - The United States shall reserve and retain complete ownership, possession, and control of Presidential records; and such records shall be administered in accordance with the provisions of this chapter.
LOCK HIM UP!
Verified User
I'm floored by this.
This election shouldn't be close. Set the bar higher, America.
Micawber (10-20-2020)
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no idea,
but the 2020 election is the same dynamics of 2016. Both had Trump on the POTUS ballot
Dems were enthusiastic in 2018 - Repubs not so much.
Repubs are actually more "enthusiastic" this time - that translates to turnout?
Truth Detector (10-20-2020)
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