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Thread: ILA's Official 2020 Presidential Prediction

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    Quote Originally Posted by Damocles View Post
    If you are going to post in APP, stay on topic.
    APP Edit...
    Last edited by Damocles; 10-14-2020 at 08:51 AM. Reason: Also not on topic.
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    44 U.S.C. 2202 - The United States shall reserve and retain complete ownership, possession, and control of Presidential records; and such records shall be administered in accordance with the provisions of this chapter.


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    Quote Originally Posted by Teflon Don View Post
    Here resides my official 2020 Presidential Prediction. Now of course, this prediction is made with all available information known today and can change as events change.

    But, as I sit here today, President Trump will be re-elected President of the United States

    His Electoral College victory will be 356-182

    He will win 37 states compared to the 30 he won in 2016.

    He will win all but the following states (easier to list the states he won't win): CA, WA, OR, IL, NY, NJ, VT, DE, MD, RI, CT, MA, HI

    Yes, I have looked at all of the "national" polls and I have determined that they are all garbage.

    1) They all over sample democrats by 8-10 points
    2) Still doing registered voter models

    I am instead looking at fundamentals on the ground

    1) Massive displays of Trump support all over the country including Trump rally's in Beverly freaking Hills CA
    2) Democrats all over the country have gone insane from lockdowns to allowing BLMTIFA to run amok
    3) Trump boat rallies spontaneously occurring
    4) Trump is still packing them in at any rally he does
    5) Biden can't draw a few hundred people at any campaign event. He can't even draw them online
    6) America sees that Biden is in severe cognitive decline
    7) America will vote against the democrat media industrial complex
    8) Even in polls that are poorly done, Trump consistently gets >20% of approval from black voters. I believe that is going to translate into at least 15% of the black vote
    9) Biden is underperforming with hispanics (particularly in Florida) and Trump is over performing with hispanics. Trump is going to do better with hispanics than he did in 2016
    10) Biden is playing defense right now. Making trips to PA, Las Vegas and Miami this late in the campaign is not offensive campaigning. It is playing defense. Campaigns up by double digits are not playing defense
    11) 56% of Americans think they are better off today than they did four years ago
    12) When asked who they thought would win the race, 56% said Trump


    As I said, all of this can change in the blink of an eye and if I think it warrants a change, I will make that change accordingly. One area of weakness that has been pretty consistent since the Wu Flu has been the elderly vote.

    I also believe there is a high likely hood of Republicans keeping the Senate and even taking back the House of Representatives, but not as confident on the latter yet. I haven't really looked at individual races. There are two races I am watching this year

    1) James Senate race in Michigan. I think he can flip it. I have sent him money
    2) Kim Klacik house race in Maryland. Keep an eye on her. Not sure if she can flip that race, but she is an up and coming star in the Republican Party. If she does win that race this year then look out. Republicans are going to run the table.
    This and most other posts on this thread are based on anecdotal evidence. Is that on topic enough. If you don't understand what anecdotal is, you will have to look it up because if I define it here they will censor you post. They don't what you to understand it.
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    18 U.S. Code § 2071 - Concealment, removal, or mutilation generally
    44 U.S.C. 2202 - The United States shall reserve and retain complete ownership, possession, and control of Presidential records; and such records shall be administered in accordance with the provisions of this chapter.


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    Quote Originally Posted by Jarod View Post
    APP Edit
    Then post elsewhere where staying on point doesn't matter.
    Last edited by Damocles; 10-14-2020 at 08:51 AM.
    Excellence is an art won by training and habituation. We do not act rightly because we have virtue or excellence, but rather we have those because we have acted rightly. We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act but a habit.
    - -- Aristotle

    Believe nothing on the faith of traditions, even though they have been held in honor for many generations and in diverse places. Do not believe a thing because many people speak of it. Do not believe on the faith of the sages of the past. Do not believe what you yourself have imagined, persuading yourself that a God inspires you. Believe nothing on the sole authority of your masters and priests. After examination, believe what you yourself have tested and found to be reasonable, and conform your conduct thereto.
    - -- The Buddha

    It is the mark of an educated mind to be able to entertain a thought without accepting it.
    - -- Aristotle

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    Quote Originally Posted by Damocles View Post
    Then post elsewhere where staying on point doesn't matter.
    APP Edit...
    Last edited by Damocles; 10-14-2020 at 08:52 AM. Reason: Not on topic.
    4,487

    18 U.S. Code § 2071 - Concealment, removal, or mutilation generally
    44 U.S.C. 2202 - The United States shall reserve and retain complete ownership, possession, and control of Presidential records; and such records shall be administered in accordance with the provisions of this chapter.


    LOCK HIM UP!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Damocles View Post
    Then post elsewhere where staying on point doesn't matter.
    Could you just retro Jarod so this doesn’t derail with a back and forth between you and him?

    This was a good faith effort at deep level analysis of this election

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    I am becoming more and more confident of a Trump victory

    One of the areas the left will be disappointed in is the YUTE vote. They just aren’t going to turn out for Sleepy Joe. They are notoriously the least reliable voting bloc and are over represented in all of the polling

    The YUTES are just not enthralled with Sleepy Joe

    Also I have watched Trumps recent rallies. He shows no ill effects from Wu Flu and is lighting it up. Biden on the other hand is trying to keep a busier schedule but it is definitely taking a toll. These are beyond usual gaffes that he is making.

    Anyone who can’t see he is in mental decline is not paying attention

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    Quote Originally Posted by Teflon Don View Post
    I am becoming more and more confident of a Trump victory

    One of the areas the left will be disappointed in is the YUTE vote. They just aren’t going to turn out for Sleepy Joe. They are notoriously the least reliable voting bloc and are over represented in all of the polling

    The YUTES are just not enthralled with Sleepy Joe

    Also I have watched Trumps recent rallies. He shows no ill effects from Wu Flu and is lighting it up. Biden on the other hand is trying to keep a busier schedule but it is definitely taking a toll. These are beyond usual gaffes that he is making.

    Anyone who can’t see he is in mental decline is not paying attention

    Indeed. Polls seem to be the only things that DEMOCRATS can cling to.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Legion View Post



    Not to disagree with your enthusiasm point, but, I do think that COVID has been able to amplify participation in both leftist riots and conservative rallies by artificially creating a higher volume of available participants.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Chaz View Post
    Not to disagree with your enthusiasm point, but, I do think that COVID has been able to amplify participation in both leftist riots and conservative rallies by artificially creating a higher volume of available participants.
    Perhaps. Is there any evidence to support your theory?

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    I really can't wait for November 3rd to get here.

    I think the momentum is turning in the President's favor. It really does seem like 2016 all over again. The press is pushing bogus polls with wild leads for the democrat. They are pushing stories about how "republicans are distancing themselves from Trump".

    I have watched the Trump rallies and there are numerous Republicans right there with him. I don't see anyone "distancing" themselves from him. What I don't see is Obama out on the stump for his former VP. I don't see Hillary out campaigning for Biden. I don't see Bill Clinton out campaigning for Biden.

    This Burisma story is about to crack wide open. Maybe the FBI and Bill Barr will try to deep six the truth from coming out, but it will come out.

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    As of today, I see zero reason to change my prediction.

    Trump will win the Electoral College

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    Here is my updated map

    I actually think Trump is going to flip Minnesota and Nevada. I thought he might have a shot at New Hampshire but I am taking that off of the table.

    Two dark horse flips for Trump are Virginia and New Mexico. It would not surprise me to see Virginia flip to Trump. One thing that doesn't get talked about much is the gun control laws they pushed as soon as Northam got elected. That pissed off lots of Virginians. I think this might be a message sent to them. So far everything I am seeing is that early voting for democrats is abysmal



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