cancel2 2022 (10-11-2020)
Here resides my official 2020 Presidential Prediction. Now of course, this prediction is made with all available information known today and can change as events change.
But, as I sit here today, President Trump will be re-elected President of the United States
His Electoral College victory will be 356-182
He will win 37 states compared to the 30 he won in 2016.
He will win all but the following states (easier to list the states he won't win): CA, WA, OR, IL, NY, NJ, VT, DE, MD, RI, CT, MA, HI
Yes, I have looked at all of the "national" polls and I have determined that they are all garbage.
1) They all over sample democrats by 8-10 points
2) Still doing registered voter models
I am instead looking at fundamentals on the ground
1) Massive displays of Trump support all over the country including Trump rally's in Beverly freaking Hills CA
2) Democrats all over the country have gone insane from lockdowns to allowing BLMTIFA to run amok
3) Trump boat rallies spontaneously occurring
4) Trump is still packing them in at any rally he does
5) Biden can't draw a few hundred people at any campaign event. He can't even draw them online
6) America sees that Biden is in severe cognitive decline
7) America will vote against the democrat media industrial complex
8) Even in polls that are poorly done, Trump consistently gets >20% of approval from black voters. I believe that is going to translate into at least 15% of the black vote
9) Biden is underperforming with hispanics (particularly in Florida) and Trump is over performing with hispanics. Trump is going to do better with hispanics than he did in 2016
10) Biden is playing defense right now. Making trips to PA, Las Vegas and Miami this late in the campaign is not offensive campaigning. It is playing defense. Campaigns up by double digits are not playing defense
11) 56% of Americans think they are better off today than they did four years ago
12) When asked who they thought would win the race, 56% said Trump
As I said, all of this can change in the blink of an eye and if I think it warrants a change, I will make that change accordingly. One area of weakness that has been pretty consistent since the Wu Flu has been the elderly vote.
I also believe there is a high likely hood of Republicans keeping the Senate and even taking back the House of Representatives, but not as confident on the latter yet. I haven't really looked at individual races. There are two races I am watching this year
1) James Senate race in Michigan. I think he can flip it. I have sent him money
2) Kim Klacik house race in Maryland. Keep an eye on her. Not sure if she can flip that race, but she is an up and coming star in the Republican Party. If she does win that race this year then look out. Republicans are going to run the table.
Last edited by canceled.2021.2; 10-11-2020 at 09:37 AM.
cancel2 2022 (10-11-2020)
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Can't help feeling, judging from the hubris displayed by Progs on here, that they are in for a nasty shock.
Shocked reporter says NO one showed in support of Biden and Harris at their event in Arizona.
Saudade (10-13-2020)
Joe Biden should easily win the presidency but Trump being a sore loser and extremely immature, insecure man will contest for a while. The man is a mental child. I think that is part of his appeal as he appeals to base instincts, tribal and cult sentiments. Conflict and controversy over more complicated mature emotions. The worst thing is if his latest religious tool gets into the SCOTUS, the working class and poor will suffer as they always do under republican rule. For our family it doesn't matter either way, but for many Americans and our planet and country if Trump wins it will matter and not in a positive way. That is too obvious.
'Lest We Forget The Horrors: A Catalog Of Trump’S Worst Cruelties, Collusions, Corruptions, And Crimes'
https://www.mcsweeneys.net/articles/...rocities-1-923
"What is patriotism? Let us begin with what patriotism is not. It is not patriotic to dodge the draft and to mock war heroes and their families. It is not patriotic to discriminate against active-duty members of the armed forces in one's companies, or to campaign to keep disabled veterans away from one's property. It is not patriotic to compare one's search for sexual partners in New York with the military service in Vietnam that one has dodged. It is not patriotic to avoid paying taxes, especially when American working families do pay. It is not patriotic to ask those working, taxpaying American families to finance one's own presidential campaign, and then to spend their contributions in one's own companies. It is not patriotic to admire foreign dictators. It is not patriotic to cultivate a relationship with Muammar Gaddafi; or to say that Bashar al-Assad and Vladimir Putin are superior leaders. It is not patriotic to call upon Russia to intervene in an American presidential election. It is not patriotic to cite Russian propaganda at rallies." Timothy Snyder 'On Tyranny'
Wanna make America great, buy American owned, made in the USA, we do. AF Veteran, INFJ-A, I am not PC.
"I have never made but one prayer to God, a very short one: 'O Lord make my enemies ridiculous.' And God granted it." Voltaire
Matt Dillon (10-13-2020)
ThatOwlWoman (10-13-2020)
APP Edit.
Last edited by Damocles; 10-13-2020 at 01:15 PM. Reason: App Edit. APP rule 6... stay on topic.
4,487
18 U.S. Code § 2071 - Concealment, removal, or mutilation generally
44 U.S.C. 2202 - The United States shall reserve and retain complete ownership, possession, and control of Presidential records; and such records shall be administered in accordance with the provisions of this chapter.
LOCK HIM UP!
Excellence is an art won by training and habituation. We do not act rightly because we have virtue or excellence, but rather we have those because we have acted rightly. We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act but a habit.
- -- Aristotle
Believe nothing on the faith of traditions, even though they have been held in honor for many generations and in diverse places. Do not believe a thing because many people speak of it. Do not believe on the faith of the sages of the past. Do not believe what you yourself have imagined, persuading yourself that a God inspires you. Believe nothing on the sole authority of your masters and priests. After examination, believe what you yourself have tested and found to be reasonable, and conform your conduct thereto.
- -- The Buddha
It is the mark of an educated mind to be able to entertain a thought without accepting it.
- -- Aristotle
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