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Thread: Trump's path to 270 Electoral Votes

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    Quote Originally Posted by Beijing Buyden View Post
    This is a very plausible path to 270 for President Trump. He has a much more favorable Electoral College map than Buyden. It all comes down to Pennsylvania. Ohio is out of reach for Buyden. Florida is getting out of reach. If Trump wins Pennsylvania, then Buyden can't win the Presidency. Period. Last nights admission that he is going to end fossil fuels is not going to do Buyden any favors in Pennsylvania. His campaign was immediately trying to do damage control because they knew it was a huge mistake. Even the moderator was perplexed and asked "why would you do that?"

    I think this is actually a very conservative map right now for Trump. He could easily have the same Electoral College victory he had in 2016 or even greater. But, this is my conservative view as it stands today. It can and will probably change.


    This, I think is his best shot, but he does not need both Maine and New Hampshire.
    4,487

    18 U.S. Code § 2071 - Concealment, removal, or mutilation generally
    44 U.S.C. 2202 - The United States shall reserve and retain complete ownership, possession, and control of Presidential records; and such records shall be administered in accordance with the provisions of this chapter.


    LOCK HIM UP!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jarod View Post
    I did not say if I thought Trump would win. Now what do you mean by "in play"?

    Is it possible Trump could win, yes, in all 50 states its possible. Is it reasonably likely, no.
    In play means is it possible he could win those states.

    Don't be silly. California, Vermont and Oregon are not in play. Pennsylvania is in play.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jarod View Post
    Do you have any data suggesting his fracking comments hurt him?
    what kind of data? polling data? I already told you I don't really trust the polling data.

    The data I would provide is the thousands of jobs fracking has created in NE Pennsylvania not to mention the money that has changed peoples lives where they are drilling. But hey, if you think someone who is getting anywhere from $10-50,000 a month in royalties from fracking on their land is going to be OK with Beijing Buyden shutting that down then so be it.

    I know that this is the same game you played in 2016. You are clinging to these polls as if it isn't in a poll then it doesn't count. You think crowd sizes or spontaneous car parades don't matter. Only the polls matter.

    Well next Tuesday we get to find out who is right

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    Quote Originally Posted by Beijing Buyden View Post
    In play means is it possible he could win those states.

    Don't be silly. California, Vermont and Oregon are not in play. Pennsylvania is in play.
    It's always possible. I reject your concept of "in play."

    I think Texas is more "in play" (possible) than Pennsylvania.
    4,487

    18 U.S. Code § 2071 - Concealment, removal, or mutilation generally
    44 U.S.C. 2202 - The United States shall reserve and retain complete ownership, possession, and control of Presidential records; and such records shall be administered in accordance with the provisions of this chapter.


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    Quote Originally Posted by Beijing Buyden View Post
    what kind of data? polling data? I already told you I don't really trust the polling data.

    The data I would provide is the thousands of jobs fracking has created in NE Pennsylvania not to mention the money that has changed peoples lives where they are drilling. But hey, if you think someone who is getting anywhere from $10-50,000 a month in royalties from fracking on their land is going to be OK with Beijing Buyden shutting that down then so be it.

    I know that this is the same game you played in 2016. You are clinging to these polls as if it isn't in a poll then it doesn't count. You think crowd sizes or spontaneous car parades don't matter. Only the polls matter.

    Well next Tuesday we get to find out who is right
    I do not care what type of data, just data. You would have to show a correlation between the number of Fracking jobs to the number of Biden votes lost to make the data about the number of fracking jobs related to Biden votes, I don't think there is any data on that.
    4,487

    18 U.S. Code § 2071 - Concealment, removal, or mutilation generally
    44 U.S.C. 2202 - The United States shall reserve and retain complete ownership, possession, and control of Presidential records; and such records shall be administered in accordance with the provisions of this chapter.


    LOCK HIM UP!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jarod View Post
    It's always possible. I reject your concept of "in play."

    I think Texas is more "in play" (possible) than Pennsylvania.
    so you think Buyden has a shot of winning Texas?

    I think Trump has a 70% chance of winning PA. Do you think the same about Texas and Buyden?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Beijing Buyden View Post
    so you think Buyden has a shot of winning Texas?

    I think Trump has a 70% chance of winning PA. Do you think the same about Texas and Buyden?
    I don’t think Trump has a 70% chance of winning PA. Maybe 15%. I think Biden has about a 35% chance at Texas.
    4,487

    18 U.S. Code § 2071 - Concealment, removal, or mutilation generally
    44 U.S.C. 2202 - The United States shall reserve and retain complete ownership, possession, and control of Presidential records; and such records shall be administered in accordance with the provisions of this chapter.


    LOCK HIM UP!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jarod View Post
    I do not care what type of data, just data. You would have to show a correlation between the number of Fracking jobs to the number of Biden votes lost to make the data about the number of fracking jobs related to Biden votes, I don't think there is any data on that.
    so lets review

    you are asking for data that you claim doesn't exist?

    OK

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    Quote Originally Posted by Beijing Buyden View Post
    so lets review

    you are asking for data that you claim doesn't exist?

    OK
    No, reread . I asked for data, then you espoused a theory and I said there is no data for that specific theory.
    4,487

    18 U.S. Code § 2071 - Concealment, removal, or mutilation generally
    44 U.S.C. 2202 - The United States shall reserve and retain complete ownership, possession, and control of Presidential records; and such records shall be administered in accordance with the provisions of this chapter.


    LOCK HIM UP!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jarod View Post
    No, reread . I asked for data, then you espoused a theory and I said there is no data for that specific theory.
    yeah I have a theory. Not everything in politics is based on "data" and it is a silly game to pretend otherwise

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    Quote Originally Posted by Beijing Buyden View Post
    yeah I have a theory. Not everything in politics is based on "data" and it is a silly game to pretend otherwise
    It’s fun to talk about theories, and that’s perfectly OK. Before I will give any theory much credence it should have some data to back it up. That’s one of my biggest problems with Republicans these days, they have a lot of theories but none of it is backed up with data, just feelings.
    4,487

    18 U.S. Code § 2071 - Concealment, removal, or mutilation generally
    44 U.S.C. 2202 - The United States shall reserve and retain complete ownership, possession, and control of Presidential records; and such records shall be administered in accordance with the provisions of this chapter.


    LOCK HIM UP!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jarod View Post
    It’s fun to talk about theories, and that’s perfectly OK. Before I will give any theory much credence it should have some data to back it up. That’s one of my biggest problems with Republicans these days, they have a lot of theories but none of it is backed up with data, just feelings.
    here is some data for you

    Nobody has won the Presidency when they have lost Ohio and Florida in decades

    Nobody who has served in the Senate as long as Buyden has ever won the Presidency

    Trump is 6 points higher in approval in Rasmussen than Obama was in 2012

    56% of Americans think they are better off today than they were four years ago according to Gallup

    When asked who they think will win the election, people overwhelmingly say Trump. One poll had it 56% to 40%. That question has been accurate 78% of the time going back decades

    There is some data for you to wrestle with

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    I am also basing my analysis on voter registration trends along with polling from pollsters who were accurate in 2016

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    Quote Originally Posted by Beijing Buyden View Post
    here is some data for you

    Nobody has won the Presidency when they have lost Ohio and Florida in decades

    Nobody who has served in the Senate as long as Buyden has ever won the Presidency

    Trump is 6 points higher in approval in Rasmussen than Obama was in 2012

    56% of Americans think they are better off today than they were four years ago according to Gallup

    When asked who they think will win the election, people overwhelmingly say Trump. One poll had it 56% to 40%. That question has been accurate 78% of the time going back decades

    There is some data for you to wrestle with
    You can always play the "Nobody has ever won..." game, it happens every year for both candidates. You clearly do not understand what is correlated data vs anecdotal data.

    The 56% of Americans saying they are better off is the only one I can see that is relevant. Remember that information comes from the same polls you do not believe in. It appears, a larger percent of those saying they are better off are also saying they are voting or did vote for Biden.

    You see, not everyone is a selfish money obsessed jerk. Many of us vote based on something other than our own personal financial gain.

    Some of those who say they are better off, do not necessarily give Trump credit. But I do see some correlation to that data and the idea that Trump has support and why. I find it interesting that you consider that polling data accurate, but other polling data inaccurate, it appears you have the mental defect of only giving creditability to data that supports you desire and feelings.
    4,487

    18 U.S. Code § 2071 - Concealment, removal, or mutilation generally
    44 U.S.C. 2202 - The United States shall reserve and retain complete ownership, possession, and control of Presidential records; and such records shall be administered in accordance with the provisions of this chapter.


    LOCK HIM UP!

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    I find it interesting how desperately Trumppers are to have everyone think they are winning.

    I think the best position for any candidate is for their voters to think its dead even and their vote is really likely to make the difference. If you are lying, the lie would be about how close it is, not how far ahead you are.
    4,487

    18 U.S. Code § 2071 - Concealment, removal, or mutilation generally
    44 U.S.C. 2202 - The United States shall reserve and retain complete ownership, possession, and control of Presidential records; and such records shall be administered in accordance with the provisions of this chapter.


    LOCK HIM UP!

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