Trump's path to 270 Electoral Votes

[canceled.2021.2]

It should be noted that this is not a prediction. This is just a deep level analysis based on what we know today based on state polling, as well as how the candidates are conducting their campaign.

The country has been flooded with some junk polling lately showing Biden with double digit national lead over Trump. Of course Real Clear Politics will be quick to throw these junk polls into their "average" to skew the "average" in favor of Biden.

While I don't completely discount these polls and I will admit seeing Rasmussen with a double digit lead did get my attention, I have to remind myself AND you that the Presidential election is played for Electoral College votes and not the "national vote" despite what the marxists tell you.

So with that in mind does Trump have a path to 270 Electoral College Votes? Actually he has a very strong path.

I have broken the analysis into four groups. Group 1 are states with very little chance of voting for Biden. Group 2 are states marxists make some noise about, but are probably still going to be red. Group 3 are the same battleground states that have been fought over since 2000 and finally Group 4 are today's haul of battle ground states.

So, let's begin


Group 1 = 126 EV
These states should be a lock for Trump.

Montana - 3, Alaska - 3, Idaho - 4, Wyoming - 3, N. Dakota - 3, S. Dakota - 3, Nebraska - 5, Utah - 6, Kansas - 6, Oklahoma - 7, Missouri - 10, Arkansas - 6, Louisiana - 8, Mississippi - 6, Alabama - 9, Tennessee - 11, Kentucky - 8, S. Carolina - 9, Indiana - 11, W. Virginia - 5

Group 2 = 60 EV
This group are states that you heard noises about democrats trying to flip and who knows, maybe someday they will, but not in 2020

Texas - 38, Georgia - 16, Iowa - 6

Group 3 = 47 EV
Basically these two states have been fought over since 2000 and the winner of both of these states has won the election going back decades. I haven't heard much of Biden doing anything in Ohio and things I have been reading is that Biden is struggling big time with the hispanic vote in Florida. One article I read was that his lead in Miami over Trump is 17 points. Hillary won Miami by 30 points. That would make Florida impossible for Biden to win and also explains why he made a campaign stop there. When you are shoring up what should be a safe city this late in the game, that is not good.

Florida - 29, Ohio - 18


Group 1 + Group 2 + Group 3 = 233 Electoral Votes
These are all states Trump won in 2016 and barring something crazy, should be on track to win them again in 2020. That leaves him with 37 Electoral Votes to get to 270

This brings us too..........

Group 4 = 83 EV
This is where all of the action is going to be come election day.

North Carolina - 15 Electoral Votes
Definitely a state that is in play and the democrats are fighting hard or it. It looks like it is coming around to Trump and I suspect that Cal Cunningham's recent scandal is not going to help democrats particularly in their bid to take back the Senate because Thom Tillis was one of the weakest Republicans running for re-election. Right now, I think NC is lean Trump but it is going to be close

Arizona - 11 Electoral Votes
Another state that is going to be close and the polling has sort of been all over the place, but I think it is coming back Trump's way

Maine 2 - 1 Electoral vote
Hillary won Maine 2 in 2016 but it looks like Trump can flip it this year

If Trump wins Arizona, North Carolina and Maine 2 that puts him at 260 needing only 10 Electoral Votes to secure re-election

Pennsylvania - 20, Michigan - 16, Wisconsin - 10, New Hampshire - 4, Nevada - 6

Of the above, Trump won three in 2016 and Crooked Hillary won two

Trump just needs one of the three he won in 2016 to get to 270. Of the three, I think Pennsylvania looks the strongest because of Bidens stance on banning fracking and what I have been reading about GOP voter registration. I think Michigan may be the weakest and Trump could lose that this year

Additionally, New Hampshire and Nevada were very close in 2016 and there are signs that Trump isn't doing horribly if he can flip both of them he gets to 270

And then there are the other states that could be in play. Minnesota was VERY close to flipping in 2016. And while very long shots, there are New Mexico and Colorado (I seriously doubt those)


Final Analysis

Again, despite what others will claim, this is not intended to be a prediction. It is a deep level analysis of the Electoral College as I see it today. Of course this is a very unpredictable year and anything can happen. But, no matter where you sit on the political spectrum it would be foolish to think that Trump doesn't have a path to 270 Electoral College votes which is the only vote that matters

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Anyone who believes that Biden is ahead by 11 points in the polls is not paying attention

Anyone who believes that Biden is ahead by 7 points in the polls is not paying attention

Stop looking at polls and look at behaviors. Start looking at what campaigns are doing at this late stage in the game

There are 23 days left to go in the campaign and the most valuable resource a campaign has right now is TIME. You can't fund raise for more time. George Soros can't give Joe Biden more time. He can funnel illegal dark money through Act Blue, but he can't turn back the clock.

Watch where the candidates go in the remaining 23 days. Biden was in Erie PA, Miami FL and Las Vegas NV. If Biden were REALLY ahead by 11 points nationally, he wouldn't be in those three places this late in the game. Anyone saying he is "shoring up support" is whistling past the graveyard. If you are up 11 points in the state of Pennsylvania that means you are up 16 in Erie PA. You don't go to places where you are up 16 and you surely aren't still trying to convince people you won't ban fracking even though you are on video saying you will ban fracking.

The last time Biden was in Vegas was a year ago

Miami FL? Hillary won it by 30 points. Biden is up 17

If Biden were up 11 points nationally, he would be barnstorming Texas right now, not sending surrogates. He would be barnstorming North Carolina and Georgia right now.

Have hope. The fundamentals are favoring President Trump even though the polls are not

[canceled.2021.3]

Trumps path to 270 is much greater than Biden’s right now. Even Jarod agrees with me

If I were Biden I would not shoot for Florida, Georgia, Ohio or Iowa, I would hold tight and make sure I keep Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin. 270 = win just as 300 does.

[Jarod]

Trumps path to 270 is much greater than Biden’s right now. Even Jarod agrees with me

You have a reading comprehension problem.

[Jarod]

Anyone who believes that Biden is ahead by 11 points in the polls is not paying attention

Anyone who believes that Biden is ahead by 7 points in the polls is not paying attention

Stop looking at polls and look at behaviors. Start looking at what campaigns are doing at this late stage in the game

There are 23 days left to go in the campaign and the most valuable resource a campaign has right now is TIME. You can't fund raise for more time. George Soros can't give Joe Biden more time. He can funnel illegal dark money through Act Blue, but he can't turn back the clock.

Watch where the candidates go in the remaining 23 days. Biden was in Erie PA, Miami FL and Las Vegas NV. If Biden were REALLY ahead by 11 points nationally, he wouldn't be in those three places this late in the game. Anyone saying he is "shoring up support" is whistling past the graveyard. If you are up 11 points in the state of Pennsylvania that means you are up 16 in Erie PA. You don't go to places where you are up 16 and you surely aren't still trying to convince people you won't ban fracking even though you are on video saying you will ban fracking.

The last time Biden was in Vegas was a year ago

Miami FL? Hillary won it by 30 points. Biden is up 17

If Biden were up 11 points nationally, he would be barnstorming Texas right now, not sending surrogates. He would be barnstorming North Carolina and Georgia right now.

Have hope. The fundamentals are favoring President Trump even though the polls are not

Trump held a rally in Ocala.

[Jarod]

It should be noted that this is not a prediction. This is just a deep level analysis based on what we know today based on state polling, as well as how the candidates are conducting their campaign.

The country has been flooded with some junk polling lately showing Biden with double digit national lead over Trump. Of course Real Clear Politics will be quick to throw these junk polls into their "average" to skew the "average" in favor of Biden.

While I don't completely discount these polls and I will admit seeing Rasmussen with a double digit lead did get my attention, I have to remind myself AND you that the Presidential election is played for Electoral College votes and not the "national vote" despite what the marxists tell you.

So with that in mind does Trump have a path to 270 Electoral College Votes? Actually he has a very strong path.

I have broken the analysis into four groups. Group 1 are states with very little chance of voting for Biden. Group 2 are states marxists make some noise about, but are probably still going to be red. Group 3 are the same battleground states that have been fought over since 2000 and finally Group 4 are today's haul of battle ground states.

So, let's begin


Group 1 = 126 EV
These states should be a lock for Trump.

Montana - 3, Alaska - 3, Idaho - 4, Wyoming - 3, N. Dakota - 3, S. Dakota - 3, Nebraska - 5, Utah - 6, Kansas - 6, Oklahoma - 7, Missouri - 10, Arkansas - 6, Louisiana - 8, Mississippi - 6, Alabama - 9, Tennessee - 11, Kentucky - 8, S. Carolina - 9, Indiana - 11, W. Virginia - 5

Group 2 = 60 EV
This group are states that you heard noises about democrats trying to flip and who knows, maybe someday they will, but not in 2020

Texas - 38, Georgia - 16, Iowa - 6

Group 3 = 47 EV
Basically these two states have been fought over since 2000 and the winner of both of these states has won the election going back decades. I haven't heard much of Biden doing anything in Ohio and things I have been reading is that Biden is struggling big time with the hispanic vote in Florida. One article I read was that his lead in Miami over Trump is 17 points. Hillary won Miami by 30 points. That would make Florida impossible for Biden to win and also explains why he made a campaign stop there. When you are shoring up what should be a safe city this late in the game, that is not good.

Florida - 29, Ohio - 18


Group 1 + Group 2 + Group 3 = 233 Electoral Votes
These are all states Trump won in 2016 and barring something crazy, should be on track to win them again in 2020. That leaves him with 37 Electoral Votes to get to 270

This brings us too..........

Group 4 = 83 EV
This is where all of the action is going to be come election day.

North Carolina - 15 Electoral Votes
Definitely a state that is in play and the democrats are fighting hard or it. It looks like it is coming around to Trump and I suspect that Cal Cunningham's recent scandal is not going to help democrats particularly in their bid to take back the Senate because Thom Tillis was one of the weakest Republicans running for re-election. Right now, I think NC is lean Trump but it is going to be close

Arizona - 11 Electoral Votes
Another state that is going to be close and the polling has sort of been all over the place, but I think it is coming back Trump's way

Maine 2 - 1 Electoral vote
Hillary won Maine 2 in 2016 but it looks like Trump can flip it this year

If Trump wins Arizona, North Carolina and Maine 2 that puts him at 260 needing only 10 Electoral Votes to secure re-election

Pennsylvania - 20, Michigan - 16, Wisconsin - 10, New Hampshire - 4, Nevada - 6

Of the above, Trump won three in 2016 and Crooked Hillary won two

Trump just needs one of the three he won in 2016 to get to 270. Of the three, I think Pennsylvania looks the strongest because of Bidens stance on banning fracking and what I have been reading about GOP voter registration. I think Michigan may be the weakest and Trump could lose that this year

Additionally, New Hampshire and Nevada were very close in 2016 and there are signs that Trump isn't doing horribly if he can flip both of them he gets to 270

And then there are the other states that could be in play. Minnesota was VERY close to flipping in 2016. And while very long shots, there are New Mexico and Colorado (I seriously doubt those)


Final Analysis

Again, despite what others will claim, this is not intended to be a prediction. It is a deep level analysis of the Electoral College as I see it today. Of course this is a very unpredictable year and anything can happen. But, no matter where you sit on the political spectrum it would be foolish to think that Trump doesn't have a path to 270 Electoral College votes which is the only vote that matters

Based on the current state of the race you are delusional. Trump is losing badly in the 4 Great Lakes states. He is close in Iowa and Ohio. Losing in Arizona, Nevada and New Hampshire.

Close in Florida, Georgia and North Carolina.

Unless things change dramatically in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan or Pennsylvania I don’t see how Trump can win.

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Based on the current state of the race you are delusional. Trump is losing badly in the 4 Great Lakes states. He is close in Iowa and Ohio. Losing in Arizona, Nevada and New Hampshire.

Close in Florida, Georgia and North Carolina.

Unless things change dramatically in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan or Pennsylvania I don’t see how Trump can win.

Are you saying that there is NO path to 270 from the 233 Trump has in the bank? Because I am not saying that he is guaranteed to win those states. I am saying that he has a very solid path to 270.

So you have accepted that he has 233 in the bank. So how does he get the other 37?

Well here are some combinations

NC + AZ + MN
NC + AZ + WI
NC + AZ + PA
PA + WI + NH
PA + WI + NV
PA + WI + AZ

I could go on, but you get the point. Trump has a path forward and he doesn't have to win all of the rust belt states. Biden can't win without the rust belt states. This isn't hard to figure out if you are grounded in reality and logic as I am

[Jarod]

Are you saying that there is NO path to 270 from the 233 Trump has in the bank? Because I am not saying that he is guaranteed to win those states. I am saying that he has a very solid path to 270.

So you have accepted that he has 233 in the bank. So how does he get the other 37?

Well here are some combinations

NC + AZ + MN
NC + AZ + WI
NC + AZ + PA
PA + WI + NH
PA + WI + NV
PA + WI + AZ

I could go on, but you get the point. Trump has a path forward and he doesn't have to win all of the rust belt states. Biden can't win without the rust belt states. This isn't hard to figure out if you are grounded in reality and logic as I am

I would not agree that he has 233 in the bank.

Yes all of your paths require one or more of the great lakes states, and I don’t think they are in play.

[Jarod]

Nate Silver is smarter than you, by a long shot.


https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...ut-they-could/

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I would not agree that he has 233 in the bank.

Yes all of your paths require one or more of the great lakes states, and I don’t think they are in play.

Ok

[canceled.2021.3]

Nate Silver is smarter than you, by a long shot.


https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...ut-they-could/

But I was right about 2016 and Nate Silver was wrong so..........

[Jarod]

But I was right about 2016 and Nate Silver was wrong so..........

Nate Silver was not wrong.

[canceled.2021.3]

Nate Silver was not wrong.

He was

Amazingly so

But put your faith in him again. That is ok

[Jarod]

He was

Amazingly so

But put your faith in him again. That is ok

How so? He gave Trump more of a chance of winning than most. As long as he gave him a chance.... he was not wrong. Learn logic.


If I say something has a 1% chance of happening, and then it happens... I was not wrong, it just means one out of a hundred happened. That is common.

When you buy a ticket, you have a 1 in 14,000,000 chance of winning the Florida lottery, and someone wins about 35 times a year.

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How so? He gave Trump more of a chance of winning than most. As long as he gave him a chance.... he was not wrong. Learn logic.


If I say something has a 1% chance of happening, and then it happens... I was not wrong, it just means one out of a hundred happened. That is common.

When you buy a ticket, you have a 1 in 14,000,000 chance of winning the Florida lottery, and someone wins about 35 times a year.

Ok