This is a great read. Which side are you on?

**canceled.2021.2** · 10-07-2020, 03:43 PM

https://spectator.org/polls-trump-biden/

If you believe the polls, then it would appear to be Biden's race to lose

If you believe the fundamentals then it is Trump's to lose

Honestly, I am not sure what to believe. CNN/NBC polls are garbage, but Rasmussen has been an historically good poll so it would be dishonest to discount it out of hand.

The only way to explain this if Trump wins is that we will see a reordering of the political landscape none of the polls can capture. The reason I dismiss CNN/NBC polls out of hand is that they are still using registered voter models and over sample democrats. Rasmussen uses a likely voter model and seems to have the sampling correct.

Clearly I want Trump to win, but not sure I can make a prediction right now. From an electoral college standpoint, Trump has a path to victory even if he loses some of the rust belt states that he won in 2016 so that is still in his favor.

I am not sure any sane person believes Biden is going to win by 12%, but who knows?

We will find out on Election Day

**Legion** · 10-07-2020, 03:47 PM

Originally Posted by Teflon Don

https://spectator.org/polls-trump-biden/

If you believe the polls, then it would appear to be Biden's race to lose

If you believe the fundamentals then it is Trump's to lose

Honestly, I am not sure what to believe. CNN/NBC polls are garbage, but Rasmussen has been an historically good poll so it would be dishonest to discount it out of hand.

The only way to explain this if Trump wins is that we will see a reordering of the political landscape none of the polls can capture. The reason I dismiss CNN/NBC polls out of hand is that they are still using registered voter models and over sample democrats. Rasmussen uses a likely voter model and seems to have the sampling correct.

Clearly I want Trump to win, but not sure I can make a prediction right now. From an electoral college standpoint, Trump has a path to victory even if he loses some of the rust belt states that he won in 2016 so that is still in his favor.

I am not sure any sane person believes Biden is going to win by 12%, but who knows?

We will find out on Election Day

I cannot place any faith in polls, because they all have a fatal flaw.

**canceled.2021.2** · 10-07-2020, 03:55 PM

Originally Posted by Legion

I cannot place any faith in polls, because they all have a fatal flaw.

and that fatal flaw is what Comrade?

does that mean you think the fundamentals favor a Trump victory?

**Legion** · 10-07-2020, 04:04 PM

Originally Posted by Teflon Don

and that fatal flaw is what Comrade?

Pollsters have no means of determining whether the answers they receive are the truth.

Originally Posted by Teflon Don

does that mean you think the fundamentals favor a Trump victory?

I make no predictions.

**canceled.2021.2** · 10-07-2020, 04:31 PM

Originally Posted by Legion

Pollsters have no means of determining whether the answers they receive are the truth.

I make no predictions.

That is a great point. For the first time ever, I answered the phone and answered a poll just for laughs. I lied about EVERY single question including my race, age and who I was voting for and why. So I know this poll has at least one bogus data point in their sample

**Legion** · 10-07-2020, 04:33 PM

Originally Posted by Teflon Don

That is a great point. For the first time ever, I answered the phone and answered a poll just for laughs. I lied about EVERY single question including my race, age and who I was voting for and why. So I know this poll has at least one bogus data point in their sample

I rest my case.

**Celticguy** · 10-07-2020, 04:38 PM

People dont want to say it but voting against your onw pocketbook is very hard to do.
Pedo Joe has not even tried to lie about raising taxes. And given his costarring role with BO, you know he cant handle an economy.
His track record is right there and its terrible.

**Legion** · 10-07-2020, 04:54 PM

Originally Posted by Celticguy

People dont want to say it but voting against your onw pocketbook is very hard to do.
Pedo Joe has not even tried to lie about raising taxes. And given his costarring role with BO, you know he cant handle an economy.
His track record is right there and its terrible.

The average leftist think that Slow Joe and his Congressional confederates will only raise taxes on "the rich".

The rich know that Slow Joe and his Congressional confederates will leave plenty of loopholes for "the rich", because Slow Joe and his Congressional confederates are rich, too.

The n=middle class (or what's left of it) will get the bill, and the poor will make up the difference in increasingly regressive taxes on the necessities of life.

**Celticguy** · 10-07-2020, 05:28 PM

Originally Posted by Legion

The average leftist think that Slow Joe and his Congressional confederates will only raise taxes on "the rich".

The rich know that Slow Joe and his Congressional confederates will leave plenty of loopholes for "the rich", because Slow Joe and his Congressional confederates are rich, too.

The n=middle class (or what's left of it) will get the bill, and the poor will make up the difference in increasingly regressive taxes on the necessities of life.

He already said hes rolling back Trump's tax cuts and while they like to say 'what cut' they know they got one.
They also know that wont be all.
Suburbia knows its BOHICA time and in a big way. Moreover, that makes it impossible to have an economy.
Paradigms have shifted which is why people are lying.

**anonymoose** · 10-07-2020, 05:57 PM

Originally Posted by Teflon Don

That is a great point. For the first time ever, I answered the phone and answered a poll just for laughs. I lied about EVERY single question including my race, age and who I was voting for and why. So I know this poll has at least one bogus data point in their sample

lol, I did the exact same thing this morning.
The "pollster" was obviously a campaign worker for an "independent" candidate (no candidate dare run as a dim in AK) so I played along and said I was undecided and independent.
One example of a question: Since Don Young (R) has been involved in such and sucha scandal he lost his committee chairmanship. Will that make you more or less likely to vote for him.
anonymoose: more likely
Q: Don Young voted against medical insurance for those infected with Coronavirus. Will that make you more or less likely to vote for him?
Anonymoose: more likely
Q. Don Young lied about his favorable stance on opening the Pebble mine knowing the mine will kill all the salmon in the universe. Will this make you more or less likely to vote for him?
anonymoose: more likely
Q. Who are you most likely to vote for president?
anonymoose: Kanye West

Originally Posted by Celticguy

Paradigms have shifted which is why people are lying.

I can't even imagine telling the truth for these "polls".