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Thread: Virus nearly done virusing in Japan

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    Quote Originally Posted by AProudLefty View Post
    Nah. The experts are well aware of this.
    Ok, the most plausible explanation for why Japan is quiet is they reached herd immunity—or they are close enough to it that a major outbreak is off the table.

    At what point should the ‘experts’ make this announcement? By the end of the day? Next week? Never?
    Coup has started. First of many steps. Impeachment will follow ultimately~WB attorney Mark Zaid, January 2017

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    "These findings should also take into context the epidemiological dynamics seen during this COVID-19 wave. Japan took the atypical step of not instituting a mandatory lockdown..." [OP link]
    Coup has started. First of many steps. Impeachment will follow ultimately~WB attorney Mark Zaid, January 2017

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    "During this time, businesses, restaurants, and transportation were kept open, and public life continued relatively unabated. Nevertheless, the second wave peaked and subsided on its own... the possibility of herd immunity
    should be considered." [OP link]
    Coup has started. First of many steps. Impeachment will follow ultimately~WB attorney Mark Zaid, January 2017

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    Quote Originally Posted by Darth Omar View Post
    Ok, the most plausible explanation for why Japan is quiet is they reached herd immunity—or they are close enough to it that a major outbreak is off the table.

    At what point should the ‘experts’ make this announcement? By the end of the day? Next week? Never?
    They are not being quiet. You found the paper.

    Anyway, the source says more tests are needed and that herd immunity was a possibility.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Darth Omar View Post
    Results: Six hundred fifteen healthy volunteers (mean + SD 40.8 + 10.0; range 19 - 69; 45.7 % female) received at least one test. Seroprevalence increased from 5.8 % to 46.8 % over the course of the summer.

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...796v1.full.pdf
    _____________

    Translation: nearly half the of those tested were COVID immune by the end of summer. No wonder Japan is quiet.

    JPP herd immunity/science deniers may want to prepare for a little back-tracking.
    My son Josh who lives and works in Tokyo can confirm that!

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    Quote Originally Posted by AProudLefty View Post
    They are not being quiet. You found the paper.

    Anyway, the source says more tests are needed and that herd immunity was a possibility.
    My son lives there!!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Darth Omar View Post
    To whatever extent masks actually slow the rate of transmission that translates into slowing down the race to herd immunity.

    You ‘want’ as many people as possible to get infected because infection confers immunity.
    Dumb comment.


    From your test:

    21.4 % of those individualswho tested seronegative became seropositive and seroreversion was found in 12.2 % ofinitially seropositive participants. 81.1% of IgM positive cases at first testing becameIgM negative in approximately one month.

    Second, IgM positivity is short-lived, typically turning negative over one month.Third, seroreversion was not infrequent, seen in 12% of participants over the one-monthspan between tests. This suggests that serological testing may significantlyunderestimate past COVID-19 infections, particularly when applied to an asymptomaticpopulation.
    This study has several limitations. First, the cohort was a sampling of a single largecompany in Tokyo and not of the population, in general. Second, detailed medicalhistories and behavioral patterns of each employee were not obtained. Suchinformation would have been helpful in understanding the role of cross-exposure andthe factors associated with reduced fatality. Third, paired testing was separated by amonth. Closer intervals may have yielded more granular insights into the immunologicalresponses to SARS-CoV-2 infection.

    There is no herd immunity. What this study shows, is that asymptomatic individuals can indeed spread Covid.
    Once in a while you get shown the light, in the strangest of places if you look at it right.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Grajonca View Post
    My son lives there!!
    Lucky him!

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    Quote Originally Posted by AProudLefty View Post
    They are not being quiet. You found the paper.

    Anyway, the source says more tests are needed and that herd immunity was a possibility.
    Actually, it proves that there is no herd immunity for Covid. Notwithstanding the claim that it is 'possible'. It can't be possible if nobody retains the antibodies.
    Once in a while you get shown the light, in the strangest of places if you look at it right.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Althea View Post
    Actually, it proves that there is no herd immunity for Covid. Notwithstanding the claim that it is 'possible'. It can't be possible if nobody retains the antibodies.
    Thank you.

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    Quote Originally Posted by AProudLefty View Post
    That's fine. Until then, wait.
    Japan wants very badly to host the Olympics in 2021. They have preordered massive doses of vaccine and plan to vaccinate their people. They also plan to cover the cost of adverse reactions to the vaccines. This plan does not sound like a country who has herd immunity.

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    Quote Originally Posted by AProudLefty View Post
    Thank you.
    Who do you want to listen to, a proven bullshitter like NotAllThere or actual science?

    https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020...-term-immunity

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    Quote Originally Posted by Phantasmal View Post
    Japan wants very badly to host the Olympics in 2021. They have preordered massive doses of vaccine and plan to vaccinate their people. They also plan to cover the cost of adverse reactions to the vaccines. This plan does not sound like a country who has herd immunity.
    Holy fuck, here comes Doc Doris with her two yen!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Althea View Post
    Dumb comment.


    From your test:









    There is no herd immunity. What this study shows, is that asymptomatic individuals can indeed spread Covid.
    There are no categorical statements to be made about a *novel* virus. That’s dumb.

    "This suggests that serological testing may significantly
    underestimate past COVID-19 infections, particularly when applied to an asymptomatic population." [OP link]
    ___________

    *Something* has to explain Japan. If it’s not herd immunity, what is it?

    The study’s authors were forced to leave open the possibility of herd immunity.
    Coup has started. First of many steps. Impeachment will follow ultimately~WB attorney Mark Zaid, January 2017

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    Quote Originally Posted by Darth Omar View Post
    There are no categorical statements to be made about a *novel* virus. That’s dumb.

    "This suggests that serological testing may significantly
    underestimate past COVID-19 infections, particularly when applied to an asymptomatic population." [OP link]
    ___________

    *Something* has to explain Japan. If it’s not herd immunity, what is it?

    The study’s authors were forced to leave open the possibility of herd immunity.
    Perhaps you should read your link?

    I highlighted the admitted shortcoming in the test. Overwhelmingly, the study proves that there cannot be herd immunity without a vaccine.


    'Possibility' is not something that you want to see in a scientific study.

    I'm looking for, at the very least, 'probability'.
    Once in a while you get shown the light, in the strangest of places if you look at it right.

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