Trump's Base Is Shrinking As Whites Without A College Degree Continue To Decline

[Guno צְבִי]

Trump's base has gotten smaller.

That's a key finding of an analysis of how the U.S. electorate has changed since 2016, based on census data analyzed by the Brookings Institution and NPR.

In 2016, Trump was helped to victory by winning a record margin among white voters without a college degree. But in the last four years, they have declined as a share of the voting-eligible population across the U.S. and in states critical to the presidential election. Nationally, the group has gone from 45% of eligible voters to 41%.

Meanwhile, some other demographic cohorts — whites with a college degree, Latinos and, to a lesser extent, Asian Americans and other groups — have all gone up.


Of the 16 states most likely to be closely contested this election, all but two have seen a decline in whites without a college degree as a share of eligible voters. College-educated whites, on the other hand, have gained in 14 of those states, according to the analysis.

With Trump facing an uphill reelection battle, the findings underscore that it's not just that he's winning smaller margins among some key groups, according to public opinion surveys, as compared with 2016 — but that the pool of people who appear most open to his message is shallower.

"Demography keeps moving along," said demographer William Frey, a senior fellow at Brookings who compiled and analyzed the data.

https://www.npr.org/2020/09/03/90743...nue-to-decline

[Blackwater Lunchbreak]

Trump's base has gotten smaller.

That's a key finding of an analysis of how the U.S. electorate has changed since 2016, based on census data analyzed by the Brookings Institution and NPR.

In 2016, Trump was helped to victory by winning a record margin among white voters without a college degree. But in the last four years, they have declined as a share of the voting-eligible population across the U.S. and in states critical to the presidential election. Nationally, the group has gone from 45% of eligible voters to 41%.

Meanwhile, some other demographic cohorts — whites with a college degree, Latinos and, to a lesser extent, Asian Americans and other groups — have all gone up.


Of the 16 states most likely to be closely contested this election, all but two have seen a decline in whites without a college degree as a share of eligible voters. College-educated whites, on the other hand, have gained in 14 of those states, according to the analysis.

With Trump facing an uphill reelection battle, the findings underscore that it's not just that he's winning smaller margins among some key groups, according to public opinion surveys, as compared with 2016 — but that the pool of people who appear most open to his message is shallower.

"Demography keeps moving along," said demographer William Frey, a senior fellow at Brookings who compiled and analyzed the data.

https://www.npr.org/2020/09/03/90743...nue-to-decline

you're so played out with your dumb bullshit.

[Minister of Truth]

you're so played out with your dumb bullshit.

Goony won't like a brown America. He hates Christians more than he hates white atheists.

[Flash]

Trump's base has gotten smaller.

That's a key finding of an analysis of how the U.S. electorate has changed since 2016, based on census data analyzed by the Brookings Institution and NPR.

In 2016, Trump was helped to victory by winning a record margin among white voters without a college degree. But in the last four years, they have declined as a share of the voting-eligible population across the U.S. and in states critical to the presidential election. Nationally, the group has gone from 45% of eligible voters to 41%.

It sounds like the Trump people need to work on turnout. As the last part of the NPR analysis states:

"None of this is to say who will turn out to the polls. This analysis is looking only at people eligible to vote, not who will show up — and those are very different things.

That's why the campaigns are working so hard to turn out their voters, especially now with hyperpartisanship dominating. For Trump, that means getting out more white non-college-educated voters.

Trump may have won a record margin among whites without a college degree, but their turnout rate was not remarkable as compared with past presidential elections. In fact, it was lower than in both 2008 and 2004.

Trump won a record margin of white voters without a college degree in 2016, but they didn't turn out at a record rate.
NPR/Brookings Institution

Trump has done very little to reach out beyond his base. But as the Cook Political Report's David Wasserman has noted, half of all nonvoters in 2016 were whites without a college degree.

So, on the one hand, there's clearly room to grow for Trump with his base group of voters.

On the other hand, it's unclear why they would turn out for Trump at higher levels than in 2016. Majorities of Americans this year disapprove of the job he's doing overall and his handling of the coronavirus pandemic.

What's more, Hillary Clinton isn't on the ballot. Biden is seen far less negatively than Clinton was.

Still, the need for white non-college-educated voters to turn out in larger numbers for this president might well explain the culture-war messaging and crime warnings of the now-wrapped-up Republican National Convention.

[Guno צְבִי]

The U.S. is diversifying more quickly in the South and West, and we've seen traditionally Republican Arizona, Georgia and Texas emerge as battlegrounds.

Demography is largely responsible for that. In four key Sun Belt states, including Florida, the share of non-college-educated whites has gone down, while Latinos are on the rise.

In Arizona, in particular, whites without a college degree are down 5 points since 2016, and Latinos are up 6. Latinos now make up almost a third of the voting-eligible population in the state. In 2016, they made up only 15% of voters,

[T. A. Gardner]

The U.S. is diversifying more quickly in the South and West, and we've seen traditionally Republican Arizona, Georgia and Texas emerge as battlegrounds.

Demography is largely responsible for that. In four key Sun Belt states, including Florida, the share of non-college-educated whites has gone down, while Latinos are on the rise.

In Arizona, in particular, whites without a college degree are down 5 points since 2016, and Latinos are up 6. Latinos now make up almost a third of the voting-eligible population in the state. In 2016, they made up only 15% of voters,

Too bad for the Left that most Hispanics don't like the Left. They tend to be very religious, conservative, and opposed to more government, particularly those who got years of oppressive government where they used to live...

[Yakuda]

Trump's base has gotten smaller.

That's a key finding of an analysis of how the U.S. electorate has changed since 2016, based on census data analyzed by the Brookings Institution and NPR.

In 2016, Trump was helped to victory by winning a record margin among white voters without a college degree. But in the last four years, they have declined as a share of the voting-eligible population across the U.S. and in states critical to the presidential election. Nationally, the group has gone from 45% of eligible voters to 41%.

Meanwhile, some other demographic cohorts — whites with a college degree, Latinos and, to a lesser extent, Asian Americans and other groups — have all gone up.


Of the 16 states most likely to be closely contested this election, all but two have seen a decline in whites without a college degree as a share of eligible voters. College-educated whites, on the other hand, have gained in 14 of those states, according to the analysis.

With Trump facing an uphill reelection battle, the findings underscore that it's not just that he's winning smaller margins among some key groups, according to public opinion surveys, as compared with 2016 — but that the pool of people who appear most open to his message is shallower.

"Demography keeps moving along," said demographer William Frey, a senior fellow at Brookings who compiled and analyzed the data.

https://www.npr.org/2020/09/03/90743...nue-to-decline

But you "educated" cockroaches will vote for that racist piece of shit Biden?

[Tacomaman]

Yes, as compared to the bigger racist and much bigger piece of shit named tRump (aka "I wanna bang my daughter" Donnie)

[Blackwater Lunchbreak]

Yes, as compared to the bigger racist and much bigger piece of shit named tRump (aka "I wanna bang my daughter" Donnie)

rule 12b violation. you're gone.

[Yakuda]

Yes, as compared to the bigger racist and much bigger piece of shit named tRump (aka "I wanna bang my daughter" Donnie)

Who said obaba was the first clean African American? Who said you can't Go into a 7-11 in if you haven't got an Indian accent? Its painful to watch how fucking stupid you are.

[Truth Detector]

Trump's Base Is Shrinking As Whites Without A College Degree Continue To Decline
Trump's base has gotten smaller.

November is going to be harsh on America hating, psychotic race hustling morons on the left.



guAno
noun
gua·no | \ ˈgwä-(ˌ)nō
: a fertilizer containing the accumulated excrement of seabirds or bats broadly : excrement especially of seabirds or bats

[Truth Detector]

The U.S. is diversifying more quickly in the South and West, and we've seen traditionally Republican Arizona, Georgia and Texas emerge as battlegrounds.

Demography is largely responsible for that. In four key Sun Belt states, including Florida, the share of non-college-educated whites has gone down, while Latinos are on the rise.

In Arizona, in particular, whites without a college degree are down 5 points since 2016, and Latinos are up 6. Latinos now make up almost a third of the voting-eligible population in the state. In 2016, they made up only 15% of voters,

White House controlled by Republicans.

Senate controlled by Republicans

26 States have Republican Governors.

Republicans Have Full Control of 22 State legislatures, Democrats 15

Conservatives on the Supreme Court = 6 to 3 after Trump replaces Ginsberg.

Morons like guAno think they are winning.

guAno
noun
gua·no | \ ˈgwä-(ˌ)nō
: a fertilizer containing the accumulated excrement of seabirds or bats broadly : excrement especially of seabirds or bats

[Truth Detector]

Yes, as compared to the bigger racist and much bigger piece of shit named tRump (aka "I wanna bang my daughter" Donnie)

Trumps not a racist. You look stupid and dishonest every time you bloviate that asinine lie. November is going to be harsh on low IQ, America hating loons like you. Maybe you will kill yourself after Trump is re-elected? I hope so. No one would notice. No one would care.

[Guno צְבִי]

[T. A. Gardner]

Yea, this lame stuff cuts both ways...