My election prediction!

[canceled.2021.3]

I do not consider myself very much of a political prognosticator, I have been wrong as much as I am correct. I was wrong in 2016 and that has made me more careful.

However, I have been studying this years election and where we are and I have been asked to offer a prediction..... Until now I have held off because I did not think it was reasonable to make a prediction because it has been nothing but a shot in the dark, but I think I am ready to say that we have enough evidence to make a guess with a reasonable degree of likelihood that will be correct.

The polling this year is very unusually consistent, and that makes it a lot different than in 2016. Most Americans have made their mind up about Donald Trump and more recently seem to have rejected the idea that Joe Biden is suffering from some form of dementia. Biden, in the eyes of many is a reasonable alternative.

With a majority of voters seeming to have decided that Trump is not a good choice and that Biden is an acceptable one, and Biden polling over 50% in enough states to put his electoral vote count above 270 (This occured last week.) I think my prediction is solid. Arizona, Minnesota, Michigan and Wisconsin seem to have come safely into the Biden collum. Florida, Pennsylvania and North Carolina are all three tossups, with Pennsylvania leaning toward Biden. Since both candidates are already very well known by the voters. I am ready to say that unless something unforeseen occurs that changes the dynamic of this race (it might happen) Joe Biden and Kamilla Harris will be elected President and Vice President of the United States of America in 43 days.

There are still the debates, and maybe Biden will come out and step on his dick, or maybe Trump* has a huge October surprise that will come out, but like I said, if the fundamentals do not change Biden wins.

I was going to post this over the weekend, but decided to wait and consider if I felt the death of Ruth Bader Ginsberg would affect the outcome. I have thought about it, and read some thoughts of experts and talked to people I respect and I believe it will not fundamentally change the outcome, and if it does... it has just as much a chance of helping Biden as it does of helping Trump*.

I am happy to discuss...

Change my mind?!?!?!?

Why would you want someone to change your mind?

Funny that only a few days ago you weren’t making predictions.

Too funny

[Jarod]

I think Biden will win the popular vote by at least 5 million.

I think the Democrats will flip the seats they need to take the Senate back.

I think the Democrats will expand their House majority by about 10 seats.

I think Biden surprises with a win in Georgia, but I think he loses Texas by less than 2%.

On a state level, I think if Biden wins Texas, the state legislature will flip to blue.

I think there's going to be several state houses that change hands.

This SCOTUS fight is what motivated Democrats in 2018...no reason to believe they wouldn't repeat that performance in 2020.

I think you are likely correct about the SCOUTS fight, it will blow up for them, I think they know it also, but what can they do...

I do not think Biden will get Georgia, they have closed down lots of polling sites in minority areas and have made the lines very long to vote.
I think Texas will be 3-4% for Trump.

I like your thoughts about SOCUTS.

[Jarod]

Why would you want someone to change your mind?

Funny that only a few days ago you weren’t making predictions.

Too funny

I would like to hear a compelling argument about why I am wrong, I always like to learn.

[Jarod]

Still not a single compelling argument against my prediction. Telling.

[PostmodernProphet]

You mean like it was in 2018 with Kavanaugh?What happened in 2018?

Oh right, the Democrats won the House with a 10,000,000 vote margin.

the House wasn't involved with the Kavanaugh hearings......the senate was......the Demmycrats lost seats in the senate.....

[LV426]

the House wasn't involved with the Kavanaugh hearings......the senate was......the Demmycrats lost seats in the senate.....

Yet, received 18,000,000 more votes for the Senate than the GOP did.

[LV426]

the House wasn't involved with the Kavanaugh hearings......the senate was......the Demmycrats lost seats in the senate.....

OK, go for it if you think you're so sure in the outcome.

[PostmodernProphet]

There are still the debates, and maybe Biden will come out and step on his dick, or maybe Trump* has a huge October surprise that will come out, but like I said, if the fundamentals do not change Biden wins.

the question isn't whether Biden will step on his dick in the debates.......the question is how many times will Biden step on his dick in the debates....

[PostmodernProphet]

Yet, received 18,000,000 more votes for the Senate than the GOP did.

does that really make you feel better about losing the seats.......odd.......

[PostmodernProphet]

OK, go for it if you think you're so sure in the outcome.

????.....I'm not running for senate......

[LV426]

does that really make you feel better about losing the seats.......odd.......

The Democrats had to defend 22 seats that cycle and lost two.

The GOP has to defend 23 this cycle.

They're going to lose a lot more than 2.

[LV426]

????.....I'm not running for senate......

No, you're just cheerleading from the bench. Because no one will ever put you in the game.

Benchwarmer.

You're the kid that the coach is forced to play.

[ExpressLane]

That might go either way.

The Republicans won’t be rioting. Americans don’t like riots

[Legion]

I love liberal predictions.

[Sailor]

The Republicans won’t be rioting. Americans don’t like riots

Democrats still will though. Probably even more. They are going to want that free shit immediately.