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Thread: Why Is The Stock Market Doing So Well In A Bad Recession?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Micawber View Post
    Our thinking had everything to do with rooms, baths space, top schools and proximity to playmates for my kid.
    And the fact that if everything goes to shit, we both get fired, the stock market crashes and unemployment is at 25% we still have a house free and clear and can rent one out for income.
    There were 10 offers, only two all cash. It was on the market only three days. The market is white hot in that zip and inventory low.

    5/3, pool 12,000 ft lot, top schools, and an outdoor kitchen with a beer tap!
    I've convinced my wife that now is not the time to buy. I agree the market is hot, I think it cools in November/December, my portfolio should have fully recovered, and we are downsizing with an eye entirely to location. I expect that late this year early next year we'll be able to make a steal on a home. We're probably in a unique situation, we'll almost certainly be paying cash, so I don't care about the interest rate.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Concart View Post
    The effect is entirely psychological. The market responds to QE because it's good for the economy. Economics knows no idealogy. This is simply fact based. QE does not put more money in the money supply. It provides short term liquidity to banks. Banks won't tap it unless they have to. The ideological argument about QE is the that the Fed is 'printing money', but that completely oversimplifying things.
    We had the worst economic recovery since the Great Recession. It wasn't a booming economy that drove the stock market. We are in a recession today and have a booming stock market. It's not economic fundamentals that are driving equities. On top of that QE and low interest rates punish savers and force people to find riskier investments for yield. That's just a fact. It pushes bubbles (just as it did in housing).

    I'll admit I'm not smart enough to figure out why you are taking the position you are other than it's ideologically (politically partisan?) related.

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    Quote Originally Posted by cawacko View Post
    We had the worst economic recovery since the Great Recession. It wasn't a booming economy that drove the stock market. We are in a recession today and have a booming stock market. It's not economic fundamentals that are driving equities. On top of that QE and low interest rates punish savers and force people to find riskier investments for yield. That's just a fact. It pushes bubbles (just as it did in housing).

    I'll admit I'm not smart enough to figure out why you are taking the position you are other than it's ideologically (politically partisan?) related.
    Oh please. You think that worn out trope is anything but partisan? The recovery from 2008 was just fine.

    So tell me, and be specific, how QE 'punishes savers' and forces people to find riskier investments for yield. Specifically. Tell me the cause, instead of parroting something you read. Show me you actually understand it, because I see no evidence that you do.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Micawber View Post
    Money sloshing around needs to be some where. Bonds offer zero return.
    I placed several put contracts on ETF's about two months ago because the market is so overvalued. As of today my annualized return is 9.64%.
    You're right about bonds though. So far my return on closed end bond funds is 5.66%, the lowest.
    Last edited by anonymoose; 08-13-2020 at 09:24 AM.

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    Hello Concart.

    Quote Originally Posted by Concart View Post
    Oh please. You think that worn out trope is anything but partisan? The recovery from 2008 was just fine.
    THANK YOU! Of course it was. There is no 'instant recovery' from a crash like that. It was a responsible recovery which took time to build. As it should. There is no instantly putting together a strong economy. We are in the process of finding that out. Every foreclosure, eviction, job lost that's not coming back, and bankruptcy just makes any hope of a quick recovery all the more fleeting. Trump bungled the pandemic, and the resultant crashed economy is real and lasting damage.

    And it is all Trump's fault!
    Last edited by PoliTalker; 08-13-2020 at 10:50 AM.
    Personal Ignore Policy PIP: I like civil discourse. I will give you all the respect in the world if you respect me. Mouth off to me, or express overt racism, you will be PERMANENTLY Ignore Listed. Zero tolerance. No exceptions. I'll never read a word you write, even if quoted by another, nor respond to you, nor participate in your threads. ... Ignore the shallow. Cherish the thoughtful. Long Live Civil Discourse, Mutual Respect, and Good Debate! ps: Feel free to adopt my PIP. It works well.

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    Quote Originally Posted by PoliTalker View Post
    Hello Concart.



    THANK YOU! Of course it was. There is no 'instant recovery' from a crash like that. It was a responsible recovery which took time to build. As it should. There is no instantly putting together a strong economy. We are in the process if finding that out. Every foreclosure, eviction, job lost that's not coming back, and bankruptcy just makes any hope of a quick recovery all the more fleeting. Trump bungled the pandemic, and the resultant crashed economy is real and lasting damage.

    And it is all Trump's fault!
    Did Angela crash the German economy? Who is responsible for crashing Spain's economy? How about Finland's?
    Your post is really no different than anatta's

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    Quote Originally Posted by anonymoose View Post
    Did Angela crash the German economy? Who is responsible for crashing Spain's economy? How about Finland's?
    Your post is really no different than anatta's
    She's a loony lefty, waste of space.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Concart View Post
    I've convinced my wife that now is not the time to buy. I agree the market is hot, I think it cools in November/December, my portfolio should have fully recovered, and we are downsizing with an eye entirely to location. I expect that late this year early next year we'll be able to make a steal on a home. We're probably in a unique situation, we'll almost certainly be paying cash, so I don't care about the interest rate.
    We were planning on moving to Washington but all is on hold now. It's been a long time since metro Seattle has had a recession. I think they even did pretty well in 2008 if I remember correctly. If this brings Boeing down we might get a deal in Skagit Valley or Bellingham later.
    Last edited by anonymoose; 08-13-2020 at 09:54 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Concart View Post
    I've convinced my wife that now is not the time to buy. I agree the market is hot, I think it cools in November/December, my portfolio should have fully recovered, and we are downsizing with an eye entirely to location. I expect that late this year early next year we'll be able to make a steal on a home. We're probably in a unique situation, we'll almost certainly be paying cash, so I don't care about the interest rate.
    The best laid plans of mice and men oft go awry. Time will tell if I erred.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Grajonca View Post
    She's a loony lefty, waste of space.
    PoliSquaker is a she? I thought it was an effeminate old guy.
    Last edited by anonymoose; 08-13-2020 at 10:03 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by cawacko View Post
    the worst economic recovery
    That does not compute.


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    That is the most horrible million dollars anyone ever handed me.

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    Quote Originally Posted by anonymoose View Post
    PoliSquaker is a he? I thought it was an effeminate old guy.
    Yesu I believe so!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Concart View Post
    Oh please. You think that worn out trope is anything but partisan? The recovery from 2008 was just fine.

    So tell me, and be specific, how QE 'punishes savers' and forces people to find riskier investments for yield. Specifically. Tell me the cause, instead of parroting something you read. Show me you actually understand it, because I see no evidence that you do.
    Your response, plus Rana thanking the post, shows me this is 100% partisan. Blame Republicans 100% if you want, that doesn't change the fact this was the slowest economic recovery since the Great Recession. That's just a fact, not a trope and not partisan. It's not like it hasn't been discussed for years. I'm not saying something out of line. Usually I would post articles backing my point but in this case it's something you know already so google yourself if you want reinforcement.

    What I wrote is pretty clear regarding savings. I've seen others argue QE doesn't hurt savers. If that's your position state so.

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    I'm still stuck on "worst ecomonic recovery"

    We need to thank our lucky stars and pray Biden delivers another "worst economic recovery" after you shitstains fucked the world over....y-e-t a-g-a-i-n.

    How fantasmagorical is a recovery from the deepest economic global recession in history supposed to play out? Is there some playbook I can read?

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