The obvious is in plain site,

[cancel2 2022]

New York, who had as many as a thousand deaths a day in March when the pandemic first appeared, yesterday had five deaths from COVID, seven the day before. Their infection rate is one percent. Florida, who wasn’t hit with the virus back in March, had 124 deaths yesterday, with an infection rate averaging between ten and thirteen percent

Common sense dictates that New York did, and is still doing, the right thing, while Florida the exact opposite, and what is the common denominator, Trump, one State ignored Trump, the other couldn’t act fast enough to make him happy.

As I said, obvious

Blame Cuomo for dumping patients into nursing homes! Oh and learn to spell sight correctly, dopey old sod!

[Darth Omar]

What % of a population has to have been infected to achieve herd immunity? And how long does immunity have to last?

They re-opened in stages, following CDC guidelines. They emphasized distancing, masks, washing hands, testing & tracing.

All very simple, and proven. And it worked. It's too bad people can't put partisanship aside to acknowledge & follow a good example, for the sake of the greater good.

No, your assuming it has to do with mitigation because that makes Cuomo look good. Nothing is ‘proven’.

Herd immunity is a thing, it’s actually happens and it won’t be ruled out until there are a sufficient number of accurate seroprevalence studies done in NY.

[Darth Omar]

That's nice, but we're not talking about raw numbers. We're talking about the directions of the death rates. Who is handling it better since the virus became widespread in America?

That’s what you call a carefully crafted metric for gauging success lol.

As mentioned, until we can be sure of what NY’s ‘relative success’ is due to, its too early do declare a winner. The fact is the virus plowed through NY’s population like a knife through hot butter. We weren’t testing at an insane rate like we are now so we have no way of knowing what percentage of the population *have had it* already and/or had it in March/April/May.

The only way we can know that is through a sufficient number of seroprevalence studies and that almost surely won’t happen before the election.

Meanwhile, going forward, we have learned that states and regions can get to ‘post peak’ without the kind of grotesque, draconian, economy smothering and jobs killing measures that were taken earlier in the year.

Election year politics aside, that is what winning looks like.

[Phantasmal]

They stumbled and bumbled their way to herd immunity.

They don’t even know if there is herd immunity, how did New York achieve it? You’re saying 60% of their population was infected?

[anatta]

They don’t even know if there is herd immunity, how did New York achieve it? You’re saying 60% of their population was infected?

wouldnt be surprising. Consider the more we test the more we are finding it's beyond "extremely" infectious

But i think the fact NY isn't operating in close quarters like usual, compared to the SunBelts lifestyle
of being stuck inside A/C all day is the difference now.
~~

My new mantra is "coping with COVID" -which i do every day with a sister with a depressed immune system
and elderly mother I car egive.
I don't run to the store or hardware store or library or concerts of sports.... well you get it.. Limit your exposure
to what is necessary. Come in and scrub off, and dont wear your clothes and shoes you go out with inside

I just changed my ways to cope. It's not a big deal if you have a plan to do it

[anatta]

Meanwhile, going forward, we have learned that states and regions can get to ‘post peak’ without the kind of grotesque, draconian, economy smothering and jobs killing measures that were taken earlier in the year.
Election year politics aside, that is what winning looks like.

good. we can't absorb any more "grotesque, draconian, economy smothering and jobs killing measures"
Hopefully Florida is on the way down

[cancel2 2022]

No, your assuming it has to do with mitigation because that makes Cuomo look good. Nothing is ‘proven’.

Herd immunity is a thing, it’s actually happens and it won’t be ruled out until there are a sufficient number of accurate seroprevalence studies done in NY.

You'll like this, Nic Lewis is a climate scientist and is well acquainted with statistical analysis.

https://judithcurry.com/2020/07/27/w...hought-update/

[Darth Omar]

They don’t even know if there is herd immunity, how did New York achieve it? You’re saying 60% of their population was infected?

There are two clear instances where herd immunity remains a very plausible explanation: NY and Sweden.

We don’t know how much of either population has been affected because there haven’t been enough seroprevalence studies. The ones that have been done consistently show that a much higher percentage of the population has been infected/exposed to COVID than what was assumed.

It seems to explain some things.

[Darth Omar]

You'll like this, Nic Lewis is a climate scientist and is well acquainted with statistical analysis.

https://judithcurry.com/2020/07/27/w...hought-update/

A key reason for variability in susceptibility to COVID-19 given exposure to the SARS-CoV-2 virus causing is that the immune systems of a substantial proportion (35% to 80%) of unexposed individuals have T-cells, circulating antibodies or other components that are cross-reactive to SARS-CoV-2 and can be expected to provide substantial resistance to it.[6] [7] [8] [9] Such components likely arise from past exposure to common cold or other coronaviruses, or to influenza.[10] [from prior link]
_______________

Cross reactive immune components explains why so many people have mild infections and/or are asymptomatic AND it would lower the herd immunity threshold—significantly.

See, not all COVID news has to be bad and gloomy lol.

[Phantasmal]

There are two clear instances where herd immunity remains a very plausible explanation: NY and Sweden.

We don’t know how much of either population has been affected because there haven’t been enough seroprevalence studies. The ones that have been done consistently show that a much higher percentage of the population has been infected/exposed to COVID than what was assumed.

It seems to explain some things.

I’ve seen a estimate of 25% infected, do you have evidence it is higher?

[PostmodernProphet]

Then that would be Florida, NY had five State wide today, chances of dying from COVID are immensely higher in Florida than NY

sure, it would be Florida......if you ignore all the dead people in New York.......

[Darth Omar]

I’ve seen a estimate of 25% infected, do you have evidence it is higher?

There were half a dozen or so preliminary studies done months ago. Stanford was one and it showed a much higher than anticipated seroprevalence. But there’s cross-reactive immune components to consider; we don’t know how accurate the tests are and etc. IOW, it’s an open question as far as direct evidence goes.

But the fact these areas having an explosion of infections followed by a steep decrease in numbers follows an established pattern in epidemics—which is typically explained via herd immunity.

Speaking of tests, do we know the false positive rate in COVID PCR tests? All these states are having ridiculous case numbers but deaths aren’t tracking like they were in April/March.

How do we know we aren’t stuck in an endless feedback loop?

[Phantasmal]

There were half a dozen or so preliminary studies done months ago. Stanford was one and it showed a much higher than anticipated seroprevalence. But there’s cross-reactive immune components to consider; we don’t know how accurate the tests are and etc. IOW, it’s an open question as far as direct evidence goes.

But the fact these areas having an explosion of infections followed by a steep decrease in numbers follows an established pattern in epidemics—which is typically explained via herd immunity.

Speaking of tests, do we know the false positive rate in COVID PCR tests? All these states are having ridiculous case numbers but deaths aren’t tracking like they were in April/March.

How do we know we aren’t stuck in an endless feedback loop?

There were over 2,000 deaths yesterday, are you aware of that?

[Darth Omar]

There were over 2,000 deaths yesterday, are you aware of that?

Which means what in terms of the accuracy of PCR tests?

[anatta]

A key reason for variability in susceptibility to COVID-19 given exposure to the SARS-CoV-2 virus causing is that the immune systems of a substantial proportion (35% to 80%) of unexposed individuals have T-cells, circulating antibodies or other components that are cross-reactive to SARS-CoV-2 and can be expected to provide substantial resistance to it.[6] [7] [8] [9] Such components likely arise from past exposure to common cold or other coronaviruses, or to influenza.[10] [from prior link]
_______________

Cross reactive immune components explains why so many people have mild infections and/or are asymptomatic AND it would lower the herd immunity threshold—significantly.

See, not all COVID news has to be bad and gloomy lol.

antibodies and killer T-cell count are what fight it
Older and at risk are usually not at full levels. They need shuttering