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Thread: 2020 prediction from professor who called every election since 1984

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    Hello signalmankenneth,

    Quote Originally Posted by signalmankenneth View Post
    The professor famous for accurately predicting the winner of every presidential election since 1984 has issued his verdict for 2020: Joe Biden will defeat President Trump.

    American University Professor Allan Lichtman uses a system he created of 13 "keys" that decide who will win the White House. In 2016, Lichtman was one of the few forecasters who said Mr. Trump would be the next president — and he also predicted that Trump would be impeached. Four years after those calls, he foresees a Biden victory in November.

    "The keys predict that Trump will lose the White House," Lichtman says in a New York Times video op-ed released Wednesday.

    https://www.yahoo.com/news/2020-pred...181001596.html


    I hope he's right.
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    Quote Originally Posted by PoliTalker View Post
    Hello signalmankenneth,



    I hope he's right.
    He isnt. There is always an outlier,..THIS year is it. For multiple reasons.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Stone View Post
    He isnt. There is always an outlier,..THIS year is it. For multiple reasons.
    Possible, but it's more likely I'm going to lose a chunk of cash for betting on Trump. Trump was winning before the COVID crisis. Trump's bungling of the US response is what is going to cost him the election. RWers are screaming about "Hidin' Biden" but Biden is just playing it cool since all he has to do is let the body count tick up to 200,000 and watch Trump stick his own foot in his mouth daily.

    Maybe if Trump ordered a bottle of Hydroxychloroquine to every family in America he could get his numbers back up.

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...iden-6247.html


    God bless America and those who defend our Constitution.

    "Hatred is a failure of imagination" - Graham Greene, "The Power and the Glory"

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    Quote Originally Posted by Grajonca View Post
    Gloat away Bill, I can see trouble ahead.
    I'm gloating about a Brit giving blowjobs in a Thai Bathhouse and constantly bitches about America. What a loon!
    God bless America and those who defend our Constitution.

    "Hatred is a failure of imagination" - Graham Greene, "The Power and the Glory"

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bill View Post
    Wow, no gop armchair generals coming to clear this UP???

    Prob not, they know it's gonna happen..........

    He was Jesus' choice I thought??
    if so, we will have to see if Jesus or Lichtman wins.......
    Isaiah 6:5
    “Woe to me!” I cried. “I am ruined! For I am a man of unclean lips, and I live among a people of unclean lips, and my eyes have seen the King, the Lord Almighty.”

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    Quote Originally Posted by Althea View Post
    Isn't this the guy who claimed trump would win just a few months ago?

    Granted, a lot has happened since then
    I wonder if anything will happen between now and November......
    Isaiah 6:5
    “Woe to me!” I cried. “I am ruined! For I am a man of unclean lips, and I live among a people of unclean lips, and my eyes have seen the King, the Lord Almighty.”

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    Quote Originally Posted by Althea View Post
    Despite his overtly racist pledges to 'protect the suburbs'.
    are the suburbs racist?......is that because, unlike Latinos, "blacks aren't diverse enough" to move out of the inner cities.......
    Isaiah 6:5
    “Woe to me!” I cried. “I am ruined! For I am a man of unclean lips, and I live among a people of unclean lips, and my eyes have seen the King, the Lord Almighty.”

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    Quote Originally Posted by PostmodernProphet View Post
    I wonder if anything will happen between now and November......
    Trump will rush a vaccine to market. If he promises one by October, then he can stretch its effectiveness (or lack of it) to Election Day. People will get their shots and be told to give it 2-4 weeks. The upsurge in hope may cause Trump to take the lead in the polls. Then the body count starts rising again, it'll be too late; Trump will have been reelected.

    Good plan?
    God bless America and those who defend our Constitution.

    "Hatred is a failure of imagination" - Graham Greene, "The Power and the Glory"

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    Hello Dutch Uncle,

    Quote Originally Posted by Dutch Uncle View Post
    Excellent track record. I like his "13 keys".

    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/who-got...tag=YHF4eb9d17
    Lichtman says his 13 keys to predicting the results of the presidential election are simply ways of “mathematically and specifically” measuring that performance. They are: (1) incumbent-party mandate, (2) incumbency, (3) third party, (4) short-term economy, (5) long-term economy, (6) nomination contest, (7) policy change, (8) scandal, (9) social unrest, (10) foreign or military success, (11) foreign or military failure, (12) incumbent charisma, and (13) challenge charisma.
    Fascinating.
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    Hello Dutch Uncle,

    Quote Originally Posted by Dutch Uncle View Post
    Excellent track record. I like his "13 keys".

    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/who-got...tag=YHF4eb9d17
    Lichtman says his 13 keys to predicting the results of the presidential election are simply ways of “mathematically and specifically” measuring that performance. They are: (1) incumbent-party mandate, (2) incumbency, (3) third party, (4) short-term economy, (5) long-term economy, (6) nomination contest, (7) policy change, (8) scandal, (9) social unrest, (10) foreign or military success, (11) foreign or military failure, (12) incumbent charisma, and (13) challenge charisma.
    (14) Handling of a major crisis.
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    Hello Althea,

    Quote Originally Posted by Althea View Post
    I'd argue that they knew who trump was in '16, but voted for the lies about his policies and issues. I've always said that the market was way up under trump, but the economy was pretty steady for the last 10 years. trumpkins disagreed. Now we have a market that has recovered to a great extent, but the economy is in serious trouble. Not only because of Covid, but trump's foreign/trade policies. A perfect illustration of the difference between the market and the economy.


    If Covid didn't happen, and the economy continued along the path it was on, he would get re elected. Despite kids in cages. Despite his overtly racist pledges to 'protect the suburbs'.

    I think Gary Hart was the last candidate that suffered character issues. Perhaps Edwards a few years ago.
    Astute observations.

    The standard MO for a Republican campaign strategy is not to champion the pluses of their candidate but to trash the opposition.

    Now they have to deal with the fact that the reputation of their own candidate is trashed.
    Personal Ignore Policy PIP: I like civil discourse. I will give you all the respect in the world if you respect me. Mouth off to me, or express overt racism, you will be PERMANENTLY Ignore Listed. Zero tolerance. No exceptions. I'll never read a word you write, even if quoted by another, nor respond to you, nor participate in your threads. ... Ignore the shallow. Cherish the thoughtful. Long Live Civil Discourse, Mutual Respect, and Good Debate! ps: Feel free to adopt my PIP. It works well.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jack View Post
    Trump Virus.
    Trump Economy.
    Trump Social Unrest.

    Yeah, no shit.
    China virus.

    Trump economy improving...countries all over the world suffering due to the Chinese virus that China failed to control.

    The “unrest” (anarchy) is being committed by BLM and ANTIFA.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dutch Uncle View Post
    Possible, but it's more likely I'm going to lose a chunk of cash for betting on Trump. Trump was winning before the COVID crisis. Trump's bungling of the US response is what is going to cost him the election. RWers are screaming about "Hidin' Biden" but Biden is just playing it cool since all he has to do is let the body count tick up to 200,000 and watch Trump stick his own foot in his mouth daily.

    Maybe if Trump ordered a bottle of Hydroxychloroquine to every family in America he could get his numbers back up.

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...iden-6247.html


    Order from chaos.....

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    Quote Originally Posted by PoliTalker View Post
    Hello Althea,



    Astute observations.

    The standard MO for a Republican campaign strategy is not to champion the pluses of their candidate but to trash the opposition.

    Now they have to deal with the fact that the reputation of their own candidate is trashed.
    Republicans do love to promise tax cuts and anti abortion legislation. Aside from that, they concoct fear tactics aimed at increased military spending. They have no other platforms. They do indeed opt to attack the opposition, especially this Republican POTUS. McCain was a bit more of a statesman, but he let Palin play the moron before the public.
    Once in a while you get shown the light, in the strangest of places if you look at it right.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dutch Uncle View Post
    Possible, but it's more likely I'm going to lose a chunk of cash for betting on Trump. Trump was winning before the COVID crisis. Trump's bungling of the US response is what is going to cost him the election. RWers are screaming about "Hidin' Biden" but Biden is just playing it cool since all he has to do is let the body count tick up to 200,000 and watch Trump stick his own foot in his mouth daily.

    Maybe if Trump ordered a bottle of Hydroxychloroquine to every family in America he could get his numbers back up.

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...iden-6247.html


    Have you begun to wonder why his writers don't spell the tough words phonetically?

    He's a moron. Yo sem it tee would have helped. Also Tie land.

    This is embarrassing
    Once in a while you get shown the light, in the strangest of places if you look at it right.

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