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Thread: Poll: Biden leads Trump by 3 points nationally

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    Default Poll: Biden leads Trump by 3 points nationally

    If the 2020 Presidential election were held today, 43 percent of voters would vote for former Vice President Joe Biden while 40 percent would chose President Trump, a new Hill-HarrisX poll finds.

    https://thehill.com/hilltv/what-amer...nts-nationally

    Within the margin of error Dims

    Biden is toast!

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    Crickets

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    Trump is only at 40% in that poll. With that percentage of voters supporting him, Trump is toast.

    But to look at it critically:
    This poll is an outlier. The Hill tends to skew about 4 points compared to other polls taken in the same time period. Would you put your trust in a poll showing Biden with a 15 point lead that came out 2 weeks ago? That one is also an outlier.

    I would be careful with this poll since it has 17% undecided. In May, the Hill showed Trump only 1 point behind Biden with 17% undecided so this is actually worse for Trump and would imply he is doing worse over time. Or it could be that when you look at all the Hill polls, this one is simply showing the bottom range of the statistical variation. We see a range from 3 - 10 point Biden lead with the Hill in the last couple of months. 10 is likely the high end of the range and 3 is the low end and the 5-7 range is the middle. But both candidates have been in a 4-6 point range for support. Biden has been 41-47. Trump has been 37-41. With a 3 point margin of error 41 is the same as 47 and 37 is the same as 41.
    "We are all born ignorant, but one must work hard to remain stupid."

    "Any fool can criticize, condemn and complain - and most fools do."

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    President Trump is probably leading by 10 points, if the truth was known.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Poor Richard Saunders View Post
    Trump is only at 40% in that poll. With that percentage of voters supporting him, Trump is toast.

    But to look at it critically:
    This poll is an outlier. The Hill tends to skew about 4 points compared to other polls taken in the same time period. Would you put your trust in a poll showing Biden with a 15 point lead that came out 2 weeks ago? That one is also an outlier.

    I would be careful with this poll since it has 17% undecided. In May, the Hill showed Trump only 1 point behind Biden with 17% undecided so this is actually worse for Trump and would imply he is doing worse over time. Or it could be that when you look at all the Hill polls, this one is simply showing the bottom range of the statistical variation. We see a range from 3 - 10 point Biden lead with the Hill in the last couple of months. 10 is likely the high end of the range and 3 is the low end and the 5-7 range is the middle. But both candidates have been in a 4-6 point range for support. Biden has been 41-47. Trump has been 37-41. With a 3 point margin of error 41 is the same as 47 and 37 is the same as 41.
    Well, Poor Dick, Hillary had a 91% chance of winning the presidency. NYT’s

    Que Paso?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Stone View Post
    The president was magnanimous in victory.

    He did offer to buy Hillary’s celebratory fireworks...for 10 cents on the dollar.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Earl View Post
    The president was magnanimous in victory.

    He did offer to buy Hillary’s celebratory fireworks...for 10 cents on the dollar.
    I thought that was very nice of him. Sign of a good winner!

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    Hillary’s supporters were there all night and after losing, she was so un-gracious that she would not come out that night and speak to her supporters.She sent a stand in, a surrogate.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Poor Richard Saunders View Post
    Trump is only at 40% in that poll. With that percentage of voters supporting him, Trump is toast.

    But to look at it critically:
    This poll is an outlier. The Hill tends to skew about 4 points compared to other polls taken in the same time period. Would you put your trust in a poll showing Biden with a 15 point lead that came out 2 weeks ago? That one is also an outlier.

    I would be careful with this poll since it has 17% undecided. In May, the Hill showed Trump only 1 point behind Biden with 17% undecided so this is actually worse for Trump and would imply he is doing worse over time. Or it could be that when you look at all the Hill polls, this one is simply showing the bottom range of the statistical variation. We see a range from 3 - 10 point Biden lead with the Hill in the last couple of months. 10 is likely the high end of the range and 3 is the low end and the 5-7 range is the middle. But both candidates have been in a 4-6 point range for support. Biden has been 41-47. Trump has been 37-41. With a 3 point margin of error 41 is the same as 47 and 37 is the same as 41.
    Shut the fuck up Dick, you're truly snoring boring!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Stone View Post
    I thought that was very nice of him. Sign of a good winner!
    Indeed it was.

    It was a thoughtful thing to do.

    Her campaign lost all of the cost of the celebratory fireworks when they could have recouped 10%.

    How dumb is that?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Earl View Post
    Hillary’s supporters were there all night and after losing, she was so un-gracious that she would not come out that night and speak to her supporters.She sent a stand in.
    Yep. Rumor has it she was in no condition to come out. Half drunk and in an absolute fit of RAGE. Throwing a giant fit back stage, screaming, cussing, throwing and smashing things,.... she even gave old Bill a good slap across the kisser. She was REALLY a sight to see. Inconsolable. At one point she even passed out,.... Im told Bill had to wave a big roll of hundred dollar bills under her nose like smelling salts to get her to come to.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Poor Richard Saunders View Post
    Trump is only at 40% in that poll. With that percentage of voters supporting him, Trump is toast.

    But to look at it critically:
    This poll is an outlier. The Hill tends to skew about 4 points compared to other polls taken in the same time period. Would you put your trust in a poll showing Biden with a 15 point lead that came out 2 weeks ago? That one is also an outlier.

    I would be careful with this poll since it has 17% undecided. In May, the Hill showed Trump only 1 point behind Biden with 17% undecided so this is actually worse for Trump and would imply he is doing worse over time. Or it could be that when you look at all the Hill polls, this one is simply showing the bottom range of the statistical variation. We see a range from 3 - 10 point Biden lead with the Hill in the last couple of months. 10 is likely the high end of the range and 3 is the low end and the 5-7 range is the middle. But both candidates have been in a 4-6 point range for support. Biden has been 41-47. Trump has been 37-41. With a 3 point margin of error 41 is the same as 47 and 37 is the same as 41.
    I trust Fivethirtyeight and they give HarrisX a C+ rating. There are far better polls, but since it is a heavily leaning conservative poll, Trump polling low should indeed be a concern.

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