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Thread: The Electoral College fringe expands

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    Default The Electoral College fringe expands

    We are now about six weeks into a downturn in Donald Trump’s polling numbers.

    It’s worth thinking about the ramifications of this change if it endures.

    In the RealClearPolitics average of national approval polling, Trump went from about early December to late May without ever dipping below -10 in net approval (approval minus disapproval). He has spent every day since June 1 at or below -10 net approval, and he’s currently at about -15.

    Joe Biden’s national polling lead over Trump during May was in the four-to-six-point range. That was a decent lead, but not one that suggested Biden was a towering favorite, particularly because Trump was able to win in 2016 without winning the popular vote. But since early June, Biden’s lead has ballooned to the eight-to-10-point range. He has also enjoyed healthy leads in many polls of the most important swing states, like Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

    The bottom line here is that the nation is in a state of terrible crisis, and the public has, at least for now, judged the president’s responses to both coronavirus and protests of racial inequalities in policing to be lacking.

    In an ABC News/Ipsos poll released Friday, 67% of respondents disapproved of Trump’s handling of coronavirus and of race relations.

    2020 is shaping up to be a bad year in American history, which Republican lobbyist Bruce Mehlman illustrates in his latest look at the political environment. It is not the kind of year when one wants to be an incumbent running for reelection, and a majority of the public appears to believe that this president is not meeting the moment.

    A few weeks into the public health crisis, we explored the possibility of Trump being the second iteration of Jimmy Carter, whose reelection bid fell apart among myriad crises in 1980. Since then, the Trump-as-Carter scenario has grown even more plausible.

    There is time for the situation to change — as we wrote a few weeks ago, we want to see where things stand after the conventions, around Labor Day. But Trump is extremely unlikely to win if the polls continue to look the way they do now. And if these numbers represent a new normal, we need to account for the possibility that this election won’t be particularly close, and that new states may come into play. In other words, if the national picture remains bleak for Trump, then the slippage he’s seen from earlier this year wouldn’t just be limited to a handful of swing states

    http://centerforpolitics.org/crystal...e-map-expands/

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    I predict that the (R)s are going to take a major shellacking this November. If you get your opinions on that strictly from the RWers here you might think that #TRE45ON's base is still loyal. You would be wrong. Just the fact that he can't get more than a handful of the formerly faithful to show up at his love-me-long-time-please rallies tells you a lot.
    "Conservatism is the blind and fear-filled worship of dead radicals." -- Mark Twain

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    Repealing the popular vote, and letting the POTUS be selected by the college alone would be a good step forward.

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    The Russian system??

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    Quote Originally Posted by MarcusA View Post
    Repealing the popular vote, and letting the POTUS be selected by the college alone would be a good step forward.
    Isn't that the way it is done now, the electoral college, not popular vote, elects the President

    It is water under the bridge, ain't changing any time soon, but it is an antiquated system, when a State like Wyoming gets three electoral votes representing less than a million people it isn't right, and nothing the Founding Fathers said or intended justify that inequality

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    Quote Originally Posted by floridafan View Post
    We are now about six weeks into a downturn in Donald Trump’s polling numbers.

    It’s worth thinking about the ramifications of this change if it endures.

    In the RealClearPolitics average of national approval polling, Trump went from about early December to late May without ever dipping below -10 in net approval (approval minus disapproval). He has spent every day since June 1 at or below -10 net approval, and he’s currently at about -15.

    Joe Biden’s national polling lead over Trump during May was in the four-to-six-point range. That was a decent lead, but not one that suggested Biden was a towering favorite, particularly because Trump was able to win in 2016 without winning the popular vote. But since early June, Biden’s lead has ballooned to the eight-to-10-point range. He has also enjoyed healthy leads in many polls of the most important swing states, like Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

    The bottom line here is that the nation is in a state of terrible crisis, and the public has, at least for now, judged the president’s responses to both coronavirus and protests of racial inequalities in policing to be lacking.

    In an ABC News/Ipsos poll released Friday, 67% of respondents disapproved of Trump’s handling of coronavirus and of race relations.

    2020 is shaping up to be a bad year in American history, which Republican lobbyist Bruce Mehlman illustrates in his latest look at the political environment. It is not the kind of year when one wants to be an incumbent running for reelection, and a majority of the public appears to believe that this president is not meeting the moment.

    A few weeks into the public health crisis, we explored the possibility of Trump being the second iteration of Jimmy Carter, whose reelection bid fell apart among myriad crises in 1980. Since then, the Trump-as-Carter scenario has grown even more plausible.

    There is time for the situation to change — as we wrote a few weeks ago, we want to see where things stand after the conventions, around Labor Day. But Trump is extremely unlikely to win if the polls continue to look the way they do now. And if these numbers represent a new normal, we need to account for the possibility that this election won’t be particularly close, and that new states may come into play. In other words, if the national picture remains bleak for Trump, then the slippage he’s seen from earlier this year wouldn’t just be limited to a handful of swing states

    http://centerforpolitics.org/crystal...e-map-expands/
    Guarantee come late October the polls are all going to tighten up and it will be a close race, polls four months out are meaningless, espcially in the 24/7 cable infotainment agenda

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    Quote Originally Posted by archives View Post
    Guarantee come late October the polls are all going to tighten up and it will be a close race, polls four months out are meaningless, espcially in the 24/7 cable infotainment agenda
    A lot depends on this virus.

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    Quote Originally Posted by archives View Post
    Isn't that the way it is done now, the electoral college, not popular vote, elects the President

    It is water under the bridge, ain't changing any time soon, but it is an antiquated system, when a State like Wyoming gets three electoral votes representing less than a million people it isn't right, and nothing the Founding Fathers said or intended justify that inequality
    Sure, but just eliminate the popular vote and allow the college to decide the elections.

    The bare minimum standards of literacy have sunk too low, to the point that it enables many people to vote who shouldn't be voting to begin with.

    If we eliminated the popular vote, it might ensure that only the Republican party has any chance of getting elected for the foreseeable future - The Republican party could be come the new "centrist" or "center-left" party, and a truly right-wing nationalist party could take its place (with the Democrat party relegated to the status of "crazy party", or "protest vote bucket).

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    Quote Originally Posted by MarcusA View Post
    Repealing the popular vote, and letting the POTUS be selected by the college alone would be a good step forward.
    That would be an oligarchy working for the 1%.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Phantasmal View Post
    A lot depends on this virus.
    Virus is not disappearing in four months, but regardless of events, few elections in recent time have been as one sided as some feel this one will be, come election day, it will be a close election

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    Quote Originally Posted by MarcusA View Post
    Sure, but just eliminate the popular vote and allow the college to decide the elections.

    The bare minimum standards of literacy have sunk too low, to the point that it enables many people to vote who shouldn't be voting to begin with.

    If we eliminated the popular vote, it might ensure that only the Republican party has any chance of getting elected for the foreseeable future - The Republican party could be come the new "centrist" or "center-left" party, and a truly right-wing nationalist party could take its place (with the Democrat party relegated to the status of "crazy party", or "protest vote bucket).
    And how do we elect the college?

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    Quote Originally Posted by StoneByStone View Post
    That would be an oligarchy working for the 1%.
    So you say...

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    Quote Originally Posted by MarcusA View Post
    So you say...
    Why would they bother working for the people? The presidents could completely ignore the masses and still get reelected if the 1% likes them.
    The point of Democracy is basically to force the government to work for the people.

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    Quote Originally Posted by StoneByStone View Post
    Why would they bother working for the people? The presidents could completely ignore the masses and still get reelected if the 1% likes them.
    The point of Democracy is basically to force the government to work for the people.
    The US isn't a "democracy" and never was intended to be, nor the governments of the UK or other Western European nations.

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    Quote Originally Posted by MarcusA View Post
    The US isn't a "democracy" and never was intended to be, nor the governments of the UK or other Western European nations.
    It has elections, so it's a Democracy.

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