Cancel 2020.2 (07-14-2020), Earl (07-14-2020), Grokmaster (07-14-2020)
So all those Conservatives who have shifted goalposts now to the "herd immunity" talking point are in for a wild surprise, according to the GOP governor of MS:
"Let’s talk about herd immunity. I’ve listened to some people argue that the rapid spread of cases is a good thing, and we need to reach herd immunity in Mississippi and elsewhere to survive. I’m not a health care expert by any means, but I am a math guy. And I have thoughts:
The experts say we need 70-80% of the population to get COVID-19 to achieve herd immunity. Let’s assume they’re wrong (it’s certainly possible, they have been before.) Let’s assume they’re being way overly cautious and we actually only need 40% infection for herd immunity.
In Mississippi, our population is 3 million. We’ve had 36,680 cases so far. We’d need 1.2 MILLION infections to achieve that hypothetical 40% threshold. (Remember, experts say it’s double that.)
Over the last two weeks, our hospital system has started to become stressed to the point of pain. We are seeing the early signs and effects of it becoming overwhelmed. We had to suspend elective surgeries again.
On our worst day of new cases, we had just over 1,000. It has typically been between 700-900 during this most aggressive time. To get to 40% infections, we’d need 3,187 new cases every day for a full year from today. We would need to TRIPLE our worst day—every day—for a year.
I’m not one of these guys that immediately dismisses any idea that challenges the expert status quo talking points. I’m pretty skeptical by nature. That’s healthy. But herd immunity is not anything like a realistic solution in the short or mid-term. I wish it was.
Unless you’re willing to go without hospitals after a car wreck or heart attack, we need a different approach. Right now, despite mixed messages at the beginning, it seems like masks are the best bet. They’re a hell of a lot better than widespread shut downs. Please wear one!"
When I die, turn me into a brick and use me to cave in the skull of a fascist
Cancel 2020.2 (07-14-2020), Earl (07-14-2020), Grokmaster (07-14-2020)
Coffiend (07-14-2020), Cypress (07-14-2020), domer76 (07-14-2020), Guno צְבִי (07-14-2020), Phantasmal (07-14-2020), tff (07-14-2020), ThatOwlWoman (07-14-2020), Trumpet (07-14-2020)
After running cover for Trump for four months, it's weird that Republicans are now belatedly begging people to wear masks and take this pandemic seriously.
Last I checked in with rightwing blogs, this virus was no worse than the common cold and would probably dissapear like a miracle by April.
domer76 (07-14-2020), Guno צְבִי (07-14-2020), Jerome (07-14-2020), LV426 (07-14-2020), Phantasmal (07-14-2020), tff (07-14-2020)
The proponents of herd immunity will have to consider that to achieve this immunity they will have to sacrifice human lives, and the lives that are lost could just be them and or their family members. So to me, the idea of herd immunity is more of a distraction and deflection tactic for political gain.
Last edited by Trumpet; 07-14-2020 at 09:18 AM.
Guno צְבִי (07-14-2020), LV426 (07-14-2020)
Glad to hear a governor down there is not parroting Trump. I guess when you actually have to deal with problems, you get the answers right.
Meanwhile where will Trump golf today?
Althea (07-14-2020), Guno צְבִי (07-14-2020), LV426 (07-14-2020)
Guno צְבִי (07-14-2020), Phantasmal (07-14-2020)
I’ll give a clue: the glaring error is an assumption.
Coup has started. First of many steps. Impeachment will follow ultimately~WB attorney Mark Zaid, January 2017
Guno צְבִי (07-14-2020), Jerome (07-14-2020)
Cancel 2020.2 (07-14-2020)
Guno צְבִי (07-14-2020)
He is assuming case numbers are an accurate reflection of how many individuals in the population have had COVID.
I don’t know of a single seroprevalence study that doesn’t conclude that the number of people with COVID antibodies exceeds the number of cases by a significant factor.
Go low and say it’s only a factor of X3. Multiply the number of cases picked up by swab tests X3 and you have a more accurate estimate of how many people in the population may be immune to COVID.
Go high, and it’s start to get interesting pretty quick. In fact, it’s entirely plausible that NYC has gone quiet because they are approaching herd immunity. Same with Sweden. Sweden was supposed to be a basket case by now, remember?
Well, their numbers have dropped off dramatically. It’s likely Sweden paid a hefty cost but they made it to herd immunity. I’ve been bitching for months about serum antibody testing. If we can get the same degree of caterwauling over antibody testing as we do masks and swab tests we might get an idea of how far we have to go.
Coup has started. First of many steps. Impeachment will follow ultimately~WB attorney Mark Zaid, January 2017
Cancel 2020.2 (07-14-2020), dukkha (07-14-2020)
Guno צְבִי (07-14-2020), LV426 (07-14-2020)
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