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Thread: Tough election math for Trump: his base is shrinking

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    Default Tough election math for Trump: his base is shrinking

    The problem, from an electoral standpoint, is that this base—which generally skews 1) older, 2) white, 3) male, 4) rural and 5) less educated—continues to shrink and runs counter to an America that is going in the opposite direction.


    A look at changing demographics in key swing states reflects Trump’s problem.

    For example, Trump won Michigan (16 electoral votes) by just 10,704 votes. Since then, and based on data from four separate organizations that was crunched by The Wall Street Journal, the percentage of the projected 2020 electorate has declined by 2.0 points among whites without a college degree (a key Trump constituency), while growing 0.7% for whites with a degree, 0.2% for Blacks, and 0.5% for Hispanics. These are small changes, but given Trump’s razor-thin 2016 margin and an unemployment rate that has quadrupled on his watch to 21.2% (May), it isn’t exactly a stretch to say the president is in trouble there.

    It is a similar story in other swing states. The percentage of the projected white nondegree electorate has shrunk by 2.8% in Arizona, 2.3% in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, 2.2% in North Carolina and 2.1% in Florida—while all the other groups have grown. These six states account for 101 electoral votes.


    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/op...ng-11594250191
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    Quote Originally Posted by guno View Post
    The problem, from an electoral standpoint, is that this base—which generally skews 1) older, 2) white, 3) male, 4) rural and 5) less educated—continues to shrink and runs counter to an America that is going in the opposite direction.


    A look at changing demographics in key swing states reflects Trump’s problem.

    For example, Trump won Michigan (16 electoral votes) by just 10,704 votes. Since then, and based on data from four separate organizations that was crunched by The Wall Street Journal, the percentage of the projected 2020 electorate has declined by 2.0 points among whites without a college degree (a key Trump constituency), while growing 0.7% for whites with a degree, 0.2% for Blacks, and 0.5% for Hispanics. These are small changes, but given Trump’s razor-thin 2016 margin and an unemployment rate that has quadrupled on his watch to 21.2% (May), it isn’t exactly a stretch to say the president is in trouble there.

    It is a similar story in other swing states. The percentage of the projected white nondegree electorate has shrunk by 2.8% in Arizona, 2.3% in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, 2.2% in North Carolina and 2.1% in Florida—while all the other groups have grown. These six states account for 101 electoral votes.


    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/op...ng-11594250191

    People in MI may be racist but the recent event of a white woman pulling a gun on black woman made national news. Most Americans do not want blacks to be threatened.

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    Quote Originally Posted by guno View Post
    The problem, from an electoral standpoint, is that this base—which generally skews 1) older, 2) white, 3) male, 4) rural and 5) less educated—continues to shrink and runs counter to an America that is going in the opposite direction.


    A look at changing demographics in key swing states reflects Trump’s problem.

    For example, Trump won Michigan (16 electoral votes) by just 10,704 votes. Since then, and based on data from four separate organizations that was crunched by The Wall Street Journal, the percentage of the projected 2020 electorate has declined by 2.0 points among whites without a college degree (a key Trump constituency), while growing 0.7% for whites with a degree, 0.2% for Blacks, and 0.5% for Hispanics. These are small changes, but given Trump’s razor-thin 2016 margin and an unemployment rate that has quadrupled on his watch to 21.2% (May), it isn’t exactly a stretch to say the president is in trouble there.

    It is a similar story in other swing states. The percentage of the projected white nondegree electorate has shrunk by 2.8% in Arizona, 2.3% in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, 2.2% in North Carolina and 2.1% in Florida—while all the other groups have grown. These six states account for 101 electoral votes.


    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/op...ng-11594250191
    reminds me of the math used in 2016 that worked out so well,,,

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    Quote Originally Posted by blades View Post
    reminds me of the math used in 2016 that worked out so well,,,
    Biden did not run in 2016. And we know how horrible Trump is.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jacksonsprat22 View Post
    Biden did not run in 2016. And we know how horrible Trump is.
    I was talking about the math not biden,,,

    and we knew how horrible trump was in 2016,,,thats why I didnt vote for him

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    Quote Originally Posted by blades View Post
    I was talking about the math not biden,,,

    and we knew how horrible trump was in 2016,,,thats why I didnt vote for him
    So...fizzle

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    and the Mar a Lago virus is killing 700 of his own voters every single day!

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    Trump can con some of the people sometimes, but not all the time.

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    Quote Originally Posted by guno View Post
    The problem, from an electoral standpoint, is that this base—which generally skews 1) older, 2) white, 3) male, 4) rural and 5) less educated—continues to shrink and runs counter to an America that is going in the opposite direction.


    A look at changing demographics in key swing states reflects Trump’s problem.

    For example, Trump won Michigan (16 electoral votes) by just 10,704 votes. Since then, and based on data from four separate organizations that was crunched by The Wall Street Journal, the percentage of the projected 2020 electorate has declined by 2.0 points among whites without a college degree (a key Trump constituency), while growing 0.7% for whites with a degree, 0.2% for Blacks, and 0.5% for Hispanics. These are small changes, but given Trump’s razor-thin 2016 margin and an unemployment rate that has quadrupled on his watch to 21.2% (May), it isn’t exactly a stretch to say the president is in trouble there.

    It is a similar story in other swing states. The percentage of the projected white nondegree electorate has shrunk by 2.8% in Arizona, 2.3% in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, 2.2% in North Carolina and 2.1% in Florida—while all the other groups have grown. These six states account for 101 electoral votes.


    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/op...ng-11594250191
    I think the gop has an answer for this, selective voter suppression: suppression in those areas where ppl tend to vote the wrong way.

    Those selfish ppl put their own interests before trumps & frankly don't deserve a vote. The folks in the good areas, real wholesome Americans will represent this country & it's valuers.
    "There is no question former President Trump bears moral responsibility. His supporters stormed the Capitol because of the unhinged falsehoods he shouted into the world’s largest megaphone," McConnell wrote. "His behavior during and after the chaos was also unconscionable, from attacking Vice President Mike Pence during the riot to praising the criminals after it ended."



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    Quote Originally Posted by blades View Post
    I was talking about the math not biden,,,

    and we knew how horrible trump was in 2016,,,thats why I didnt vote for him
    Has he been as bad as expected??
    "There is no question former President Trump bears moral responsibility. His supporters stormed the Capitol because of the unhinged falsehoods he shouted into the world’s largest megaphone," McConnell wrote. "His behavior during and after the chaos was also unconscionable, from attacking Vice President Mike Pence during the riot to praising the criminals after it ended."



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    Quote Originally Posted by Micawber View Post
    and the Mar a Lago virus is killing 700 of his own voters every single day!
    That won't prevent them from voting in many places in the south.
    "There is no question former President Trump bears moral responsibility. His supporters stormed the Capitol because of the unhinged falsehoods he shouted into the world’s largest megaphone," McConnell wrote. "His behavior during and after the chaos was also unconscionable, from attacking Vice President Mike Pence during the riot to praising the criminals after it ended."



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    Quote Originally Posted by blades View Post
    reminds me of the math used in 2016 that worked out so well,,,

    exactly, Clinton beat the pussy grabbers ass in popular votes

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    last I heard Republicans are out-registering Dems. that's an outlier,but the "base" is there and enthusiastic

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    WAIT UNTIL JOEFERATU COOMES OUT OF THE COFFIN...AND HAS TO STAND< ON HIS OWN, DEBATING DJT.
    TRUMP WILL TAKE FORTY STATES...UNLESS THE SAME IDIOTS WHO BROUGHT US THE 2020 DUNCE-O-CRAT IOWA CLUSTERFUCK CONTINUE THEIR SEDITIOUS ACTIVITIES...THEN HE WILL WIN EVEN MORE ..UNLESS THE RED CHINESE AND DNC COLLUDE, USE A PANDEMIC, AND THEN THE DEMOCRATS VIOLATE ARTICLE II OF THE CONSTITUTION, TO FACILLITATE MILLIONS OF ILLEGAL, UNVETTED, MAIL IN BALLOTS IN THE DARK OF NIGHT..


    De Oppresso Liber

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    I vividly remember the election "math" showing HRC was a hands down winner. How did that work out?

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