Reply With QuotePhantasmal (07-01-2020)
Senior Member
JPP Contributor
Trump's drive to Victory 2020 is stalling and about to crash
Current projections and polling are showing it to be more and more difficult for Trump to win this year.
This thread is to document the slow process that will be Trump's wreck of his campaign to go with the wreck he has made of the country.
The current 270towin map shows 5 tossup states. Trump needs to win more of them than Biden.
If Biden wins Florida or any combination of 2 of the other states he wins the Presidency.
The problem Trump has is he is currently trailing in polls in all 5 of those states. It's possible for some of the polls to be wrong but not likely that every poll in all 5 states have been consistently wrong.
Economists are predicting the economy won't get back to 2019 levels for 2 years. We will likely still have double digit or high single digit unemployment in November. Trump can spout off about how great the markets are doing all he wants. If people are unemployed or underemployed they will take it out on the President just like any other election.
Unless Trump can bring some states back into play or start polling better in the tossup states, he has no path to victory. It is looking more and more like he is headed to a major loss. Perhaps the biggest loss ever for an incumbent President since Carter. With the possibility we could see the worst loss by a Presidential candidate since McGovern if things don't turn around for Trump. His 2/3 empty Tulsa stadium may seem crowded the way things are going.
https://www.270towin.com/
"We are all born ignorant, but one must work hard to remain stupid."
"Any fool can criticize, condemn and complain - and most fools do."
Phantasmal (07-01-2020)
Senior Member
JPP Contributor
CNBC released polling today for all 5 of the tossup states plus Michigan.
Biden is leading by at least 5 points in all of them and has hit the magic number of 50% or more in 5 out of the 6. 50% usually means minds are made up and there aren't many undecided voters to swing to the other candidate. At this point in 2016 Clinton was leading Trump but she was polling about 44-46%. It was the undecided that did her in. Trump isn't an unknown at this point.
Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D) Biden 50, Trump 44 Biden +6
Michigan: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D) Biden 48, Trump 43 Biden +5
Wisconsin: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D) Biden 51, Trump 43 Biden +8
North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D) Biden 51, Trump 44 Biden +7
Florida: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D) Biden 50, Trump 45 Biden +5
Arizona: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D) Biden 51, Trump 44 Biden +7
"We are all born ignorant, but one must work hard to remain stupid."
"Any fool can criticize, condemn and complain - and most fools do."
Phantasmal (07-01-2020)
Senior Member
JPP Contributor
270towin has a map showing the current betting on PredictIt by state for the 2020 election.
People that are willing to put money down are predicting Biden will win the electoral college 334-204.
https://www.270towin.com/maps/predic...-election-odds
"We are all born ignorant, but one must work hard to remain stupid."
"Any fool can criticize, condemn and complain - and most fools do."
Phantasmal (07-10-2020)
Verified User
Trump was ghastly lucky in 2016. He won the industrial states by extremely narrow margins. Michigan was won by a vote per precinct. Trump is such an immature dick, and a crook, that he is narrowing his base. Polling shows the damage he has done politically. He has to industrialized cheating now. Voter repression will be done on an unheard-of scale. The shocker is the Repub repression has not been tailored to mail-in. That is why they are panicking and claiming that it is corrupt. There is no evidence of that. But the creative writers in the Repub party and working hard.
Verified User
Ya ... and Hillary will win in a landslide !
Eat shit !
Verified User
She won by exactly the margins predicted. Enjoy your shit.Originally Posted by Loving91390
Verified User
Means nothing four months out, with the 24/7 infotainment cable networks, anything is possible, especially considering Trump isn’t restrained by ethical, traditional or legal restraints
Verified User
And Trump won!!! Enjoy your shit !
Verified User
Trump cancelled the New Hampshire rally because it was going to be another nearly empty hall. Trump's love, of crammed halls screaming loudly building his ego, are gone. His best shot is the Red convention in Jackson, but Corona is crippling the state. Trump will gladly risk the lives of the attendees. They do not matter to him. He is certain he will get the yells and cheers he childishly craves. Will the delegates follow his orders? Show up, scream and do not wear masks.
Senior Member
JPP Contributor
Since June when I started this thread, Trump certainly hasn't made any gains. This is the latest consensus map from 270towin that shows Trump losing.
"We are all born ignorant, but one must work hard to remain stupid."
"Any fool can criticize, condemn and complain - and most fools do."
Verified User
How many fucking times do you assholes need to hear that polls aren't elections? This makes you feel better doesn't it? It's like the peanuts character with the blanket. It's comforting to pretend Biden is president. Isn't that right Linus? Of course it's fucking right! You fucking pussies will explode when trump wins AGAIN.Current projections and polling are showing it to be more and more difficult for Trump to win this year.
This thread is to document the slow process that will be Trump's wreck of his campaign to go with the wreck he has made of the country.
The current 270towin map shows 5 tossup states. Trump needs to win more of them than Biden.
If Biden wins Florida or any combination of 2 of the other states he wins the Presidency.
The problem Trump has is he is currently trailing in polls in all 5 of those states. It's possible for some of the polls to be wrong but not likely that every poll in all 5 states have been consistently wrong.
Economists are predicting the economy won't get back to 2019 levels for 2 years. We will likely still have double digit or high single digit unemployment in November. Trump can spout off about how great the markets are doing all he wants. If people are unemployed or underemployed they will take it out on the President just like any other election.
Unless Trump can bring some states back into play or start polling better in the tossup states, he has no path to victory. It is looking more and more like he is headed to a major loss. Perhaps the biggest loss ever for an incumbent President since Carter. With the possibility we could see the worst loss by a Presidential candidate since McGovern if things don't turn around for Trump. His 2/3 empty Tulsa stadium may seem crowded the way things are going.
https://www.270towin.com/
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