Can Trump win Florida?

[Poor Richard Saunders]

Let's face facts here. Florida is a must win state for Trump. If he loses Florida he has to win every other state currently considered a tossup, MI, PA, NC, WI, AZ. Considering he is currently down in the polling by about 6 points in MI and PA, the chances of him winning both of those states is not likely which means he really needs to win Florida. But what are his chances?

Currently Biden is polling with a 3 point lead in Florida. That is just the current period of time when Trump is looking bad for his leadership during the pandemic. If things turn around and jobs come back and the economy is roaring again in October that could change so I don't put much stock in the current polling.

But there are a couple of other things to consider. Trump only beat Clinton by 113,000 votes in 2016. At the same time Jill Stein got 67,000 votes and Gary Johnson got 207,000 votes. The potential voters in Florida have been increased by over a million voters as felons have been given back the right to vote in Florida after the voters passed a constitutional amendment. The court ruling over the weekend has essentially said Florida can't prevent those people from voting without violating the US Constitution. The amendment to the Florida Constitution means the state legislature can't pass legislation to prevent them from voting. After the Republican legislature and governor have done everything they can to prevent those felons from getting their voting rights back those new voters certainly have no reason to support a Republican candidate.

In past Presidential elections 72-75% of Florida's eligible voters have turned out to vote. If we assume everyone in Florida votes the same as last time and then add in the newly restored voters, it becomes hard for Trump to win the election in Florida. Even if 40% of those restored voters are willing to vote for a Republican there only needs to be a 60% turnout amongst them for Trump to lose Florida. If they turn out in the same percentages as the general population it only becomes harder for Trump. If they vote overwhelming against Republicans and have a large turnout Trump may lose Florida by over a million votes.

At this point I would say any future polling in Florida will be suspect since we don't know about those new voters, how they will turn out and if they are included in any currrent or future polling or if the pollsters are relying on previous voting patterns to adjust polls. No matter how you look at it, I suspect Trump will need to be leading by 4-5 points in polls to have a chance to win Florida. That currently isn't the case and only time will tell if he can come back from his current deficit.

[archives]

Five months out anybody can win anything

An interesting side note, in Florida, with all the OBG's, mail in voting would benefit the GOP, yet Trump insists it shouldn't be allowed, although most view this as just a set up to delegitimize the election if he loses

[Daddyo]

Five months out anybody can win anything

An interesting side note, in Florida, with all the OBG's, mail in voting would benefit the GOP, yet Trump insists it shouldn't be allowed, although most view this as just a set up to delegitimize the election if he loses

Look at Florida's history of questionable voting activity. It seems that with every election there is a few heavy Democrat precincts that have issue. From not allowing republican poll watchers to watch counts to finding and counting boxes of ballots in trunks of cars. Corruption is rampant in those precincts already.

[Tacomaman]

Lmao. More ficticious voter fraud "psychobabble" from a trumpanzee that is getting more uncomfortable with each passing week.....lol

[Bill]

Well the deep state & Coumo are sending down the troops from the most highly infected place in the country, one car load @ a time to help out...

cough, cough!!!

[Tacomaman]

Well the deep state & Coumo are sending down the troops from the most highly infected place in the country, one car load @ a time to help out...

cough, cough!!!

Maybe tRump can form another voter fraud commission to once again find no evidence of 3 million illegal voters....lol

Yes, tRump won the election via the EC, but it must eat at his juvenile insecure ass that he lost the popular vote to Hillary.....lol

[jimmymccready]

Mail in voting in FL would help Trump, yes.

It's a toss up right now.

[Tacomaman]

Mail in voting in FL would help Trump, yes.

It's a toss up right now.

Hard to know for sure. If tRumps tax returns are released, he likely loses in a lanslide.

[Bill]

Maybe tRump can form another voter fraud commission to once again find no evidence of 3 million illegal voters....lol

Yes, tRump won the election via the EC, but it must eat at his juvenile insecure ass that he lost the popular vote to Hillary.....lol

The deep state is hiding them in hillary's pizza parlor, but don't tell no body!!!!

[Walt]

Let's face facts here. Florida is a must win state for Trump. If he loses Florida he has to win every other state currently considered a tossup, MI, PA, NC, WI, AZ. Considering he is currently down in the polling by about 6 points in MI and PA, the chances of him winning both of those states is not likely which means he really needs to win Florida. But what are his chances?

Currently Biden is polling with a 3 point lead in Florida. That is just the current period of time when Trump is looking bad for his leadership during the pandemic. If things turn around and jobs come back and the economy is roaring again in October that could change so I don't put much stock in the current polling.

But there are a couple of other things to consider. Trump only beat Clinton by 113,000 votes in 2016. At the same time Jill Stein got 67,000 votes and Gary Johnson got 207,000 votes. The potential voters in Florida have been increased by over a million voters as felons have been given back the right to vote in Florida after the voters passed a constitutional amendment. The court ruling over the weekend has essentially said Florida can't prevent those people from voting without violating the US Constitution. The amendment to the Florida Constitution means the state legislature can't pass legislation to prevent them from voting. After the Republican legislature and governor have done everything they can to prevent those felons from getting their voting rights back those new voters certainly have no reason to support a Republican candidate.

In past Presidential elections 72-75% of Florida's eligible voters have turned out to vote. If we assume everyone in Florida votes the same as last time and then add in the newly restored voters, it becomes hard for Trump to win the election in Florida. Even if 40% of those restored voters are willing to vote for a Republican there only needs to be a 60% turnout amongst them for Trump to lose Florida. If they turn out in the same percentages as the general population it only becomes harder for Trump. If they vote overwhelming against Republicans and have a large turnout Trump may lose Florida by over a million votes.

At this point I would say any future polling in Florida will be suspect since we don't know about those new voters, how they will turn out and if they are included in any currrent or future polling or if the pollsters are relying on previous voting patterns to adjust polls. No matter how you look at it, I suspect Trump will need to be leading by 4-5 points in polls to have a chance to win Florida. That currently isn't the case and only time will tell if he can come back from his current deficit.

Don't forget the hundreds of thousands of Puerto Ricans who have moved to Florida.

Also I am assuming tens of thousands of Florida trump voters will die from Covid-19 between now and the election.

[Bill]

Mail in voting in FL would help Trump, yes.

It's a toss up right now.

That is why there hasn't been a big stink before, it helps & hurts both parties... It is just another issue for the attention whore playing president & gawd to divide the nation.

Sadly nothing is enough, he will never be satisfied w/ the extremely high levels of division...........

He feeds off the animosity & hate.......

[Concart]

Look at Florida's history of questionable voting activity. It seems that with every election there is a few heavy Democrat precincts that have issue. From not allowing republican poll watchers to watch counts to finding and counting boxes of ballots in trunks of cars. Corruption is rampant in those precincts already.

Bullshit. There has never been an incident of poll watchers not being allowed to WATCH. There have certainly been instances in which Republicans harassed voters. I'm sure that's what you're referring to. Guess what? That's illegal, so you won't get to do it this time either.

[jimmymccready]

The GOP always harasses Dem voters in FL.

[Tacomaman]

Bullshit. There has never been an incident of poll watchers not being allowed to WATCH. There have certainly been instances in which Republicans harassed voters. I'm sure that's what you're referring to. Guess what? That's illegal, so you won't get to do it this time either.

Infatuated trumpanzees cry like babies over possible voter fraud, but have no issue with gerrymandering. Outside of Klansmen, trumpstyle CONJOBservatives may be the most unamerican lot we have ever known. They only care about the Constitution when it benefits their own selfish agenda.

[Walt]

Look at Florida's history of questionable voting activity. It seems that with every election there is a few heavy Democrat precincts that have issue. From not allowing republican poll watchers to watch counts to finding and counting boxes of ballots in trunks of cars. Corruption is rampant in those precincts already.

In 2000, Republicans accidentally did not put serial numbers on some absentee ballots, and after the fact serial numbers on... Without any Democrats in the room, and somehow lost over a hundred ballots.... Thereby changing the results of the election. They also removed thousands of Democrats from the election rolls, illegally, and only Democrats.

There were a whole bunch of court cases about it, and Bush's lawyers actually made the argument that we could not prove that Republicans cheated for Republicans, they may have cheated for anyone?