CDC's New 'Best Estimate' Implies a COVID-19 Infection Fatality Rate Below 0.3%

[Concart]

same source we are using.......you are quoting the infection fatality rate.......we are quoting the number from the next paragraph, which is the mortality rate......different things, not a question of margin of error........

No, the number that is being discussed in this thread is the Infection Fatality Rate. Which is the percentage of infected people that die. The mortality rate has no relationship to that number at all. Mortality rate is the number of people who die per 100,000 population. That includes people who have not yet been infected, so the number is meaningless until the pandemic is over.

[Poor Richard Saunders]

The .3% number is clearly shown to be wrong by facts on the ground unless someone can explain how those living in NYC are much more likely to die than elsewhere.
Mortality is deaths divided by population.

Location .. deaths .. Population ... Mortality
Queens ......6,158 ... 2,273,000 ... 0.27%
Brooklyn .....6,628 ... 2,533,000 ... 0.26%
Bronx .........4,403 ... 1,418,000 ...0.31%

For the infection mortality rate to remain below .3% (and barely below) we would have to assume every last person in those 3 boroughs has been infected. That is highly unlikely since the testing there has only shown 27% of those tested to have been infected.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/new-york/

[PostmodernProphet]

so the number is meaningless until the pandemic is over.

no.....it is not.....it becomes relevant once the crisis is past, as this one is.......

[Centerleftfl]

Hello, if it goes on for a couple of years it might make it. Ain't looking good now. In fact geniuses, you can use a rough calculation of how many cases over what period to get under even 1% using my signature. The ONLY way is if it dropped like rock TODAY. Seen the month's curve? Glaciers are going down faster.

[Centerleftfl]

The .3% number is clearly shown to be wrong by facts on the ground unless someone can explain how those living in NYC are much more likely to die than elsewhere.
Mortality is deaths divided by population.

Location .. deaths .. Population ... Mortality
Queens ......6,158 ... 2,273,000 ... 0.27%
Brooklyn .....6,628 ... 2,533,000 ... 0.26%
Bronx .........4,403 ... 1,418,000 ...0.31%

For the infection mortality rate to remain below .3% (and barely below) we would have to assume every last person in those 3 boroughs has been infected. That is highly unlikely since the testing there has only shown 27% of those tested to have been infected.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/new-york/

And let's not forget emerging clusters that haven't peaked yet.

[Nordberg]

Is this estimate the same as 6 percent John Hopkins arrived at?https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality

[domer76]

we already have.....the CDC figures are in the OP......the worldmeters numbers are here.....

https://www.worldometers.info/corona...us-death-rate/

your numbers are neither the infection fatality rate or the mortality rate.....in truth, they are just you picking two random numbers and dividing one by the other......

100,000 dead, stupid motherfucker.

Where are your numbers, ignorant fuck? Oh, that’s right, you have none.

[RB 60]

Try this, cuntwhistle.

Write the CDC and Worldometer and give them your learned opinion. I’m sure they’ll give it all the attention it deserves.

Until then, and when you come up with better numbers, shut the fuck up.

Poor little dickhead. You can't refute the fact that there were those who had the China virus and weren't tested or hospitalized, therefore, how can those numbers be accurate?

[PostmodernProphet]

100,000 dead, stupid motherfucker.

Where are your numbers, ignorant fuck? Oh, that’s right, you have none.

sort of a stupid thing to say given that I have given you numbers in every post......but then, I forgot......you aren't posting, you're just being a basketball.....

[Concart]

no.....it is not.....it becomes relevant once the crisis is past, as this one is.......

LOL at you. No it hasn't. But if you are stupid enough to believe it has, I wish you good luck. You'll need it.

[Poor Richard Saunders]

LOL at you. No it hasn't. But if you are stupid enough to believe it has, I wish you good luck. You'll need it.

PMP is just trolling you at this point. To claim you picked random numbers when you used numbers published by a source proves he is not providing thoughtful commentary but just trolling.

[Concart]

PMP is just trolling you at this point. To claim you picked random numbers when you used numbers published by a source proves he is not providing thoughtful commentary but just trolling.

This is correct. There is confusion among the cultists about what the mortality rate means versus what the infection fatality rate means. And they are of course hopelessly dishonest about it. There is only one number that's being discussed in this thread, and that's the IFR. In New York City, the IFR is estimated to be 1.4%, which is 14 times that of the typical seasonal flu. They have attempted to confuse and obfuscate by conflating the two measures. I'm not sure if it's dishonesty or stupidity or both.

[Walt]

You’re failing to take into account that an unusually high number of COVID infections result in either mild or no[!?] symptoms at all. So apparently, a large percentage of the population has a natural immunity to the Wuhan Lab China Virus.

If they are infected, they did not have immunity. The infection did not cause bad symptoms, but that is not the same as immunity. Immunity would mean they were not infected.

If only 20% of the people in New York City have gotten the virus, and we are looking at a probable herd immunity rate of 80%, we can expect that New York is only one fourth done. And it also means that the rest of the USA is even less done.

Anyway, that should have been a *huge* red flag in terms of estimating a high mortality rate. At bare minimum, it’s counterintuitive to think ‘a deadly virus’ would leave so many of its ‘victims’ unsure if they’re actually even sick. Never made a lick of sense.

Many diseases have asymptomatic and presymptomatic carriers. HIV is the famous one, but typhoid, tuberculosis, polio, and many others come to mind. If reality is counterintuitive to you, then you have the problem, not reality.

[Walt]

The lowest mortality rate we can imagine is 0.25%. If we assume that everyone in NYC has gotten Covid-19, and that there will not be a single more death, then we get 0.25%. There is no way that everyone in NYC has gotten Covid-19, and there will be more deaths, so the number is higher than 0.25%. We can debate whether it is 0.5% or 1% or 2%, but we can not really know for sure which one it is.

The same people who gave us bad claims that the mortality rate would be below 0.1% are now trying to say it will be "below 0.3%". Why should we believe them? There is not much space between "below 0.3%" and 0.25%, so we would have to believe a series of nearly unimaginable numbers to get there.

[domer76]

sort of a stupid thing to say given that I have given you numbers in every post......but then, I forgot......you aren't posting, you're just being a basketball.....

Still waiting, lying faggot.