Phantasmal (05-24-2020)
Just to illustrate: if you want to avoid a car accident & reduce the # of accidents in general, there are a variety of things you have to do. You have to stay within the speed limit, observe the rules of the road, drive in the correct lane, stop when there is a stop sign or red light, not drink & drive, etc.
It's all very complicated. But it works for the most part if everyone does these things.
Phantasmal (05-24-2020)
This has been explained to you more times than I can count. I am going to give it another try, but I think you are trying to not get it.
Lets say each cuts rates of infection in half. They work, just not completely. Lets say Covid-19 has an R0 of 2.4, meaning if we do nothing each person will infect 2.4 more people. If we only do one thing, then we cut the R to 1.2. That means that every generation of the virus, we can expect 20% more people to have it. If we do all three, then the R will be 0.3, which means that every generation 70% less people will have it.
Making this all more complex, we have imperfect data, so cannot know what the R0 or R is for various decisions. We know that masks, social distancing, and lock downs work, and we know they do not work perfectly, but we do not know exactly how well they work.
I think we are really seeing that everything needs to be black and white for the Alt Right. While vaccines have successfully eradicated many viral dangers, the Alt Right sees no use for them because they will not 100% protect the individual. The rest of us know that 90% protection means that the virus goes extinct, but they really do not care.
We have actually discussed this before. I wrote a peer reviewed paper on computer viruses, and so was dealing with R0 and R twenty years ago. I am not claiming to be an epidemiologist, but I am at least a little familiar with the mathematics behind it all.
Someone recently said this is "not rocket science". Actually, rocket science is quite simple, using newtonian physics. Epidemiology is much more complex, because human behavior is difficult to model.
Teflon Don does not understand science, thus can't figure out masks, social distancing, and basic hygiene.
Russian trolls and their supporters go on Ignore, automatically: no second chance.
I don't believe you. You are a iiar.
BTW peer reviewed doesn't mean shit anymore. It used to, but it just sounds good to those who don't know what the fuck they are talking about. Lots of shit gets published that is peer reviewed. If your peer is as stupid as you are it doesn't mean shit. And lord are you stupid
Fauci here speaking out against masks.
Bookmarks