Earl (05-27-2020)
Or when they try to tell you ANYTHING based on their astrology-like pseudo-science. Let me guess, President Trump has a 99% chance of losing THIS TIME because Saturn is in Virgo, or some other made-up bullshit.
nyt hillary election.jpg
Earl (05-27-2020)
The specific election only happened once, so we really will never know what the chances for that specific election is. But the models have delivered odds in thousands of elections that taken as a group has been correct. There is a chance that this time they were wrong... But it is far from proven. In fact, right now it is just an opinion that you have with nothing to support it.
Earl (05-27-2020)
"When government fears the people, there is liberty. When the people fear the government, there is tyranny."
A lie doesn't become the truth, wrong doesn't become right, and evil doesn't become good just because it is accepted by a majority.
Author: Booker T. Washington
Earl (05-27-2020)
Moron prediction saved. Take the bet assclown: https://www.justplainpolitics.com/sh...to-participate
"When government fears the people, there is liberty. When the people fear the government, there is tyranny."
A lie doesn't become the truth, wrong doesn't become right, and evil doesn't become good just because it is accepted by a majority.
Author: Booker T. Washington
"When government fears the people, there is liberty. When the people fear the government, there is tyranny."
A lie doesn't become the truth, wrong doesn't become right, and evil doesn't become good just because it is accepted by a majority.
Author: Booker T. Washington
To make it all more complex, the odds that were given for the election were the odds as they were at the time of the polls. Comey changed those odds at the last second by announcing an investigation that ended up going nowhere.
So the election that the odds were given for did not even happen once, much less multiple times. What were the odds of the Nazis winning the Battle of France? It happened once, so it is impossible to know for sure. What were the odds of the Soviets winning WWIII in Europe? It did not even happen once.
"When government fears the people, there is liberty. When the people fear the government, there is tyranny."
A lie doesn't become the truth, wrong doesn't become right, and evil doesn't become good just because it is accepted by a majority.
Author: Booker T. Washington
"When government fears the people, there is liberty. When the people fear the government, there is tyranny."
A lie doesn't become the truth, wrong doesn't become right, and evil doesn't become good just because it is accepted by a majority.
Author: Booker T. Washington
Take the bet then!! https://www.justplainpolitics.com/sh...to-participate
"When government fears the people, there is liberty. When the people fear the government, there is tyranny."
A lie doesn't become the truth, wrong doesn't become right, and evil doesn't become good just because it is accepted by a majority.
Author: Booker T. Washington
Blah, blah, fucking blah. Take the bet! https://www.justplainpolitics.com/sh...to-participate
"When government fears the people, there is liberty. When the people fear the government, there is tyranny."
A lie doesn't become the truth, wrong doesn't become right, and evil doesn't become good just because it is accepted by a majority.
Author: Booker T. Washington
obama was also around the 40s in his first term around this time, in fact recently trump was even higher than obama was in this particular point in their terms. approval ratings aren't a 1:1 translation to who people will vote for, because it's not trump vs. no one. it's trump vs. someone else. case in point, trump won in 2016 with approval ratings in the 40's. free lesson from me, the poll expert.
The 'methodology' is a lie much of the time as well. It has to be a verifiable methodology, an it has to show how bias was removed during data collection, the raw data itself must be available, the entire set of questions used, whether its 'data' or 'made up shit' and how that can be verified, the variance must be declared and justified, the margin of error calculation must be shown, and selection by randN must be done up on the data. Anyone quoting a poll as the future is bogus. Statistical mathematics does not have the power of prediction any more than probability mathematics, and for the same reason.
Truth Detector (05-28-2020)
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