Another fake Democrat poll exposed

[artichoke]

You know Trump is in trouble when Rasmussen has him at 42% approval

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

Or when they try to tell you ANYTHING based on their astrology-like pseudo-science. Let me guess, President Trump has a 99% chance of losing THIS TIME because Saturn is in Virgo, or some other made-up bullshit.



nyt hillary election.jpg

[Walt]

I would say it was wrong because it vastly overestimated clintons chances, most metrics never had her anywhere near that high. silver had her only at like 68%
to say someone is 92% to win when they are predicated to have a +2 margin nationally is just totally foolish

The specific election only happened once, so we really will never know what the chances for that specific election is. But the models have delivered odds in thousands of elections that taken as a group has been correct. There is a chance that this time they were wrong... But it is far from proven. In fact, right now it is just an opinion that you have with nothing to support it.

[Truth Detector]

Another provably fake poll. This time, it's Quinnipac. They had to over-sample registered Democrats by 10% to manufacture their new claim about the child-molesting Alzheimer's patient now having "double-digit lead." They sampled 36% registered Democrats and 26% registered Republicans to make this happen.

This is why you ALWAYS click on the methodology and see how they got their numbers. This is the same kind of outright lie that caused people to think Hillary had a 92% chance of beating President Trump.

Attachment 15384

Biden Holds Double-Digit Lead Over Trump, New Poll Shows

Imagine the headlines conservatives could fabricate by wildly over-sampling registered Republicans like this:

-Majority of Americans want Obama administration officials prosecuted for treason

-Those who want to finish building the wall have a "double-digit lead" over those who do not

-American people overwhelmingly want power-abusing Democrat judges impeached and purged from federal judiciary

Should we be surprised?

[Truth Detector]

Trump gets the boot in November 2020, and jail in 2021.

Moron prediction saved. Take the bet assclown: https://www.justplainpolitics.com/sh...to-participate

[Truth Detector]

Democrat predictions are always wrong.

Correct; because they are delusional liars.

[Walt]

To make it all more complex, the odds that were given for the election were the odds as they were at the time of the polls. Comey changed those odds at the last second by announcing an investigation that ended up going nowhere.

So the election that the odds were given for did not even happen once, much less multiple times. What were the odds of the Nazis winning the Battle of France? It happened once, so it is impossible to know for sure. What were the odds of the Soviets winning WWIII in Europe? It did not even happen once.

[Truth Detector]

MSM and their think tanks are direct branches of the DNC ministry of propaganda and need to be regulated as in kind campaign contributors.

[Truth Detector]

I think 538 had more reasonable odds (74% Clinton). You have hit on the stupidity of the argument being made about polling in 2016, In fact, the final polls were fairly accurate, predicting a Clinton win by 3.3%. She actually won the popular vote by 2.1%. So when a member of the cult uses some four year old pundit predictions to cast doubt on all polling, it makes me laugh over the abject stupidity of the argument.

Dumbest argument on the planet: She actually won the popular vote by 2.1%.

[Truth Detector]

You know Trump is in trouble when Rasmussen has him at 42% approval

Take the bet then!! https://www.justplainpolitics.com/sh...to-participate

[Truth Detector]

To make it all more complex, the odds that were given for the election were the odds as they were at the time of the polls. Comey changed those odds at the last second by announcing an investigation that ended up going nowhere.

So the election that the odds were given for did not even happen once, much less multiple times. What were the odds of the Nazis winning the Battle of France? It happened once, so it is impossible to know for sure. What were the odds of the Soviets winning WWIII in Europe? It did not even happen once.

Blah, blah, fucking blah. Take the bet! https://www.justplainpolitics.com/sh...to-participate

[BRUTALITOPS]

You know Trump is in trouble when Rasmussen has him at 42% approval

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

obama was also around the 40s in his first term around this time, in fact recently trump was even higher than obama was in this particular point in their terms. approval ratings aren't a 1:1 translation to who people will vote for, because it's not trump vs. no one. it's trump vs. someone else. case in point, trump won in 2016 with approval ratings in the 40's. free lesson from me, the poll expert.

[Flash]

Another provably fake poll. They had to over-sample registered Democrats by 10% to manufacture their new claim about the child-molesting Alzheimer's patient now having "double-digit lead." They sampled 36% registered Democrats and 26% registered Republicans to make this happen.

All good polls over-sample Democrats because more people identify as Democrats than Republicans. This is illustrated by the 3% Hillary Clinton lead in the 2016 polls which proved accurate.

A good poll is representative of the national population (of likely voters).

[Into the Night]

Another provably fake poll. This time, it's Quinnipac. They had to over-sample registered Democrats by 10% to manufacture their new claim about the child-molesting Alzheimer's patient now having "double-digit lead." They sampled 36% registered Democrats and 26% registered Republicans to make this happen.

This is why you ALWAYS click on the methodology and see how they got their numbers. This is the same kind of outright lie that caused people to think Hillary had a 92% chance of beating President Trump.

Attachment 15384

Biden Holds Double-Digit Lead Over Trump, New Poll Shows

Imagine the headlines conservatives could fabricate by wildly over-sampling registered Republicans like this:

-Majority of Americans want Obama administration officials prosecuted for treason

-Those who want to finish building the wall have a "double-digit lead" over those who do not

-American people overwhelmingly want power-abusing Democrat judges impeached and purged from federal judiciary

The 'methodology' is a lie much of the time as well. It has to be a verifiable methodology, an it has to show how bias was removed during data collection, the raw data itself must be available, the entire set of questions used, whether its 'data' or 'made up shit' and how that can be verified, the variance must be declared and justified, the margin of error calculation must be shown, and selection by randN must be done up on the data. Anyone quoting a poll as the future is bogus. Statistical mathematics does not have the power of prediction any more than probability mathematics, and for the same reason.

[Concart]

Dumbest argument on the planet: She actually won the popular vote by 2.1%.

So facts are dumb? Yes, I know YOU think that, because you might be the stupidest troll on the internet.

[Into the Night]

I can't dig it up, because it's a lie. Your unwillingness to back up your claim pretty much establishes that it's a lie. The survey reflects the current political affiliation of a random sample of adults, therefore it can't 'oversample'. You are not only a liar, you are hopelessly ignorant about how polling works. Your idiotic explanation for why you don't post sources is transparent. You don't post them because they don't exist.

Bull. The 'survey' is fiction, just all the other news polls.