Reply With Quotemoon (05-01-2020)
Diversity Makes Greatness
Hello Micawber,
I was watching a show on the great WWII battle between the HMS Hood and the Bismark. Bismark got incredibly lucky and landed a shell in the ammo magazine of the Hood, which sank in less than 3 minutes, killing almost everyone aboard. Great Britain then sent everything they had after the Bismark, which at the time was the biggest, most powerful and modern warship anywhere. The English almost let the Bismark slip away and were reduced to sending old biplanes armed with torpedoes. Amazingly, the Bismark's anti aircraft guns were too modern for the relic biplanes. The AA guns were designed for planes attacking at a minimum of 150 mph, but the biplanes came in at a mere 80 mph. The Bismark kept targeting them and shooting, but all the shells exploded in front of the slow moving biplanes. That's how they managed to get one crucial torpedo hit which took out the Bismark's steering and set them up as sitting ducks until the British fleet could get there to finish the job.Originally Posted by Micawber
What does any of this have to do with coronavirus?
During the wrap-up of the presentation they remarked that in a matter of a few days over 3000 sailors lost their lives between the two great ships.
As I sat there and received that information the first thing I thought was: 'Shoot. We are losing more than that to covid-19.'
I was watching history as we are making it.
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moon (05-01-2020)
Diversity Makes Greatness
Monday
4-27
USA
Total Cases 1,010,356
New Cases +23,196
Total Deaths 56,797
New Deaths +1,384
Total Recovered 138,990
Active Cases 814,569
Serious, Critical 14,186
Tot Cases/1M pop 3,052
Deaths/1M pop 172
Total Tests 5,696,928
Tests/1M pop 17,211
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Diversity Makes Greatness
Hey, look at this!
The Active Cases didn't go up very much since yesterday!
It went from 812,966 to 814,569.
Nice. That is a very good sign. If that keeps up it could mean we are finally getting close to the peak.
And we only had +1,384 New Deaths today. Another encouragingly lower figure.
And the serious or critical number dropped a little.
Very good!
Finally, some hope for a peak, at last.
Let's hope this trend continues...
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Diversity Makes Greatness
Tuesday
4-28
USA
Total Cases 1,035,765
New Cases +25,409
Total Deaths 59,266
New Deaths +2,470
Total Recovered 142,238
Active Cases 834,261
Serious, Critical 15,298
Tot Cases/1M pop 3,129
Deaths/1M pop 179
Total Tests 5,919,847
Tests/1M pop 17,885
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Diversity Makes Greatness
Well, yesterday's numbers were nice, but today was not so nice.
2470 Americans lost their lives today. We have gone above that 58K Vietnam threshold and continue to go up.
Active Cases took a big 20K jump up to 834,261 today.
And the number of serious or critical cases went back above the 15K mark.
As much as we wish yesterday was the start of a new easing of the rise, that has not been sustained into today.
We have not reached the elusive peak yet, and the worst appears to be yet to come.
Do not listen to the president. He wishes things were better than they are, he wants them to be better, but you just can't spin numbers. The numbers are what the numbers are. He thinks the worst is behind us but the numbers do not show that. The numbers continued to rise. He can spin with all the adjectives he wants, but there is a reason he does not talk about numbers. They don't look good.
Please continue to take care of yourselves, don't drop your guard, look out for yourself and others, we are in this for the long haul.
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Diversity Makes Greatness
Wednesday
4-29
USA
Total Cases 1,064,194
New Cases +28,429
Total Deaths 61,656
New Deaths +2,390
Total Recovered 147,411
Active Cases 855,127
Serious, Critical 18,671
Tot Cases/1M pop 3,215
Deaths/1M pop 186
Total Tests 6,139,911
Tests/1M pop 18,549
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Diversity Makes Greatness
Here is a graph of the Active Cases in the USA up to today.
Should be easy enough to see that the curve on this graph has not reached a peak:
Screenshot_2020-04-29 United States Coronavirus 1,064,396 Cases and 61,668 Deaths - Worldometer.jpg
Click to enlarge..
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Diversity Makes Greatness
Thursday
4-30
USA
Total Cases 1,095,023
New Cases +30,829
Total Deaths 63,856
New Deaths +2,201
Total Recovered 152,324
Active Cases 878,843
Serious, Critical 15,226
Tot Cases/1M pop 3,308
Deaths/1M pop 193
Total Tests 6,391,887
Tests/1M pop 19,311
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Diversity Makes Greatness
Looking for that peak.
We want this thing to peak out.
No peak yet.
And look at that Active Cases figure.
We are on our way to having a million Active Cases.
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Phantasmal (05-01-2020)
Diversity Makes Greatness
Here's why I like math.
Math is math.
You can't spin the numbers.
The numbers are what the numbers are.
Math is like a no BS zone.
At the current rate of rise, since we have not reached the peak yet, extrapolating out, we will reach a million active cases of Covid-19 by May 10th.
I just performed an extrapolation of the current death rate which reveals that we will reach 100,000 deaths by May 20th.
A graph of the deaths in the USA from coronavirus Covid-19.
This would be the same pandemic that the president said would be miraculously going away, down from 15 cases down to close to zero.
Here's the death graph:
Screenshot_2020-05-01 United States Coronavirus 1,112,341 Cases and 64,914 Deaths - Worldometer.jpg
(Click to enlarge.)
Is there anybody to whom any part of this looks like a peak is behind us?
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Diversity Makes Greatness
Here is a graph of the daily deaths.
It fluctuates, so it's hard to tell if a peak is past us.
It isn't.
The thing to look at is the Active Cases.
Daily deaths:
Screenshot_2020-05-01 United States Coronavirus 1,112,341 Cases and 64,914 Deaths - Worldometer(.jpg
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Diversity Makes Greatness
Friday 5-1
USA
Total Cases 1,131,030
New Cases +36,007
Total Deaths 65,753
New Deaths +1,897
Total Recovered 161,563
Active Cases 903,714
Serious, Critical 16,481
Tot Cases/1M pop 3,417
Deaths/1M pop 199
Total Tests 6,699,878
Tests/1M pop 20,241
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Diversity Makes Greatness
Wow. Lotta new cases yesterday.
A spike in new cases.
New cases have risen sharply for the last 5 days:
Screenshot_2020-05-02 United States Coronavirus 1,152,379 Cases and 66,929 Deaths - Worldometer.jpg
No way we can say the peak is behind us.
The worst is still to come.
We better be real careful about opening businesses back up. Especially ones which would result in large crowds and groups in confined places for long periods of time.
If we are not smart about this we could end up with a second wave.
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Diversity Makes Greatness
Saturday
5-2
USA
Total Cases 1,160,774
New Cases +29,744
Total Deaths 67,444
New Deaths +1,691
Total Recovered 173,318
Active Cases 920,012
Serious, Critical 16,475
Tot Cases/1M pop 3,507
Deaths/1M pop 204
Total Tests 6,931,132
Tests/1M pop 20,940
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Diversity Makes Greatness
920K Active Cases. Wow.
I made a prediction on May 1 that we would have a million Active Cases by May 10th.
Let's see how that works out.
Obviously, no peak yet.
Personal Ignore Policy PIP: I like civil discourse. I will give you all the respect in the world if you respect me. Mouth off to me, or express overt racism, you will be PERMANENTLY Ignore Listed. Zero tolerance. No exceptions. I'll never read a word you write, even if quoted by another, nor respond to you, nor participate in your threads. ... Ignore the shallow. Cherish the thoughtful. Long Live Civil Discourse, Mutual Respect, and Good Debate! ps: Feel free to adopt my PIP. It works well.
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