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Thread: Corona Virus Peak Watch Thread

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    Date ... Active Cases ... Daily Rise

    5-23 ... 1,121,231 ... 7,381

    5-24 ... 1,135,434 ... 14,203

    5-25 ... 1,141,751 ... 6,317

    5-26 ... 1,144,734 ... 2,983

    5-27 ... 1,153,566 ... 8,832

    5-28 ... 1,166,406 ... 12,840

    5-29 ... 1,169,419 ... 3,013

    5-30 ... 1,176,025 ... 6,606 (This day might be a peak. We hope this is the high point. We shall see.)

    5-31 ... 1,131,108 ... -44,917 (nice big decline here. Let's see if it lasts.)

    6-1 .... 1,136,982 ... 5,874 (rising)

    6-2 .... 1,127,172 ... -9,810 (another nice drop. Hopefully this means we are passing the peak at last...)

    6-3 .... 1,103,971 ... -23,201 (NICE BIG DROP!!!)

    May 30th might really be IT.

    So far, (fingers crossed,) it looks like we may have passed a peak on May 30th.

    We need to keep practicing good social distancing measures. Our efforts appear to be working. This would be a really bad time to pretend it is all over, though. We still had over a 1000 Americans die yesterday, and over 20,000 new cases identified. We like that the number of serious / critical cases has fallen below 17K, but only just barely.
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    Quote Originally Posted by PoliTalker View Post
    Date ... Active Cases ... Daily Rise

    5-23 ... 1,121,231 ... 7,381

    5-24 ... 1,135,434 ... 14,203

    5-25 ... 1,141,751 ... 6,317

    5-26 ... 1,144,734 ... 2,983

    5-27 ... 1,153,566 ... 8,832

    5-28 ... 1,166,406 ... 12,840

    5-29 ... 1,169,419 ... 3,013

    5-30 ... 1,176,025 ... 6,606 (This day might be called a peak, but we need to see the number of Active Cases continue to decline after this.)

    5-31 ... 1,131,108 ... -44,917 (nice big decline here. Let's see if it lasts.)

    6-1 .... 1,136,982 ... 5,874 (rising)

    6-2 .... 1,127,172 ... -9,810 (another nice drop. Hopefully this means we are passing the peak at last...)

    6-3 .... 1,103,971 ... -23,201 (NICE BIG DROP!!!)

    This might really be IT.

    So far, (fingers crossed,) it looks like we may have passed a peak on May 30th.

    We need to keep practicing good social distancing measures. Our efforts appear to be working. This would be a really bad time to pretend it is all over, though. We still had over a 1000 Americans die yesterday, and over 20,000 new cases identified. We like that the number of serious / critical cases has fallen below 17K, but only just barely.
    If we don't see a spike after these protests, there might be something else at play here. Maybe warmer weather, maybe a bit of herd immunity, or maybe many more simply had it than thought - but we have had a week of huge crowds not practicing social distancing, at all.

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    Testing has shown our corona antibodies are at 3 percent. I have seen stats saying herd requires from 60 to 94 percent.. Herd in not even in the conversation now.

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    Hello Nordberg,

    Quote Originally Posted by Nordberg View Post
    Testing has shown our corona antibodies are at 3 percent. I have seen stats saying herd requires from 60 to 94 percent.. Herd in not even in the conversation now.
    Part of the problem is the lack of testing. That's a big problem because without adequate testing you don't have the true picture. It is widely agreed that the true numbers are far higher than the testing shows.

    Cawacko made a good comment. He asked where are the pictures of long lines of cars at existing testing sites, demanding more testing? We don't have those pictures. People are not demanding more testing. Many likely have or had the virus and never got tested. And there is good reason to avoid testing. If you suspect you have the virus and get tested you are going to have your life scrutinized. They are going to want to trace all your contacts. Everywhere you went and who you saw becomes public knowledge. People don't like that. They like their privacy.

    For testing to work well in the USA there has to be some kind of incentive. For Americans that means money. The government should be paying people to get tested. If we did that, you would see great demand for testing. Then we would get better data.

    It is entirely possible we have already reached herd immunity and simply don't know it. Time will tell. It could have peaked before we ever got testing rolled out in big numbers, and our rise in identified Active Cases merely reflected the rate at which we rolled out testing. Time will tell.
    Personal Ignore Policy PIP: I like civil discourse. I will give you all the respect in the world if you respect me. Mouth off to me, or express overt racism, you will be PERMANENTLY Ignore Listed. Zero tolerance. No exceptions. I'll never read a word you write, even if quoted by another, nor respond to you, nor participate in your threads. ... Ignore the shallow. Cherish the thoughtful. Long Live Civil Discourse, Mutual Respect, and Good Debate! ps: Feel free to adopt my PIP. It works well.

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    Hello BartenderElite,

    Quote Originally Posted by BartenderElite View Post
    If we don't see a spike after these protests, there might be something else at play here. Maybe warmer weather, maybe a bit of herd immunity, or maybe many more simply had it than thought - but we have had a week of huge crowds not practicing social distancing, at all.
    Naturally it is expected that participation in close proximity group activities will lead to increased transmission, but what is unclear is the percentage of the population that is out there doing that. Most protestors are younger, less vulnerable to COVID-19. They may get the disease but not know it. It could take some time before they might transmit it to others. It could be hard to tell if that creates a noticeable spike in the national data or not.

    It does help that the protests are outside, and that people tend not to be in close proximity with specific others for a long duration. Time will tell in the data.
    Personal Ignore Policy PIP: I like civil discourse. I will give you all the respect in the world if you respect me. Mouth off to me, or express overt racism, you will be PERMANENTLY Ignore Listed. Zero tolerance. No exceptions. I'll never read a word you write, even if quoted by another, nor respond to you, nor participate in your threads. ... Ignore the shallow. Cherish the thoughtful. Long Live Civil Discourse, Mutual Respect, and Good Debate! ps: Feel free to adopt my PIP. It works well.

  11. The Following User Groans At PoliTalker For This Awful Post:

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    Thursday

    6-4

    USA

    Total Cases 1,924,051

    New Cases +22,268

    Total Deaths 110,173

    New Deaths +1,031

    Total Recovered 712,252

    Active Cases 1,101,626

    Serious, Critical 17,083

    Tot Cases/1M pop 5,815

    Deaths/1M pop 333

    Total Tests 19,568,069

    Tests/1M pop 59,142
    Personal Ignore Policy PIP: I like civil discourse. I will give you all the respect in the world if you respect me. Mouth off to me, or express overt racism, you will be PERMANENTLY Ignore Listed. Zero tolerance. No exceptions. I'll never read a word you write, even if quoted by another, nor respond to you, nor participate in your threads. ... Ignore the shallow. Cherish the thoughtful. Long Live Civil Discourse, Mutual Respect, and Good Debate! ps: Feel free to adopt my PIP. It works well.

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    Poli-Talker may need to see a shrink, today.

    He/she/it cheered the economic loss by millions of Americans and their families caused by the virus from China that China failed to contain.

    Unemployment rate drops to 13.3% in May, signaling return of US jobs.
    CNN

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    The peak on May 30th still stands.

    Active Cases dropped again for 6-4.

    -2,345
    Personal Ignore Policy PIP: I like civil discourse. I will give you all the respect in the world if you respect me. Mouth off to me, or express overt racism, you will be PERMANENTLY Ignore Listed. Zero tolerance. No exceptions. I'll never read a word you write, even if quoted by another, nor respond to you, nor participate in your threads. ... Ignore the shallow. Cherish the thoughtful. Long Live Civil Discourse, Mutual Respect, and Good Debate! ps: Feel free to adopt my PIP. It works well.

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    Can't wait to see if the rioters and protesters pump up the death toll in the next week or so after an incubation period.
    Abortion rights dogma can obscure human reason & harden the human heart so much that the same person who feels
    empathy for animal suffering can lack compassion for unborn children who experience lethal violence and excruciating
    pain in abortion.

    Unborn animals are protected in their nesting places, humans are not. To abort something is to end something
    which has begun. To abort life is to end it.



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    Quote Originally Posted by Stretch View Post
    Can't wait to see if the rioters and protesters pump up the death toll in the next week or so after an incubation period.
    From what I read, we're already starting to see some big spikes in various areas.

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    Quote Originally Posted by BartenderElite View Post
    From what I read, we're already starting to see some big spikes in various areas.
    Those would be cases that have already been incubated for more than a week. And, if they're seeing it THIS soon, that would mean
    it's the extremely early stages where the recovery probabilities are at their highest with such immediate treatment.
    Abortion rights dogma can obscure human reason & harden the human heart so much that the same person who feels
    empathy for animal suffering can lack compassion for unborn children who experience lethal violence and excruciating
    pain in abortion.

    Unborn animals are protected in their nesting places, humans are not. To abort something is to end something
    which has begun. To abort life is to end it.



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    Quote Originally Posted by Earl View Post
    Poli-Talker may need to see a shrink, today.

    He/she/it cheered the economic loss by millions of Americans and their families caused by the virus from China that China failed to contain.

    Unemployment rate drops to 13.3% in May, signaling return of US jobs.
    CNN
    Earl, when was the last time that you say your shrink???????????????????????

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    Abortion rights dogma can obscure human reason & harden the human heart so much that the same person who feels
    empathy for animal suffering can lack compassion for unborn children who experience lethal violence and excruciating
    pain in abortion.

    Unborn animals are protected in their nesting places, humans are not. To abort something is to end something
    which has begun. To abort life is to end it.



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    Friday

    6-5

    USA

    Total Cases 1,965,708

    New Cases +25,393

    Total Deaths 111,390

    New Deaths +975

    Total Recovered 738,646

    Active Cases 1,115,672

    Serious, Critical 17,121

    Tot Cases/1M pop 5,941

    Deaths/1M pop 337

    Total Tests 20,267,335

    Tests/1M pop 61,255
    Personal Ignore Policy PIP: I like civil discourse. I will give you all the respect in the world if you respect me. Mouth off to me, or express overt racism, you will be PERMANENTLY Ignore Listed. Zero tolerance. No exceptions. I'll never read a word you write, even if quoted by another, nor respond to you, nor participate in your threads. ... Ignore the shallow. Cherish the thoughtful. Long Live Civil Discourse, Mutual Respect, and Good Debate! ps: Feel free to adopt my PIP. It works well.

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    The number of Active Cases of COIVD-19 jumped yesterday.

    Obviously we are not out of the woods by any means.

    The peak of 1,176,025 which was reached on May 30th still stands.

    Active Cases increased by 14,046 yesterday.

    We will continue to monitor the situation closely.

    This graph shows the peak, and it also shows that we have not dropped that much since our peak.

    (The 14K increase from yesterday has not been plotted on this graph)

    Screenshot_2020-06-06 United States Coronavirus 1,967,343 Cases and 111,412 Deaths - Worldometer.jpg

    (click to enlarge)
    Personal Ignore Policy PIP: I like civil discourse. I will give you all the respect in the world if you respect me. Mouth off to me, or express overt racism, you will be PERMANENTLY Ignore Listed. Zero tolerance. No exceptions. I'll never read a word you write, even if quoted by another, nor respond to you, nor participate in your threads. ... Ignore the shallow. Cherish the thoughtful. Long Live Civil Discourse, Mutual Respect, and Good Debate! ps: Feel free to adopt my PIP. It works well.

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