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Thread: IHME morbidity total projection drops to 60k by August

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    Thumbs up IHME morbidity total projection drops to 60k by August

    per FOX reportage, per University of Washington graph
    Peak date moved back to April 12th (earlier date) as well

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    Quote Originally Posted by dukkha View Post
    per FOX reportage, per University of Washington graph
    Peak date moved back to April 12th (earlier date) as well
    So, how are we supposed to get to even 60k when the peak is this Sunday? Doesn’t a peak imply the death rate starts to drop after *the peak*?

    Maybe one of the COVID enthusiasts can explains it.

    Even with their ‘imaginative’ ways of recording COVID deaths I don’t see much hope[?] of getting to 60k.
    Coup has started. First of many steps. Impeachment will follow ultimately~WB attorney Mark Zaid, January 2017

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    Quote Originally Posted by Darth Omar View Post
    So, how are we supposed to get to even 60k when the peak is this Sunday? Doesn’t a peak imply the death rate starts to drop after *the peak*?

    Maybe one of the COVID enthusiasts can explains it.

    Even with their ‘imaginative’ ways of recording COVID deaths I don’t see much hope[?] of getting to 60k.
    sorry. I forgot to mention the count extends to August 1st

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    Good to see we are reducing the mortality risk by states finally following the lead of California and New York by issuing mandatory shelter in place orders. Trump should have issued a shelter in place national order weeks ago instead of letting Cal and NY lead the nation

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    Quote Originally Posted by dukkha View Post
    sorry. I forgot to mention the count extends to August 1st
    The curve is going to have to fall off off pretty slow even at that.

    Also, they are relying on NYC for the bulk of their numbers. If it falls off too quick in NYC the rest of the country is going to have to pick up the slack and the bulk of the country is pretty quiet except for some hot spots.

    I wouldn’t lay a lot of money on reaching 60k even by August.

    We’ll see.
    Coup has started. First of many steps. Impeachment will follow ultimately~WB attorney Mark Zaid, January 2017

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    Quote Originally Posted by Cypress View Post
    Good to see we are reducing the mortality risk by states finally following the lead of California and New York by issuing mandatory shelter in place orders. Trump should have issued a shelter in place national order weeks ago instead of letting Cal and NY lead the nation
    you'd be screaming "Trump is a fascist dictator" in a heartbeat

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    Quote Originally Posted by Darth Omar View Post
    The curve is going to have to fall off off pretty slow even at that.

    Also, they are relying on NYC for the bulk of their numbers. If it falls off too quick in NYC the rest of the country is going to have to pick up the slack and the bulk of the country is pretty quiet except for some hot spots.

    I wouldn’t lay a lot of money on reaching 60k even by August.

    We’ll see.
    isn't that about the same as a mild flu season?

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    and BTW so called "social distancing" was factored into the original models as well

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    Quote Originally Posted by dukkha View Post
    isn't that about the same as a mild flu season?
    No, 60k is a bad season. I think the average is 20-30k but you can check me on that.

    But like has been said, you can ‘make’ a bad flu season by counting all flu-related deaths as strictly flu deaths.
    Coup has started. First of many steps. Impeachment will follow ultimately~WB attorney Mark Zaid, January 2017

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    Quote Originally Posted by dukkha View Post
    and BTW so called "social distancing" was factored into the original models as well
    Which is something that’s never been tried on a such a large scale before so there needs to be an *independent* study done on it after this all over.
    Coup has started. First of many steps. Impeachment will follow ultimately~WB attorney Mark Zaid, January 2017

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    Quote Originally Posted by Darth Omar View Post
    Which is something that’s never been tried on a such a large scale before so there needs to be an *independent* study done on it after this all over.
    they fucked up big time.
    China is to blame for the pandemic, but who came up with these crazy models that caused the shutdown?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Cypress View Post
    Good to see we are reducing the mortality risk by states finally following the lead of California and New York by issuing mandatory shelter in place orders. Trump should have issued a shelter in place national order weeks ago instead of letting Cal and NY lead the nation
    This from the same site
    LENGTH OF THE EPIDEMIC

    Why do your estimates only go until July? Does that mean the outbreak will be over then?
    Our model says that social distancing will likely lead to the end of the first wave of the epidemic by early June. The question of whether there will be a second wave of the epidemic will depend on what we do to avoid reintroducing COVID-19 into the population. By end the of the first wave of the epidemic, an estimated 97% of the population of the United States will still be susceptible to the disease, so avoiding reintroduction of COVID-19 through mass screening, contact tracing, and quarantine will be essential to avoid a second wave.
    kag: to choke something down in disgust

    Keep America Gagging

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    Quote Originally Posted by Phantasmal View Post
    This from the same site
    LENGTH OF THE EPIDEMIC

    Why do your estimates only go until July? Does that mean the outbreak will be over then?
    Our model says that social distancing will likely lead to the end of the first wave of the epidemic by early June. The question of whether there will be a second wave of the epidemic will depend on what we do to avoid reintroducing COVID-19 into the population. By end the of the first wave of the epidemic, an estimated 97% of the population of the United States will still be susceptible to the disease, so avoiding reintroduction of COVID-19 through mass screening, contact tracing, and quarantine will be essential to avoid a second wave.
    I see that conservatives are still downplaying the risk. It only seems like yesterday when they were telling us this was a Democratic hoax, that it was not any different than the common cold!

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    Quote Originally Posted by dukkha View Post
    and BTW so called "social distancing" was factored into the original models as well
    Exactly.
    Abortion rights dogma can obscure human reason & harden the human heart so much that the same person who feels
    empathy for animal suffering can lack compassion for unborn children who experience lethal violence and excruciating
    pain in abortion.

    Unborn animals are protected in their nesting places, humans are not. To abort something is to end something
    which has begun. To abort life is to end it.



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    Quote Originally Posted by Cypress View Post
    I see that conservatives are still downplaying the risk. It only seems like yesterday when they were telling us this was a Democratic hoax, that it was not any different than the common cold!
    you can thank the WHO for that (parroting China talking points)
    this isn't "conservatives" - it's an IHME projection

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