Originally Posted by
BartenderElite
I agree. But a few things are clear at this point: this is one of the most easily spread contagions we've seen in many years, and a very quick decision had to be made on containment.
Everything sort of started when the NBA shut down. Had they taken another few weeks from that point to evaluate & try to figure out a better way, can you imagine how much this would have spread? With the masses still going to work, schools, parks & other gatherings? The numbers would probably be through the roof today. I don't think that's disputable.
The ideal would be if this just had to go for a few more weeks, and we could start to stagger people back to work - by region, by demographic, etc. The economy could still roar back. I don't think it can sustain a 6 month period like this, or something along those lines.
But they actions they took at the time were the correct ones, imo.
Given what they have been telling us, I agree.
Problem is, what they have been telling us has been based on models that were apparently based on faulty assumptions. Modeling large scale phenomena like climate change and global pandemics is susceptible to the ‘garbage in-garbage out’ phenomena.
IOW, they are no better than the data and/or assumptions that go into them.
In this instance, they have no idea how many people *have had* COVID. That’s a critical value because that will tell you how close we are to herd immunity—or far away from herd immunity. It would be nice if they didn’t have to guess at it. Highly contagious viruses with low mortality rates are susceptible to herd immunity almost by definition. It would be nice to know if COVID will have a statistically significant lower number of potential victims—if there is a Round Two.
The *have had* value would also give us an accurate mortality rate instead of relying on numbers that are susceptible to selection bias.
These models *at least appear* that they were based on the assumption that every region will ‘go the way of Italy’ in their own time. That assumption flies in the face of the fact that the big COVID numbers correlate with several factors that are simply absent in huge swathes of the country.
Yesterday Cuomo said the COVID numbers ‘were flat’ in the state of New York outside of NYC. Well, given that big COVID numbers correlate with high population density why should that surprise him or anybody else that has been paying attention to this?
If it surprises Fauci maybe Trump should consider firing him by this time next week.
Coup has started. First of many steps. Impeachment will follow ultimately~WB attorney Mark Zaid, January 2017
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