Hello Dutch Uncle,
Originally Posted by
Dutch Uncle
As the current briefing by Dr. Birx states, this peak is dependent upon everyone maintaining the recommended procedures. If everyone goes to political rallies and BBQ parties, then, yes, it will be the first peak.
I don't think I've done a good job of explaining the three peaks I was talking about.
Not flare ups after the death rate has peaked.
The three normal peaks which we can expect.
1st peak: The number of active cases.
2nd peak: The number of current hospitalizations.
3rd peak: The daily death rate.
It happens this way because it takes the disease some time to kill somebody. First they contract covid-19. Some 5.5 days later, they feel symptoms. Maybe they try to tough it out for a few days. They get a test. If it gets worse they go to the hospital. More days go by. If it continues to get worse then they die. It doesn't all happen on the same day. That's why there is a time delay between the three peaks.
If there is a resurgence of the disease in the fall, we will see those three peaks repeat during that second round.
The three peaks happen for each outbreak and each locality.
Different localities will see their three peaks occur at different times. It's not like the whole nation will see one big peak together on the same day.
The three peaks will happen in NYC before they will happen in New Orleans.
The timing is driven by the course of the spread, and the severity is driven by when stay-at-home orders were issued.
Last edited by PoliTalker; 04-06-2020 at 05:55 AM.
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