COVID projection numbers going down in WV

[Darth Omar]

I just did.

You don’t count lol.

[Legion]

You don’t count lol.

No, lol?





A new study published in The Lancet Infectious Diseases medical journal estimates that the death rate of coronavirus is significantly lower than previously reported.

In early March, World Health Organization Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said the mortality rate of COVID-19 globally was about 3.4%, while Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said it could be anywhere from 1-2% if “you just do the math,” based on initial reports out of other countries. “What we’re hearing right now is that there aren’t as many asymptotic cases as we think. Which made them elevate, I think, what their mortality is,” Fauci explained.

The new study published in Lancet estimates that even the lower-end 1% fatality rate estimation is too high. A more accurate estimation of the percentage of people who will die due to complications from the virus, researchers say, is about two-thirds that, 0.66%.

That coronavirus death rate, which is lower than earlier estimates, takes into account potentially milder cases that often go undiagnosed. When undetected infections aren’t taken into account, the Lancet study found that the coronavirus death rate was 1.38%, which is more consistent with earlier reports.

Only taking into account confirmed cases results in an incomplete data set and generally includes those with the more severe symptoms, rather than the more mild cases, which previous studies suggest could be about half the number of COVID-19 cases.

The new study attempts to account for the asymptomatic or very mild cases. To do so, the researchers looked at infection rates of people who returned to their home countries on flights from Wuhan, China.

According to the study, these people received PCR tests — a type of test that would be able to identify how many of those travelers were shedding the virus, even if they didn’t show symptoms. Researchers combined that data on ‘infection prevalence’ with public information on reported cases and deaths, estimating the overall death rate to be about two-thirds of 1%.

For those younger than 40, the estimated fatality rate is even lower, just 0.16%, while those younger than 9 have only an estimated 0.00161% chance of dying from complications related to the virus.


https://tinyurl.com/DEMS-HATE-GOOD-NEWS

[Darth Omar]

Preaching to the choir.

Until there is mass serum antibody testing to see who *has had* COVID, the mortality rate estimates are garbage and will error on the high side.

At minimum, this should be done on anyone who has had any sort of ‘undiagnosed flu’ since January. It may even provide a pool of healthcare workers that are immune to COVID.

Meanwhile, I’ll wait here for one of the COVID disaster enthusiasts to explain the *data* from WV and why it is falling well below the original projections.

[Legion]

I’ll wait here for one of the COVID disaster enthusiasts to explain the *data* from WV and why it is falling well below the original projections.

[RB 60]

The Amish are all dead. Okay, that's not funny. I saw a bunch of them swarming a job site yesterday, so they are still around here in Ohio.

Looks like Millersburg has it's first COVID-19 case. https://www.dispatch.com/news/202003...-officials-say

The Amish are quite popular builders here in PA too. I just hope they also abide by these mandates and stay safe.

[Legion]