The next two weeks

[Darth Omar]

“The 15 days that we’ve had of mitigation clearly are having an effect,” Dr. Fauci said. But, he added: “In the next several days to a week or so we are going to continue to see things go up.”

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nyt...dates.amp.html
_______________

And then, what? They start to go back down?

And we’re supposed to go from 5k-ish deaths to 200k in the space of two weeks? How is that even possible?

I’ll say this, we have us a prediction, finally.

[Earl]

“The 15 days that we’ve had of mitigation clearly are having an effect,” Dr. Fauci said. But, he added: “In the next several days to a week or so we are going to continue to see things go up.”

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nyt...dates.amp.html
_______________

And then, what? They start to go back down?

And we’re supposed to go from 5k-ish deaths to 200k in the space of two weeks? How is that even possible?

I’ll say this, we have us a prediction, finally.

Indeed.

Modeling can’t predict how Americans will respond to social distancing, hand washing and other directives.

Perhaps predictions should be left to the psychics.

[Darth Omar]

Indeed.

Modeling can’t predict how Americans will respond to social distancing, hand washing and other directives.

Perhsps predictions should be left to the psychics.

Has me scratching my head, Earl.

[CFM]

“The 15 days that we’ve had of mitigation clearly are having an effect,” Dr. Fauci said. But, he added: “In the next several days to a week or so we are going to continue to see things go up.”

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nyt...dates.amp.html
_______________

And then, what? They start to go back down?

And we’re supposed to go from 5k-ish deaths to 200k in the space of two weeks? How is that even possible?

I’ll say this, we have us a prediction, finally.

It's the boiling frog scenario being played out.

[Darth Omar]

It's the boiling frog scenario being played out.

Well, if the prediction doesn’t at least land in the ballpark look for some frogs to start jumping out of the pot.

[CFM]

Well, if the prediction doesn’t at least land in the ballpark look for some frogs to start jumping out of the pot.

This one didn't let himself get put into the pot.

What concerns me more about this is the ease at which so many are willing to be controlled and automatically accept what the government tells them to do.

[Earl]

Has me scratching my head, Earl.

Lol.

The Psychics Company went bankrupt.

Shouldn’t (wait for it) they have seen that coming?

A little humor...well very little humor.

[Earl]

Georgia Tech experiment:

They cut off one of a frog’s leg and told it to hop. It hopped.

They cut off the second leg...

They cut off the third leg...

They cut off the fourth leg and told it to hop. It didn’t.

Conclusion...cutting off all four legs of a frog causes it to become deaf.

Pay attention, lefties.

[tsuke]

Well, if the prediction doesn’t at least land in the ballpark look for some frogs to start jumping out of the pot.

Weve had predictions for a while now from a low of 220000 deaths to 2.2 million deaths by the imperial college of london.

If anything 100000 deaths is understating it.

[Darth Omar]

This one didn't let himself get put into the pot.

What concerns me more about this is the ease at which so many are willing to be controlled and automatically accept what the government tells them to do.

Well, I’m doing my part with the social distancing and etc. COVID virus is a real thing that is killing lots of people—in parts of the country. I wonder about some of the projections but I’ll guess we’ll soon find out about that.

Though as soon as the weather dries out I’m heading to Lowes for project material lol.

[Darth Omar]

Weve had predictions for a while now from a low of 220000 deaths to 2.2 million deaths by the imperial college of london.

If anything 100000 deaths is understating it.

Rushed science is shoddy science.

We’ll see.

[CFM]

Well, I’m doing my part with the social distancing and etc. COVID virus is a real thing that is killing lots of people—in parts of the country. I wonder about some of the projections but I’ll guess we’ll soon find out about that.

Though as soon as the weather dries out I’m heading to Lowes for project material lol.

Been to Lowes at least once/day since all this started.

[Bigdog]

“The 15 days that we’ve had of mitigation clearly are having an effect,” Dr. Fauci said. But, he added: “In the next several days to a week or so we are going to continue to see things go up.”

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nyt...dates.amp.html
_______________

And then, what? They start to go back down?

And we’re supposed to go from 5k-ish deaths to 200k in the space of two weeks? How is that even possible?

I’ll say this, we have us a prediction, finally.

I assume those 100k - 200k numbers are a one year forecast.

[Darth Omar]

I assume those 100k - 200k numbers are a one year forecast.

Almost have to be.

But he implied they were going to peak then drop on this go-round.

Even this season, it has to jump from 4K into the tens of thousands to hit seasonal flu total range. And this is all going to happen in two weeks?

I guess we’ll find out.

[Bigdog]

Almost have to be.

But he implied they were going to peak then drop on this go-round.

Even this season, it has to jump from 4K into the tens of thousands to hit seasonal flu total range. And this is all going to happen in two weeks?

I guess we’ll find out.

I could see us hitting 20-30k deaths in two weeks in a worst case scenario, no higher than that. JMHO.

But as you noted, these numbers include co-mortality from existing preconditions.