Originally Posted by
Walt
I never said anything about 12-15% mortality rate. That is completely made up by you.
The original mortality rate I used was 1%. That gets you to 800,000 to 2.4 million. I then assume the mortality rate will be lower as treatments improve, and get between 100,000 to a million. I do put forward the possibility of a complete system breakdown, and 4% mortality rate, which can get you 10 million... But that is a worst case scenario. Nowhere do I say anything about 12-15%.
80% of Covid-19 patients do not need hospitalization, which leaves 20% needing hospitalization. More importantly 5% of Covid-19 patients need intensive care. If that intensive care is not available, then we start seeing a 4% mortality rate. If intensive care and new antivirals are available, we can start seeing under 1% mortality.
Now if it starts mutating, all bets are off. First, it might become more deadly, but that is not the real fear. The real fear is that we have to deal with repeated new outbreaks for the rest of time, much like we deal with new colds or new flues. That could mean anyone with severe, but not currently life ending health problems would die. That is where we get to a permanent decade taken off life expectancy. Even there, we would not see 12 to 15% mortality. It would be more like a permanent yearly 0.1 to 0.4% mortality.
First off, all viruses mutate and mutations are random. So COVID-19 could just as easily mutate to a less virulent form as the other way. They don’t ‘think’ and plan an attack.
Your second point about a nationwide system breakdown is nowhere near on the horizon. That’s speculation that goes beyond the facts on the ground. Which are these: COVID-19 is a threat to the elderly and those individuals with comorbid factors. In contrast, the N1H1 outbreak affected younger people. You are going to need *a substantial number* of younger victims to reach the kind of statistics you are talking about.
And it just isn’t happening.
Coup has started. First of many steps. Impeachment will follow ultimately~WB attorney Mark Zaid, January 2017
Bookmarks