U.S. housing starts at 13-year high, factory output gains

[dukkha]

U.S. homebuilding surged to a 13-year high in December as activity increased across the board, suggesting the housing market recovery was back on track amid low mortgage rates, and could help support the longest economic expansion on record.

The dollar firmed against a basket of currencies, while U.S. Treasury debt prices fell. Stocks on Wall Street were trading higher, with the main indexes hitting record highs.

Housing starts soared 40.8% on a year-on-year basis in December. An estimated 1.290 million housing units were started in 2019, up 3.2% compared to 2018.

The rise in construction, together with an increase in completions and the inventory of homes under construction, could ease a housing shortage that has constrained sales over the last couple of years. Housing completions increased 5.1% to a rate of 1.277 million units in December.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-u...-idUSKBN1ZG1KP

[dukkha]

so much winning!

[dukkha]

Key Insights

The data indicate residential construction added to fourth-quarter growth after contributing in the previous quarter for the first time since the end of 2017. While the spike may not be immediately sustained at these levels, demand has been fueled by mortgage rates near a three-year low as the job market remains resilient and wage gains help put money into the pockets of potential homebuyers.

Construction of single-family homes rose 11.2% to the highest since mid-2007, while permits for those dwellings decreased 0.5%. Groundbreakings for the multifamily category, which tends to be more volatile and includes apartment buildings and condominiums, jumped 29.8% to the highest since 1986.

The full-year gain was more subdued, as new-home construction rose 3.2% following 3.9% in 2018. Permits were up 3.9% in 2019.

Even so, the strong overall reading on starts corroborates a jump in developers’ confidence. U.S. homebuilder sentiment posted the highest back-to-back readings since 1999 in December and January amid a jump in prospective buyers and a bump in the sales outlook.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...st-in-13-years

[Walt]

The highest it has been since the beginning of the Great Recession. That is either really good news, or really bad news. We are in no state for a Great Recession II.

I cannot tell you what the future will bring. We are currently in the longest expansion in recorded history. We have never gone this long without a recession. In theory, expansions do not die of old age, which is to say that simply being long does not make a recession any more likely... But that is just "in theory."

Interest rates are at extreme lows, and even in negative territory(which in theory is impossible). If we do have a recession, there is almost no room for fiscal stimulus to get us out. Worse yet, we certainly do not have the stable leadership that is needed in a recession.

So there is a better than usual possibility that a recession could turn into something even more serious.

Given all that, I want to only hear very boring economic news. When I hear bad news, I tense up. When I hear very good news, I tense up, because it can often be the warning of something going wrong.

[Earl]

The highest it has been since the beginning of the Great Recession. That is either really good news, or really bad news. We are in no state for a Great Recession II.

I cannot tell you what the future will bring. We are currently in the longest expansion in recorded history. We have never gone this long without a recession. In theory, expansions do not die of old age, which is to say that simply being long does not make a recession any more likely... But that is just "in theory."

Interest rates are at extreme lows, and even in negative territory(which in theory is impossible). If we do have a recession, there is almost no room for fiscal stimulus to get us out. Worse yet, we certainly do not have the stable leadership that is needed in a recession.

So there is a better than usual possibility that a recession could turn into something even more serious.

Given all that, I want to only hear very boring economic news. When I hear bad news, I tense up. When I hear very good news, I tense up, because it can often be the warning of something going wrong.

So, you are tense and President Trump is a great president.

Glad to hear it...see how those straw-men work?

[Walt]

Do, you are tense and President Trump is a great president.

Glad to hear it...see how those straw-men work?

If trump is a "great president" he certainly has not shown it yet. You cannot give trump credit for the longest expansion that started long before he took office. Any reasonable person would be worried that when tested, trump will show himself to be unstable. He certainly has proven himself extremely unstable even with minor tests.

I, and almost everyone else looking at the economy is worried. Everyone is completely honest that it is not something definite. But all expansions come to an end sooner or later, and this is a record long one... And there is very little room for getting out of a recession with such low interest rates. And trump is heavily into borrowing so no room for budgetary stimulus.

[Earl]

The president’s accomplishments are legion.

The economy is booming and after three (3) years, it’s Trump’s economy.

When Obama’s economy was improving, it was Obama’s economy but when President Trump’s economy is booming, it’s Obama’s economy.

Lol...double lol.

[Centerleftfl]

Does EVERYONE HERE realize, we WILL pay the price? And likely soon! TRUMP'S orgasmic spending coupled with tax cuts is 100% propped up by ARTIFICIALLY the FED. The FED he browbeat when they dared to raise rates commensurate with ACTUAL economic indicators, unemployment, and myriad of factors they consider. He has BLOWN UP DEFICIT SPENDING bigger and fatter than the balloon below. And managed to do it in than less than 3 years.

(Everyone does KNOW this don't they?)



There are thousands of articles on the subject.

RCP is considered conservative...


https://www.realclearpolitics.com/vi...t_go_down.html

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/vi...e_country.html

[Earl]

The E-Con professors at the university where my Son-in-Law is preparing to defend his PhD dissertation are unanimous about the economy, a stable economy for two (2) years with no recession.

[Charoite]

I have family members that work dealing in real estate. From what I'm seeing and hearing from them and elsewhere makes me worry the housing market is bubbling again under much of the same bullshit. If it crashes you can look forward to things sucking again. I'd sell while things are hot and don't have the likelihood of a downward spiral. Things started an upturn in the last year of the Obama administration and have been seemingly inflating. I don't doubt the banks are up to shit again.

[dukkha]

If trump is a "great president" he certainly has not shown it yet. You cannot give trump credit for the longest expansion that started long before he took office. Any reasonable person would be worried that when tested, trump will show himself to be unstable. He certainly has proven himself extremely unstable even with minor tests.

I, and almost everyone else looking at the economy is worried. Everyone is completely honest that it is not something definite. But all expansions come to an end sooner or later, and this is a record long one... And there is very little room for getting out of a recession with such low interest rates. And trump is heavily into borrowing so no room for budgetary stimulus.

so you have no clue as well about wage growth under Trump (and not under Obama) record low unemployment
( which gets harder and harder to do the longer the recovery) with little inflation,and the growth of good jobs
( Obama lost 200k manufacturing jobs -Trump has grown about 500k) the labor participation rate getting better
and now a housing re-start after worries of a slowdown. and the markets of course

Go ahead and focus on a "recession" -of course it will happen -but not in the foreseeable future

[Walt]

The E-Con professors at the university where my Son-in-Law is preparing to defend his PhD dissertation are unanimous about the economy, a stable economy for two (2) years with no recession.

Sorry about hearing that the economic professors at your son's school are so incompetent. Well, having a PHD even from an unaccredited school is something. Just tell him to smudge out the name of the loser school on that diploma and he will surely find some sort of job :-P He should practice asking whether they want fries with that?

Seriously Earl, you just sound stupid at the moment.

[Earl]

Sorry about hearing that the economic professors at your son's school are so incompetent. Well, having a PHD even from an unaccredited school is something. Just tell him to smudge out the name of the loser school on that diploma and he will surely find some sort of job :-P He should practice asking whether they want fries with that?

Seriously Earl, you just sound stupid at the moment.

Actually, it’s my SON-IN-LAW as I posted and you were pretty stupid to not note the difference.

“The E-Con professors at the university where my Son-in-Law is preparing to defend his PhD dissertation are unanimous about the economy, a stable economy for two (2) years with no recession.”

You have no clue as to which university he is completing his graduate work and basically no clue period.

As to the “fries with that” you appear to have first hand knowledge...learn to read and you eon’t have to ask your customers.

Have you learned the days of the week yet? Saturday school?

[cawacko]

I have family members that work dealing in real estate. From what I'm seeing and hearing from them and elsewhere makes me worry the housing market is bubbling again under much of the same bullshit. If it crashes you can look forward to things sucking again. I'd sell while things are hot and don't have the likelihood of a downward spiral. Things started an upturn in the last year of the Obama administration and have been seemingly inflating. I don't doubt the banks are up to shit again.

(Residential) real estate is very localized. Just telling someone to sell makes no sense without knowing where they are in life and where they live.

And yes, housing prices are inflated thanks largely to the Fed.

[Walt]

Blah... Blah.... Blah.... Nonsense Claim... Blah... Blah... Blah...

Good economists never absolutely agree on predictions, and never make such certain predictions. No way a good school would have 100% agreement on such a impossible to predict prediction.

Most surveys of economists put it at 50/50 chance, with huge amounts of uncertainty.

Have you learned the days of the week yet? Saturday school?

No, I am coming off of several months of night work in NYC, so the days are literally running together.