Russia, Ukraine to hold 1st major peace summit in years next week

[anatta]

Russia and Ukraine will hold peace talks at a summit in Paris on Monday, the first time in three years there have been high-level talks between the two countries focused on ending the war in eastern Ukraine.

The talks are taking place in the so-called "Normandy Format," with French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angel Merkel mediating the negotiations. Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy will meet for the first time at the summit.

The Normandy group has not been held since October 2016, a reflection of how efforts to end the war have stalled, with the conflict essentially unchanged for years as soldiers and civilians continue to be killed. The war began after Russian annexed Crimea in 2014 Since then, 13,000 people -- about a quarter of them civilians -- have been killed more than 2 million displaced, according to the U.N.

o clear a path to the summit, Ukraine and the Russian-controlled rebels did take significant steps. Driven mostly by Zelenskiy, the sides traded of dozens of prisoners, including some of the most high-profile political prisoners held by Russia. Ukraine and then the rebels pulled troops back from front-line areas around three key towns.

But it is unclear where the two sides go after those concessions to actually bring the war to its conclusion.

One of the Kremlin’s conditions for holding the summit was that Ukraine commit to the "Steinmeier Formula." Named after Germany’s former foreign minister who proposed it, the formula holds that elections be held in the separatist regions and then Ukraine would regain control of the territory.


The formula is favored by Moscow and has been highly controversial in Ukraine, because it would mean holding elections while Russia controlled the rebel areas and Russia would therefore be able to dictate the vote.

The dilemma is at the heart of what is preventing Ukraine and Russia from resolving the war. Russia’s objective has been for Ukraine to reincorporate the separatist regions as part of a federation, giving them broad autonomy. In practice, that would mean leaving two Russian puppet regions in Ukraine, giving Moscow a permanent lever to block the country from joining NATO or the European Union.

That situation has been unacceptable to Kyiv and there is no sign it isn’t still. Zelenskiy, having signed onto the Steinmeier Formula in October in order to obtain the summit, immediately said elections would not be held until Ukraine regains control of its border with Russia in the rebel territories. Russia, meanwhile, has insisted on elections first.

Kremlin officials and Zelenskiy himself in the past two weeks have both said publicly they believe the difference will likely not be resolved in Paris. Zelenskiy has said he also wants to discuss Crimea, which the Kremlin has said is non-negotiable.

"On the whole Russia and Ukraine are going to the summit in Paris with such contrary positions on keys aspects of resolving [the conflict], that serious progress in the 'Normandy Format' should not be expected. Not one of the sides has taken the decision to make strategic concessions on the status of Donbass. And they don’t have a plan B, apart from freezing the conflict as a result of the troop withdrawal," Vladimir Frolov, an analyst and former Russian diplomat, wrote in the Russian magazine, Republic.

[anatta]

Some also worry that Ukraine might find itself pressured into concessions by Macron and Merkel, who are both eager to improve relations with Russia and to ease some sanctions on it.

"The risk is real that in order for the Paris summit to become a 'success' from a Franco-German perspective, Mr. Zelensky will come under great pressure to be 'reasonable' and to agree to compromises that will lead to 'lasting peace,'" Willem Aldershoff, a former head of unit at the European Commission, wrote in an op-ed in The Financial Times on Saturday. In practice, he wrote that might mean holding elections without Ukraine regaining control of its border or Russian and separatist troops withdrawing.

In the long-term, a freeze of the conflict seems like the most likely outcome, with the rebel regions essentially left as unrecognized states controlled by Moscow. This has been the case in Georgia following Russia’s invasion in 2008, as well as Moldova.

"They don’t have a plan B, apart from freezing the conflict as a result of the troop withdrawal," Frolov, the former Russian diplomat, wrote in Republic.
https://www.yahoo.com/gma/russia-ukr...opstories.html

[anatta]

it's atough war because Donbass looks more to Russia for jobs and language.

Why can't we at least issue some statement of support?? FFS we care more about Syria peace plan then Ukraines!

Beter yet -send a representative to be official in charge of securing peace in Donbass

[Micawber]

Give back Crimea russian shitheads

[anatta]

Give back Crimea russian shitheads

ROFL..Poroshenko should have thought of that before threatening Sevastopol access


But this is Donbass, not Crimea at war

[Cypress]

A complex issue not conducive to easy solutions.

The Kremlin clearly needs to be held to account for violating international norms and standards, for the use of military force to co-opt the sovereign territory of a neighboring nation. Something Trump is clearly loathe to do.

On the other hand, Russia wanting to keep Ukraine out of NATO is perfectly understandable from a historical perspective. Americans have no comparable experience of being invaded, over and over, throughout history by foreign powers bent on the occupation of Russian territory, and in some cases the annihilation of its people. We simply do not have the ability to imagine what it is like to live with the spectre of alarm at the possibility of being surrounded by potentially hostile powers, and we cannot possibly fathom what it feels like to have 20 million of your fellow citizens butchered during an invasion and occupation.

[anatta]

A complex issue not conducive to easy solutions.

The Kremlin clearly needs to be held to account for violating international norms and standards, for the use of military force to co-opt the sovereign territory of a neighboring nation. Something Trump is clearly loathe to do.

On the other hand, Russia wanting to keep Ukraine out of NATO is perfectly understandable from a historical perspective. Americans have no comparable experience of being invaded, over and over, throughout history by foreign powers bent on the occupation of Russian territory, and in some cases the annihilation of its people. We simply do not have the ability to imagine what it is like to live with the spectre of alarm at the possibility of being surrounded by potentially hostile powers, and we cannot possibly fathom what it feels like to have 20 million of your fellow citizens butchered during an invasion and occupation.

The article blames Russia for the war, I think it was an organic response by the separatists, and the frequent oscillation of orientation between the EU and Russia by the various Kyiv governments..

Of course Putin arms the separatists, and we arm the Kyiv government.

Either way we should at least support the peace talks - no one is doing so, not Trump or the Dems
Ukraine is too intertwined with US politics -we can't see the situation clearly

[Truth Detector]

Give back Crimea russian shitheads

Thanks Obama!

[Truth Detector]

A complex issue not conducive to easy solutions.

The Kremlin clearly needs to be held to account for violating international norms and standards, for the use of military force to co-opt the sovereign territory of a neighboring nation........

Something Obama did NOTHING about. No aid; not threats. Here's Obama's policy in a nutshell:

Obama open mic slip: 'After my election I have more flexibility' to bend over for him.

[jimmymccready]

Return Crimea before solving Donbass. No compromise.

[anatta]

Return Crimea before solving Donbass. No compromise.

it doesn't work like that, Russia has strategic interest in free access to Sevastopol,
which the "colors" Leadership has repeatedly threatened.

If Ukraine and Russia can meet to try to solve the war, why can't you and the USA support such efforts?

[jimmymccready]

It does not work like that. Crimea is Ukraine, period.

anatta, what Russia wants is of no interest to real Americans.

First, we get rid of Trump and the Russian supporters in the GOP.

Second, we get Crime for Ukraine.

A world that has a Russia without Crimea is a safer place for all of us.

[Cypress]

The article blames Russia for the war, I think it was an organic response by the separatists, and the frequent oscillation of orientation between the EU and Russia by the various Kyiv governments..

Of course Putin arms the separatists, and we arm the Kyiv government.

Either way we should at least support the peace talks - no one is doing so, not Trump or the Dems
Ukraine is too intertwined with US politics -we can't see the situation clearly

I doubt Russians, or perhaps even Ukraine see the United States and the Trumpf administration as a fair and honest broker. This is a European problem that requires Europeans to be directly involved in peace negotiations. All we should be doing is supporting a fair and equitable peace process, and to hold the Kremlin accountable for violations of international law.