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Thread: China economy set to sink further

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    Default China economy set to sink further

    The economy grew by 6.0 per cent in the third quarter, and analysts expect it to slow further in the final quarter and into 2020, as tariffs compound the issue
    Trade war just one of many problems facing China, with pork crisis and consumption issues also expected to weigh on growth in the world’s second largest economy
    https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-e...nd-pork-crisis

    A miserable three months for China’s economy was capped by the lowest growth on record on Friday, and the expectation that with darkening storm clouds on the horizon, things are likely to get even worse.
    In the third quarter of 2019, China’s economy grew by 6.0 per cent,
    the slowest rate since quarterly records began 27 years ago and worse than expected. It means growth is now on the floor of Beijing’s target range
    of between 6.0 to 6.5 per cent for 2019. Most analysts expect it to stay within the target range for the year as a whole, but many think it will dip below 6.0 per cent in the final quarter.

    “Actually we still believe the actual growth slowdown might be worse than the headline official numbers,” said Nomura analysts, emphasising the pessimism that is now widespread with regard the world’s second largest economy.

    While the material difference in a percentage point or two of economic growth is scant, for Beijing the symbolism is huge.
    A strong economy is often offered as the justification for the Communist Party’s non-democratic governance of the Chinese people.

    At a time when the country is fighting to contain a pork crisis
    that is hitting citizens in the pocket and a trade war with the United States which is hacking away at factory output and exports, the government is under pressure to ensure it delivers on its promises.

    “We think they are still on track to meet the lower end of the target range for 2019, around 6.1 per cent. Growth for 2020 will be solidly below this, around 5.8 per cent,” said Carlos Casanova, Asia-Pacific economist at insurer Coface. “The question remains: why is China not doing more to boost growth?”

    However, the trade war is just one of the many challenges facing China’s economy. Friday’s data released by the National Bureau of Statistics in Beijing showed that net exports now contribute less than one-fifth to China’s economic growth, when they were previously one of the engines that powered its decades of double-digit economic growth, along with investment. Even without the trade war, Coface’s Casanova said, China’s economy still would have grown at an underwhelming 6.3 per cent in the third quarter.

    Now, with consumption contributing 60 per cent to GDP, many of the challenges are domestic. Retail sales figures released on Friday accelerated modestly to 7.8 per cent from 7.5 per cent the previous month, but remained below the growth rates earlier in the year and well below the double-digit rates from previous years. Concerns over Chinese domestic demand had already been borne out by an 8.5 per cent drop in September’s imports,
    Chinese customs data showed earlier this week.

    Consumers are also being hit by the African swine fever epidemic which will now roll into 2020.
    Pork output accounts for around 1.0 per cent of the Chinese economy and Nomura expects it to drop by 40 per cent in the final quarter of this year, after a 23 per cent collapse in the third quarter due to the disease ravaging China’s pig population.
    The decline in the pig supply that has already taken place suggests that by early next year, pork price inflation will probably have doubled again from September’s 11-year high, weighing on consumer confidence and real incomes,” said Martin Lynge Rasmussen, an analyst at Capital Economics.

    Employment numbers for September, also released on Friday, were steady, but analysts fear that the more economic growth slows, the greater the risk of job losses.

    “One thing that the Chinese government worries more about is not the speed of growth, but employment,” Wu from Oxford Economics added. “If GDP growth gets too slow, then it’s actually more difficult to maintain employment levels.”

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    Pres.Trump's strategy is working, it seems....
    De Oppresso Liber

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    Quote Originally Posted by Grokmaster View Post
    Pres.Trump's strategy is working, it seems....
    China is crafty.. they make promises agreements then don't sign or ignore the agreement.

    "Phase1" does have enforcement mechanisms,and from what I see they will sign that.

    the rest ? they are waiting to see if the US is stupid enough to elect Biden, etc

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    Quote Originally Posted by Grokmaster View Post
    Pres.Trump's strategy is working, it seems....
    How? Both sides lose in a trade war. Farmers in America are getting creamed and we have had to give billions to them to try and save farms. Many are going under. Not much of a win is it?
    Businesses around the country are feeling the pain Trump has caused. Anyone using steel or aluminum is paying.

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    yes as Trump cripples US farmers, shutters factories, makes the rich richer, ignores coal miners, and puts a trillion dollars on Uncle Sam's credit card (should be a debit card)

    yep, hope China PAYS for this shit (but of course they won't)

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    Quote Originally Posted by dukkha View Post
    The economy grew by 6.0 per cent in the third quarter, and analysts expect it to slow further in the final quarter and into 2020, as tariffs compound the issue
    Trade war just one of many problems facing China, with pork crisis and consumption issues also expected to weigh on growth in the world’s second largest economy
    https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-e...nd-pork-crisis

    A miserable three months for China’s economy was capped by the lowest growth on record on Friday, and the expectation that with darkening storm clouds on the horizon, things are likely to get even worse.
    In the third quarter of 2019, China’s economy grew by 6.0 per cent,
    the slowest rate since quarterly records began 27 years ago and worse than expected. It means growth is now on the floor of Beijing’s target range
    of between 6.0 to 6.5 per cent for 2019. Most analysts expect it to stay within the target range for the year as a whole, but many think it will dip below 6.0 per cent in the final quarter.

    “Actually we still believe the actual growth slowdown might be worse than the headline official numbers,” said Nomura analysts, emphasising the pessimism that is now widespread with regard the world’s second largest economy.

    While the material difference in a percentage point or two of economic growth is scant, for Beijing the symbolism is huge.
    A strong economy is often offered as the justification for the Communist Party’s non-democratic governance of the Chinese people.

    At a time when the country is fighting to contain a pork crisis
    that is hitting citizens in the pocket and a trade war with the United States which is hacking away at factory output and exports, the government is under pressure to ensure it delivers on its promises.

    “We think they are still on track to meet the lower end of the target range for 2019, around 6.1 per cent. Growth for 2020 will be solidly below this, around 5.8 per cent,” said Carlos Casanova, Asia-Pacific economist at insurer Coface. “The question remains: why is China not doing more to boost growth?”

    However, the trade war is just one of the many challenges facing China’s economy. Friday’s data released by the National Bureau of Statistics in Beijing showed that net exports now contribute less than one-fifth to China’s economic growth, when they were previously one of the engines that powered its decades of double-digit economic growth, along with investment. Even without the trade war, Coface’s Casanova said, China’s economy still would have grown at an underwhelming 6.3 per cent in the third quarter.

    Now, with consumption contributing 60 per cent to GDP, many of the challenges are domestic. Retail sales figures released on Friday accelerated modestly to 7.8 per cent from 7.5 per cent the previous month, but remained below the growth rates earlier in the year and well below the double-digit rates from previous years. Concerns over Chinese domestic demand had already been borne out by an 8.5 per cent drop in September’s imports,
    Chinese customs data showed earlier this week.

    Consumers are also being hit by the African swine fever epidemic which will now roll into 2020.
    Pork output accounts for around 1.0 per cent of the Chinese economy and Nomura expects it to drop by 40 per cent in the final quarter of this year, after a 23 per cent collapse in the third quarter due to the disease ravaging China’s pig population.
    The decline in the pig supply that has already taken place suggests that by early next year, pork price inflation will probably have doubled again from September’s 11-year high, weighing on consumer confidence and real incomes,” said Martin Lynge Rasmussen, an analyst at Capital Economics.

    Employment numbers for September, also released on Friday, were steady, but analysts fear that the more economic growth slows, the greater the risk of job losses.

    “One thing that the Chinese government worries more about is not the speed of growth, but employment,” Wu from Oxford Economics added. “If GDP growth gets too slow, then it’s actually more difficult to maintain employment levels.”
    Wait a minute, we currently have a growth rate of something like 2.5 while China, even with a decrease, according to your post is at 6.0, and you are implying China is suffering? Am I missing something here?

    A major component you are overlooking is that China is an autocracy, they can actually endure financial loses that will not threaten their political status, the Gov't isn't worried about being thrown out of office, an uprising if things got economically uncomfortable for the populace.

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    Quote Originally Posted by archives View Post
    Wait a minute, we currently have a growth rate of something like 2.5 while China, even with a decrease, according to your post is at 6.0, and you are implying China is suffering? Am I missing something here?
    you are missing the big picture that China needs explosive growth to pay for the New Silk Road -
    and bringing their YUGE population into modern economy (outside the cities for ex.)

    which is why they have targets of at least 6% GDP

    A major component you are overlooking is that China is an autocracy, they can actually endure financial loses that will not threaten their political status, the Gov't isn't worried about being thrown out of office, an uprising if things got economically uncomfortable for the populace.
    not overlooking that at all.
    It's one reason they backtracked back in May and why they are trying to wait Trump out,
    despites the damage to their economy

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    Quote Originally Posted by archives View Post
    Wait a minute, we currently have a growth rate of something like 2.5 while China, even with a decrease, according to your post is at 6.0, and you are implying China is suffering? Am I missing something here?

    A major component you are overlooking is that China is an autocracy, they can actually endure financial loses that will not threaten their political status, the Gov't isn't worried about being thrown out of office, an uprising if things got economically uncomfortable for the populace.
    Apparently Arsecheese has either forgotten or has never heard of Tiananmen Square, silly old sod.
    In rejecting their view [Spinoza, Leibnitz and Hegel], as I shall contend that we must, we are committing ourselves to the opinion that “truth” in empirical material has a meaning different from that which it bears in logic and mathematics.”

    Bertrand Russell, “An Inquiry Into Meaning & Truth” (1940)

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    China will win the trade war and wean off American technology in 7 years, strategist says

    China will win the Sino-U.S. trade war, said the president of Independent Strategy on Monday.

    “China will never trust the United States again, and it will achieve its technology independence within seven years,” he told CNBC’s Squawk Box.

    Chinese tech firms have traditionally been reliant on American suppliers for semiconductors, modems and jet engines. But recent developments in the trade war have called this relationship into question.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/10/chin...trategist.html
    China laughs at Trump.

    China's Chief Negotiator Literally Laughs In Donald Trump's Face During Trade Talk
    https://www.esquire.com/uk/latest-ne...ng-trade-talk/
    BLUEXIT
    A Modest Proposal For Separating Blue States From Red

    Dear Red-State Trump Voter,
    Let’s face it, guys: We’re done.


    It is a tragedy that so much of the work that so many men and women toiled at for so long to make this a better country, and a better world, has been thrown away, leaving us all in such needless peril.

    This is why our separation in all but name is necessary.


    https://newrepublic.com/article/1409...mp-red-america

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    I'm not happy with rump's destruction and inflicting pain anywhere, china or here.
    1Very-Funny-Donald-Trump-Meme-Picture-For-Whatsapp.jpg

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    China's Chief Negotiator Literally Laughs In Donald Trump's Face During Trade Talk
    https://www.esquire.com/uk/latest-ne...ng-trade-talk/
    fake news. Liu was laughing with Trump. But Trump has a point a MOU is NOT binding.

    China is sleazy, they did back out before ( but no MOU) he difference is the public presence of Liu
    and the exchanged letters

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    The Communist economy is growing @ 6%, isn't that about 2 1/2 to 3 times that of the USA?? Yea, lets all celebrate......

    We trade beans for TV's, chips, phones & commuters, hell everything almost........

    "Corporate America today is the lobbying arm of the Chinese Communist Party and Wall Street is the investor relations department," Steve Bannon.

    "Tell the truth, I think, for a change," Carter told MSNBC when asked what advice he would give Trump.

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    Quote Originally Posted by dukkha View Post
    China's Chief Negotiator Literally Laughs In Donald Trump's Face During Trade Talk
    https://www.esquire.com/uk/latest-ne...ng-trade-talk/
    fake news. Liu was laughing with Trump. But Trump has a point a MOU is NOT binding.

    China is sleazy, they did back out before ( but no MOU) he difference is the public presence of Liu
    and the exchanged letters
    Oddly enough I watched it 3 times & never saw trump laugh?? Did you watch the same clip??

    "Corporate America today is the lobbying arm of the Chinese Communist Party and Wall Street is the investor relations department," Steve Bannon.

    "Tell the truth, I think, for a change," Carter told MSNBC when asked what advice he would give Trump.

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    Quote Originally Posted by dukkha View Post

    It's one reason they backtracked back in May and why they are trying to wait Trump out,
    despites the damage to their economy
    You actually doubt they can??

    Even after all the damage he inflicted stops one way or the other, they will obviously still grow & recover much, much faster than we will..........

    O' genius knows the Chinese mind so well, he has read lots of books on them. Like anyone is gonna believe he read anything......

    "Corporate America today is the lobbying arm of the Chinese Communist Party and Wall Street is the investor relations department," Steve Bannon.

    "Tell the truth, I think, for a change," Carter told MSNBC when asked what advice he would give Trump.

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    Quote Originally Posted by archives View Post
    Wait a minute, we currently have a growth rate of something like 2.5 while China, even with a decrease, according to your post is at 6.0, and you are implying China is suffering? Am I missing something here?

    A major component you are overlooking is that China is an autocracy, they can actually endure financial loses that will not threaten their political status, the Gov't isn't worried about being thrown out of office, an uprising if things got economically uncomfortable for the populace.
    Yep....... Most of them can easily remember growing up in poverty now they feel they are all rich...... Not exactly fertile ground for rebellion..

    "Corporate America today is the lobbying arm of the Chinese Communist Party and Wall Street is the investor relations department," Steve Bannon.

    "Tell the truth, I think, for a change," Carter told MSNBC when asked what advice he would give Trump.

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