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Thread: Trump in a landslide? This historically accurate model predicts exactly that

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    Moody's is assuming the economic conditions we have now will continue through election day next year. But everyone knows they won't, and that we will likely be in a recession by this time next year. How does that change their models?

    Also, with Trump running, all bets are off.
    "Alien is a movie where nobody listens to the smart woman, and then they all die except for the smart woman and her cat. Four stars."

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    Quote Originally Posted by archives View Post
    Are you daft, extend it back another twenty years and your conclusion is reversed, further back and it is forgotten
    FDR was such a successful President that we had to pass a Constitutional Amendment to let lesser belief systems have their shot.
    "Alien is a movie where nobody listens to the smart woman, and then they all die except for the smart woman and her cat. Four stars."

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    Quote Originally Posted by archives View Post
    Are you daft, extend it back another twenty years and your conclusion is reversed, further back and it is forgotten
    Ok sport you asked for it I went back 70 years per your request. Here it is please don't cry on your keyboard.


    12th= G W Bush 50.37% and 53.16%

    11th= Carter 55.2%

    10th= Nixon 55.95%

    9th = JFK 56.42

    8th= Trump 56.5%

    7th = HST 57.06%

    6th= Obama 61.71% *
    67.84% *[/COLOR]

    5th= Clinton 68.77% *
    70.45% *

    4th = G W Bush 79.18% * 1st win was a squeaker.

    3rd= IKE 83.06% *
    86.06% *

    2nd= LBJ 90.33% *

    1st= Reagan 90.89% *
    97.58% *



    Republicans 10 wins 5 landslides.
    Democrats 8 wins 5 landslides.


    Sorry sport the facts don't back up your claim.

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    Quote Originally Posted by LV426 View Post
    Moody's is assuming the economic conditions we have now will continue through election day next year. But everyone knows they won't, and that we will likely be in a recession by this time next year. How does that change their models?

    Also, with Trump running, all bets are off.
    You'd be surprised at how many people who didn't vote for Trump in 2016 are going to vote for him in 2020 at least partially due to how the political left and the media have been treating him (and due to how completely unhinged the political left has become).

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    Quote Originally Posted by Grokmaster View Post
    Moody's has been right EVERY ELECTION SINCE 1980....the ONLY "MISS" THEY HAD , LIKE EVERY OTHER PUNDIT, WAS TRUMP, 2016.


    They KNOW BETTER NOW....ENJOY!!





    Trump in a landslide? This historically accurate model predicts exactly that



    President Donald Trump has a love/hate relationship with polls, surveys and predictions. He loves the ones that paint him in a positive light, and, of course, he hates all those “fake” ones that don’t.

    He’s going to absolutely adore this one.

    According to Moody’s Analytics, Trump is headed toward another four years in the White House. And, if the numbers are right, it won’t even be close.

    In fact, his Electoral College victory could very well be wider than the 304-227 margin he enjoyed over Democratic rival Hillary Clinton in the 2016 election.

    Since 1980, Moody’s has managed to nail the outcome every time but once — like many, it didn’t see Trump coming.

    “In our post-mortem of the 2016 presidential election model,” the report said, “we determined that unexpected turnout patterns were one of the factors that contributed to the model’s first incorrect election prediction.” Here’s Moody’s track record, including a 2016 adjustment for the turnout variable:








    Moody’s uses three models to come up with its forecast. In each case, Trump gets at least 289 Electoral College votes.

    The “pocketbook” measure, which focus on how people feel about their money situation, is where Trump shines brightest, grabbing a whopping 351 electoral votes. “If voters were to vote primarily on the basis of their pocketbooks, the president would steamroll the competition,” the report said.

    The stock-market model gives him the slightest edge of 289-249, as investors continue to navigate a volatile investing landscape. Then there’s the unemployment model, which leans heavily in his favor at 332-206.



    https://www.yahoo.com/finance/m/5018...e%3F-this.html
    Two things, Moody's, understandably, weighs economics heavily, but Americans today don't necessarily see today's economy happening because of Trump as they do in spite of Trump, no sitting President with a healthy economy had favorability numbers as low as Trump has now

    Secondly, looking at the elections, the vast majority of all polls called the same results, the favorite won in nearly all of them, except 2016, Moody's included

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    Quote Originally Posted by LV426 View Post
    Moody's is assuming the economic conditions we have now will continue through election day next year. But everyone knows they won't, and that we will likely be in a recession by this time next year. How does that change their models?

    Also, with Trump running, all bets are off.
    They also know that the House Politburo's SHAM "INQUIRY"...will blow up in their faces, as have all their other seditious conspiracy....
    De Oppresso Liber

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    Quote Originally Posted by archives View Post
    Two things, Moody's, understandably, weighs economics heavily, but Americans today don't necessarily see today's economy happening because of Trump as they do in spite of Trump, no sitting President with a healthy economy had favorability numbers as low as Trump has now

    Secondly, looking at the elections, the vast majority of all polls called the same results, the favorite won in nearly all of them, except 2016, Moody's included


    Keep whistling past the graveyard....
    De Oppresso Liber

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    Quote Originally Posted by Grokmaster View Post
    Keep whistling past the graveyard....
    In other words, you got nothing to invalidate my comments, how come I'm not surprised

    Back to Drudge for you, but next time find something you can defend to copy and paste

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    Trump 2020 is a given, game set match.

    If I were a Democrat God forbid

    I'd start actually trying to do something positive so that I had a prayer in beating Ivanka in 2024
    I VOTED FOR THE WHITE GUY THIS TIME

    C̶N̶N̶ SNN.... Shithole News Network

    WHERES RUTH

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    Trump inherited a vibrant and growing economy. He took credit for that from election day on. He is eroding it and has done damage due to his ignorance (like tariffs). I am sure the rightys will blame anyone but Daffy when it continues to crumble.
    Trump also said the debt was easy to deal with and he would wipe it out. How's that working? It is like everything else, Trump does not have a clue.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Centerleftfl View Post
    If, if, if, if, if. ANYTHING is statistically possible. Won't happen. TRUMP WAS IN THE BOTTOM 20% of electoral wins in all 58 elections. And got 3,000,000 less votes. He's going to sweep the board next time?

    Unless maybe he can get RUSSIA to fix the electoral college.
    what are you rambling about now? Bottom 20%? Link to your data please.

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    Trump won several states by very narrow margins. Michigan was especially close. So were the other midesest states. Those are the facts. Trump was helped by the Russians. The vote was so close, that it is obvious that Putin selected our president. Is Putin running a huge operation to keep Trump ion office again?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Gonzomin View Post
    Trump inherited a vibrant and growing economy. He took credit for that from election day on. He is eroding it and has done damage due to his ignorance (like tariffs). I am sure the rightys will blame anyone but Daffy when it continues to crumble.
    Trump also said the debt was easy to deal with and he would wipe it out. How's that working? It is like everything else, Trump does not have a clue.
    There's another insult from you. According to your own criteria, that makes you 'childish'.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Gonzomin View Post
    Trump won several states by very narrow margins. Michigan was especially close. So were the other midesest states. Those are the facts. Trump was helped by the Russians. The vote was so close, that it is obvious that Putin selected our president. Is Putin running a huge operation to keep Trump ion office again?
    YALRMA (Yet Another Lame Russian Meddling Accusation)

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    Quote Originally Posted by Eagle-Eye View Post
    What odd technicalities? Trump won the most electoral votes and that is not an odd technicality.
    It is not a technicality but it is an anomaly when the popular vote winner does not also win the electoral vote.

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