One-in-three chance of recession in the next year

[Tranquillus in Exile]

The US economy faces a one-in-three chance of sliding into recession in the next 12 months, credit ratings agency Standard and Poor’s has warned, as a series of economic signals flash red.

The “spectre of global recession” is stalking the world economy as the trade war bites in the US, China slows, the eurozone is on the brink of contraction and central bankers have little support to offer, economists have warned.

Businesses in the US are increasingly scared of making big investments, while tariffs are starting to drain consumers’ spending power and exports are struggling. US industrial production slid 0.4pc on the month in July, joining the wider industrial slump.

“We are now very much on recession watch,” said economist Michelle Meyer at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, warning that “policy mistakes” are a classic cause of recessions, and the tariff war may be just that.

“The trade war is a slow-motion train wreck and the wounds from the Great Recession are still fresh.”

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business...bal-recession/


Fake news! Trade wars are easy to win! S&P and Bank of America are enemies of the people!

[canceled.2021.2]

Look at what leftists have been reduced to? Trying to scare people into thinking a recession is coming because they know that is their only way to electoral victory.

So sad

[evince]

reporting news is not wishing you fucking idiot

[evince]

Name
Period Range
Duration (months)
Time since previous recession (months)
Peak unemploy*ment
GDP decline (peak to trough)
Characteristics
Great Depression
Aug 1929–Mar 1933
3 years
7 months
1 year
9 months
21.3%(1932)[46]– 24.9%(1933)[47]
−26.7%
A banking panic and a collapse in the money supply took place in the United States that was exacerbated by international commitment to the gold standard.[48][49][50] Extensive new tariffs and other factors contributed to an extremely deep depression.[51] GDP, industrial production, employment, and prices fell substantially. The economy began to recover in the mid 30s with gold inflow expanding the money supply and improving expectations but double dipped during the Recession of 1937–38. The ultimate recovery has been credited to monetary policy and monetary expansion.[52]
Recession of 1937–1938
May 1937–June 1938
1 year
1 month
4 years
2 months
17.8%[46]–
19.0%(1938)[53]
−18.2%
The Recession of 1937 is only considered minor when compared to the Great Depression, but is otherwise among the worst recessions of the 20th century. Three explanations are offered as causes for the recession: the tight fiscal policy resulting from an attempt to balance the budget after New Deal spending, the tight monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, and the declining profits of businesses led to a reduction in business investment.[54]
Recession of 1945
Feb 1945–Oct 1945
8 months
6 years
8 months
5.2%[53]
(1946)
−12.7%
The decline in government spending at the end of World War II led to an enormous drop in gross domestic product, making this technically a recession. This was the result of demobilization and the shift from a wartime to peacetime economy. The post-war years were unusual in a number of ways (unemployment was never high) and this era may be considered a "sui generis end-of-the-war recession".[55][56]
Recession of 1949
Nov 1948–Oct 1949
11 months
3 years
1 month
7.9%
(Oct 1949)
−1.7%
The 1948 recession was a brief economic downturn; forecasters of the time expected much worse, perhaps influenced by the poor economy in their recent lifetimes.[57] The recession also followed a period of monetary tightening.[35]
Recession of 1953
July 1953–May 1954
10 months
3 years
9 months
6.1%
(Sep 1954)
−2.6%
After a post-Korean War inflationary period, more funds were transferred to national security. In 1951, the Federal Reserve reasserted its independence from the U.S. Treasury and in 1952, the Federal Reserve changed monetary policy to be more restrictive because of fears of further inflation or of a bubble forming.[35][58][59]
Recession of 1958
Aug 1957–April 1958
8 months
3 years
3 months
7.5%
(July 1958)
−3.7%
Monetary policy was tightened during the two years preceding 1957, followed by an easing of policy at the end of 1957. The budget balance resulted in a change in budget surplus of 0.8% of GDP in 1957 to a budget deficit of 0.6% of GDP in 1958, and then to 2.6% of GDP in 1959.[35]
Recession of 1960–61
Apr 1960–Feb 1961
10 months
2 years
7.1%
(May 1961)
−1.6%
Another primarily monetary recession occurred after the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates in 1959. The government switched from deficit (or 2.6% in 1959) to surplus (of 0.1% in 1960). When the economy emerged from this short recession, it began the second-longest period of growth in NBER history.[35] The Dow Jones Industrial Average (Dow) finally reached its lowest point on Feb. 20, 1961, about 4 weeks after President Kennedy was inaugurated.
Recession of 1969–70
Dec 1969–Nov 1970
11 months
8 years
10 months
6.1%
(Dec 1970)
−0.6%
The relatively mild 1969 recession followed a lengthy expansion. At the end of the expansion, inflation was rising, possibly a result of increased deficits. This relatively mild recession coincided with an attempt to start closing the budget deficits of the Vietnam War (fiscal tightening) and the Federal Reserve raising interest rates (monetary tightening).[35]
1973–75 recession
Nov 1973–Mar 1975
1 year
4 months
3 years
9.0%
(May 1975)
−3.2%
The 1973 oil crisis, a quadrupling of oil prices by OPEC, coupled with the 1973–1974 stock market crash led to a stagflation recession in the United States.[60][61]
1980 recession
Jan 1980–July 1980
6 months
4 years
10 months
7.8%
(July 1980)
−2.2%
The NBER considers a very short recession to have occurred in 1980, followed by a short period of growth and then a deep recession. Unemployment remained relatively elevated in between recessions. The recession began as the Federal Reserve, under Paul Volcker, raised interest rates dramatically to fight the inflation of the 1970s. The early '80s are sometimes referred to as a "double-dip" or "W-shaped" recession.[35][62]
1981–1982 recession
July 1981–Nov 1982
1 year
4 months
1 year
10.8%
(Nov 1982)
−2.7%
The Iranian Revolution sharply increased the price of oil around the world in 1979, causing the 1979 energy crisis. This was caused by the new regime in power in Iran, which exported oil at inconsistent intervals and at a lower volume, forcing prices up. Tight monetary policy in the United States to control inflation led to another recession. The changes were made largely because of inflation carried over from the previous decade because of the 1973 oil crisis and the 1979 energy crisis.[63][64]
Early 1990s recession in the United States
July 1990–Mar 1991
8 months
7 years
8 months
7.8%
(June 1992)
−1.4%
After the lengthy peacetime expansion of the 1980s, inflation began to increase and the Federal Reserve responded by raising interest rates from 1986 to 1989. This weakened but did not stop growth, but some combination of the subsequent 1990 oil price shock, the debt accumulation of the 1980s, and growing consumer pessimism combined with the weakened economy to produce a brief recession.[65][66][67]
Early 2000s recession
Mar 2001–Nov 2001
8 months
10 years
6.3%
(June 2003)
−0.3%
The 1990s was once the longest period of growth in American history. The collapse of the speculative dot-com bubble, a fall in business outlays and investments, and the September 11th attacks,[68] brought the decade of growth to an end. Despite these major shocks, the recession was brief and shallow.[69]
Great Recession
Dec 2007–June 2009[70][71]
1 year
6 months
6 years
1 month
10.0%
(October 2009)[72]
−5.1%[73]
The subprime mortgage crisis led to the collapse of the United States housing bubble. Falling housing-related assets contributed to a global financial crisis, even as oil and food prices soared. The crisis led to the failure or collapse of many of the United States' largest financial institutions: Bear Stearns, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Lehman Brothers, Citi Bank and AIG, as well as a crisis in the automobile industry. The government responded with an unprecedented $700 billion bank bailout and $787 billion fiscal stimulus package. The National Bureau of Economic Research declared the end of this recession over a year after the end date.[74] The Dow Jones Industrial Average (Dow) finally reached its lowest point on


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o..._United_States

[evince]

republicans don't want the average American to understand what causes recessions


Then their DEREGULATION march is outed for what it is


a recession creator for the wealthy

[Jade Dragon]

The US economy faces a one-in-three chance of sliding into recession in the next 12 months, credit ratings agency Standard and Poor’s has warned, as a series of economic signals flash red.

The “spectre of global recession” is stalking the world economy as the trade war bites in the US, China slows, the eurozone is on the brink of contraction and central bankers have little support to offer, economists have warned.

Businesses in the US are increasingly scared of making big investments, while tariffs are starting to drain consumers’ spending power and exports are struggling. US industrial production slid 0.4pc on the month in July, joining the wider industrial slump.

“We are now very much on recession watch,” said economist Michelle Meyer at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, warning that “policy mistakes” are a classic cause of recessions, and the tariff war may be just that.

“The trade war is a slow-motion train wreck and the wounds from the Great Recession are still fresh.”

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business...bal-recession/


Fake news! Trade wars are easy to win! S&P and Bank of America are enemies of the people!

I don't think it's brewing this year but I imagine it will happen before things can change to lessen it. Just from some of the home renovation shows I watch you hear about issues in the market.

[Tranquillus in Exile]

Look at what leftists have been reduced to? Trying to scare people into thinking a recession is coming because they know that is their only way to electoral victory.

Oh no, he's on to us!

I confess: Standard & Poors and Bank of America are working for the DNC. Hillary recruited them for a cut of Uranium One and a slice of Pizzagate.

[evince]

LOL



yeah Mitch is crying croc tears because hes been caught in an Aluminum deal with Russia


and the right seemed to PRETEND Hilary did a Uranium deal with Russia and that was evil



the Uranium deal was a lie and Mitches deal is real

[Jade Dragon]

Oh no, he's on to us!

I confess: Standard & Poors and Bank of America are working for the DNC. Hillary recruited them for a cut of Uranium One and a slice of Pizzagate.

I like how he had to say electoral victory instead of just victory. Just examining the way he's gloating in a psychological sense gives the vibe of, sure it's a cheat code but fuck you anyway libtards.

[USFREEDOM911]

The US economy faces a one-in-three chance of sliding into recession in the next 12 months, credit ratings agency Standard and Poor’s has warned, as a series of economic signals flash red.

The “spectre of global recession” is stalking the world economy as the trade war bites in the US, China slows, the eurozone is on the brink of contraction and central bankers have little support to offer, economists have warned.

Businesses in the US are increasingly scared of making big investments, while tariffs are starting to drain consumers’ spending power and exports are struggling. US industrial production slid 0.4pc on the month in July, joining the wider industrial slump.

“We are now very much on recession watch,” said economist Michelle Meyer at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, warning that “policy mistakes” are a classic cause of recessions, and the tariff war may be just that.

“The trade war is a slow-motion train wreck and the wounds from the Great Recession are still fresh.”

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business...bal-recession/


Fake news! Trade wars are easy to win! S&P and Bank of America are enemies of the people!

So there's a 2 in 3 chance that there won't be a recession.

[Cancel 2020.2]

So there's a 2 in 3 chance that there won't be a recession.

It's simply incredible that some on this site seem to be hoping for a recession and our country to do poorly. These are NOT patriotic Americans and would better off in say, Venezuela or the Middle East if they hate their own country that much.

[Tranquillus in Exile]

It's simply incredible that some on this site seem to be hoping for a recession and our country to do poorly. These are NOT patriotic Americans and would better off in say, Venezuela or the Middle East if they hate their own country that much.

Listen up, genius IQ. I'm not hoping for a recession, I'm reporting what the major financial institutions of America are warning about. There almost certainly will be a recession in the next couple of years - the signs are piling up - and a major cause will be Trump's bungling.

But hey, maybe it won't hit until after November 2020! Won't that be great? Hold on to that thought, PATRIOT.

[dukkha]

Listen up, genius IQ. I'm not hoping for a recession, I'm reporting what the major financial institutions of America are warning about. There almost certainly will be a recession in the next couple of years - the signs are piling up - and a major cause will be Trump's bungling.

But hey, maybe it won't hit until after November 2020! Won't that be great? Hold on to that thought, PATRIOT.

the world economy is slowing down and could contract -but the US economy has all the signs of a healthy economy.
Anything can happen 3 years out - we don't even know for sure next year won't be a recession
( though I doubt it) -so it's utterly pointless to discuss contractions other then generalized macro-economc terms

[Tranquillus in Exile]

Predicting the next U.S. recession

August 13, 2019

The recent rise in U.S.-China trade war tensions has brought forward the next U.S. recession, according to a majority of economists polled by Reuters who now expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates again in September and once more next year.

Trade tensions have pulled corporate confidence and global growth to multi-year lows and U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement of more tariffs have raised downside risks significantly, Morgan Stanley analysts said in a recent note.

Morgan Stanley forecast that if the U.S. lifts tariffs on all imports from China to 25 percent for 4-6 months and China takes countermeasures, the U.S. would be in recession in three quarters.

Goldman Sachs Group said on Sunday that fears of the U.S.-China trade war leading to a recession are increasing and that Goldman no longer expects a trade deal between the world’s two largest economies before the 2020 U.S. presidential election.

Then they go into details:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-u...-idUSKCN1V31JE

[Earl]

1990–1991

This recession ran nine months, from July 1990 to March 1991. The 1989 savings and loan crisis caused it. GDP was -3.6% in Q4 1990 and -1.9% in Q1 1991. Unemployment peaked at 7.8% in June 1992.
2001

The 2001 recession lasted eight months, from March to November. It was caused by a boom and subsequent bust in dot-com businesses. The boom was partially created by the Y2K scare in 2000. Companies bought billions of dollars’ worth of new software because they were afraid the old systems weren't designed to transition from the 1900s to the 2000s. But many dot-com businesses were significantly overvalued and failed.

The 9/11 attack worsened the recession. The economy contracted in two quarters: Q1, -1.1% and Q3, -1.7%. Unemployment continued rising until it peaked at 6.3% in June 2003.
2008–2009

The Great Recession was the worst financial crisis in the United States since the 1929 Depression. It also was the longest-lasting: from December 2007 to June 2009. The subprime mortgage crisis was the trigger. That created a global bank credit crisis in 2007. By 2008, the credit crisis had spread to the general economy through the widespread use of derivatives.

The economy shrank in five quarters, including four quarters in a row. Two quarters contracted more than 5%. In Q4 2008, GDP was -8.4%, worse than any other recession since the Great Depression. The recession ended in Q3 2009, when GDP turned positive, thanks to an economic stimulus package.
https://www.thebalance.com/the-histo...states-3306011

Recessions are cyclic and are not caused by presidential interference.