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Thread: Don't blame the oil 'speculators'

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    Does anybody want to drive to Loisiana and beat up topspin? I will pay expenses, plus. I will need digital evidence of course, to put up on youtube and link here.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Darla View Post
    Does anybody want to drive to Loisiana and beat up topspin? I will pay expenses, plus. I will need digital evidence of course, to put up on youtube and link here.
    save yourself the travel expenses.... just hire a local Lousiana third grader...
    Quote from Cypress:
    "Scientists don't use "averages". Maybe armchair supertools on message boards ascribe some meaning to "averages" between two random data points. And maybe clueless amatuers "draw a straight line" through two random end data points to define a "trend". Experts don't.

    They use mean annual and five year means in trend analysis. Don't tell me I have to explain the difference to you. "

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    Quote Originally Posted by Superfreak View Post
    save yourself the travel expenses.... just hire a local Lousiana third grader...
    LOl - good one sf.

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    Might be overkill SF, but best to err in that direction I suppose.
    Bush doubled the debt from 5 trillion to 10 trillion.
    Proving tax cuts work!

    Bush asked for and signed for the TARP money.
    The Republican senate leader backed Bush on this.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Darla View Post
    Does anybody want to drive to Loisiana and beat up topspin? I will pay expenses, plus. I will need digital evidence of course, to put up on youtube and link here.
    Can't send your man cause you don't have one.
    You could send superfreak, and I'll pay the expenses.
    The stone that the builder refused
    Will always be the head corner stone

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    9. The big events relate to high oil price (9/12/08)

    When Iraq's Bourse inaugulated, the inside group decided to push up the oil price as high as they could. Then to start war on Iran to justify the price coming down. High oil price would hurt economy badly. To soften the intension, they played a "tax refund" game. All these happened in February.

    567. Oil price, tax refund and Iran war (8/29/08)

    Now it becomes clear the original Iran war plot was planed to start around August 8, when the openning ceremony of Olympic Games was performed in China; the war broke out between Georgia and Russia; and a joint naval armada consisted of US, UK and France headed for Iran. The plot should have been designed in February, when Iran inaugurated its oil Bourse. To save the dollar, US pushed up the oil price. That price, I think, had been projected to maintain in high level until Iran was attacked and going out of oil trading business. In another word, the oil price will go normal after Iran going back to petro-dollar in oil trading. The price manipulation will justify the Iran war: See, It was Iran caused high oil price, we had a war on Iran and defeated it. Now price come down. The opinion certainly will be approved by a lot of people.

    But the oil price went down after July 4th, a month earlier than the planed war date. Why?

    1. I posted "556. Petro-dollar, the cause of Iran war (7/4/08)" on 7/4. Pointed out US manipulated oil price to save the dollar. And Iran war is inevitable. On same day, obviously felt the approaching war threat, Iran had a positive response to the nuclear package. I at first thought Iran's response may postpone the US war plan. In #557, written on 7/9, I wrote, "Iran's constructive preliminary response is positive. But it's a dismay to warmonger. They lose an important excuse to start a war. It disturbs their war schedule. So US media treat the news with a low key and drop the news in the corner. However, the market reaction is inspiring. From 7/5 to 7/8, the oil price dropped for four days from $145 to $136 a barrel."

    2. But the later development changed my view. US still send a massive naval armada to Persian Gulf. It means US doesn't care Iran's active response.

    Before Iraq war, Saddam Hussain let weapon inspection team of U.N. inspect and search the WMD in Iraq. He even let them search his palace. The U.N. weapon inspection team found no evidence of WMD. Still, US invaded Iraq. Because WMD is only an excuse. So what for Iran's positive response. When a wolf wants to eat a lamb, it will do even there is no excuse.

    3. Now I think the oil price start to drop is the result of my analysis posted on 7/4. Feds used to have swift response to my revelation.(see #47, 96, 113,168,337, 531.) Oil price is very sensitive to ordinary people. It affects their daily life. If people knew that the high price is caused by the manipulation of the government insiders, the response will be disastrous. So they quickly drive down the price.

    4. One thing leads me to conclude that the government insiders had planed the August Iran war in February was their decision of tax refund in that month. When Iran inaugurated its oil Bourse on 2/17, the inside group chose to push up the oil price to save the dollar. At the purpose that people will become angry at the high price. The inside group will take the chance to activate a war. When Iran has been forced to return to the petro dollar in oil trading, the oil price will drop. No one will blame this war then. The higher the oil price goes, the better the Iran war will be justified. So the group blows the trumpet:

    Quote, "Goldman Sachs: $5.75 Per Gallon Gas Soon
    Monday, June 30, 2008 12:00 PM

    Look for the price of crude oil to continue to climb - reaching upwards of $200 per barrel - and for prices at the pump to reach $5.75 per gallon in the next two years, warns Goldman Sachs’ gas guru Arjun Murti .

    http://moneynews.newsmax.com/streett...30/108535.html

    Four days later, the bubble broke off at $147/barrel. Due to, I think, my revelation. Otherwise, the oil price would have been possible at $170/barrel in early August - the planed war time.

    Someone said the government is incompetent. I don't think so. Did you see how they could start an unjust war in the name of something not existed? And how they had that notorious President to stay on the seat once again in 2004? This tax refund case, from the plan date in February to June when most people received their cheques, took only four months. It was very efficient. Why? Because the planed high oil price will hurt consumers confidence and hit the economy badly. So they gave each family $300 - $600 dollars to compensate the pain of the temporary high gas price. For June, July and August when the planed war would break out.

    The oil price dropped to $110, then fluctuate between $110 and $120. It seems to be the equilibrium boundary for the dollar. Why they pushed it to $147 and intended more? Because the higher the oil price goes, the higher profit the speculator makes, and the better the war justified.

    5. $110/barrel oil price is still too high, but a necessary to support the dollar. To pull it down, Iran war is inevitable.

    Everything is prepared: false flag attack; secret deal with Russia and China; cooperation of allies; massive naval armada.... why they delayed again? Remember what I have said, the first priority for the Feds is to eliminate a witness of their crime who have revealed their plot so many times. So be watchful these days on hurricane, "natural disaster" and "terror attacks".

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    10. The real hand behind oil price manipulation (10/14/08)

    An article on September 11 revealed the hand behind oil price manipulation.

    Quote, "Speculators blamed for wild swings in oil"

    By H. Josef Hebert
    Associated Press

    Washington - Speculation by large investors - and not supply and demand for - were a primary reason for the surge in oil prices during the first half of the year and the more recent price declines, an independent study concluded Wednesday.

    The report by Masters Capital Management said investors poured $60 billion into oil futures markets during the first five months of the year as oil prices soared from $95 a barrel in January to $145 a barrel by July.

    Since then, these investors have withdrawn $39 billion from those markets as prices have retreated dramatically, the report said. Oil traded at about $102 a barrel Wednesday on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

    "We have clear evidence the fund flow pushed prices up and the fund flow pushed prices down,"said Michael Masters of Masters Capital Management, calling the amount of money moving into oil futures markets by large institutional investors in the early part of the year "way off the scale."

    Masters said its analysis shows investors "began a massive stampede for the exits" on July 15 and that this caused the price decline. "
    (San Jose Mercury, 9/11/2008)

    Since the future market needs only 7% down on the future contract, the leverage is 1:14. That means 60 billion fund operated the contract worth of 840 billion. It's more than the 700 billion rescue fund government asked to save the current financial market tsunami.
    The conclusion is not a new discovery. Two years ago (in June 2006) when the oil price inflated from $25 per barrel to the then prevailing price of $60 per barrel, the Senate Committee had found this already : "The report points out that large purchase of crude oil futures contracts by speculators has, in effect, created additional demand for oil and in the process driven up the future prices of oil......." (see Oil price #3)

    Then why our law makers left this important issue alone and let the oil price to go up like a rocket?

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    11. How can US dollar stands strong when oil price going down? (12/3/08)

    The oil price now drops below $50/barrel. To my theory, the dollar should drop too. Because the buyers now have excessive petro-dollars. But dollar stands strong. What happens?

    1. The speculators - which I think are controlled by intelligence, so they could influence central banks of western nations - are manipulating the exchange rate of Euro. When the oil price was at $145/barrel, the exchange rate of Euro/dollar was 1.6:1. When the oil price went to $110, the Euro rate became 1.36:1. When the oil price went to $90, it became 1.26:1. Euro devalued 20% against dollar followed the oil price dropping. It's abnormal. Because US suffers a sub-prime crisis. The downward oil price would release excess petro-dollar.Capital should escape from US. Dollar should be dumped and de-valued. But the unusual weak Euro prevented the capital escaping from dollar country. Dollar stands firm.

    2. Driving the capital back into USA. Here is a typical report: "Speeding out, foreign capital net remittence output. From 9/1 to 9/5, the net remittence output of foreign capital reached 2.77 billion US dollars, compare with the net remittence output of 5 billion in whole month of August, the foreign investors having a tendency of accelerated leaving after they pour out the stock investment in Taiwan.market. "World Journal, 9/13/08)

    Be noticed that the money back tendency started from August, the time when 8/8/08 planned Iran war went soured. The phenomenon was world wide. The stock market collapsed everywhere in Europe, South America and Asia. Singapore, Hongkong, South Korea, Japan.... they used to have a big foreign currency reserve, mainly dollar. The reserve unusual reduced these months. The money, goes back to the investor - the US.

    Though the oil price drops 70%, US dollar seems not been affected. It stands strong. Because an unusual weak Euro, and a big retreat of US foreign investment that drove the dollar back into US. But the price is high - US suffers a financial tsunami. You may have noticed, the tsunami started in August too - the time when the planed Iran war went soured.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Topspin View Post
    Can't send your man cause you don't have one.
    You could send superfreak, and I'll pay the expenses.
    Some good trash talking going on in this thread.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Threedee View Post
    $1.79 a Gallon @ 76!!!!!!!!
    I got it at $1.489 at the closest gas station (10 miles) from my house.
    Excellence is an art won by training and habituation. We do not act rightly because we have virtue or excellence, but rather we have those because we have acted rightly. We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act but a habit.
    - -- Aristotle

    Believe nothing on the faith of traditions, even though they have been held in honor for many generations and in diverse places. Do not believe a thing because many people speak of it. Do not believe on the faith of the sages of the past. Do not believe what you yourself have imagined, persuading yourself that a God inspires you. Believe nothing on the sole authority of your masters and priests. After examination, believe what you yourself have tested and found to be reasonable, and conform your conduct thereto.
    - -- The Buddha

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    I wonder how many speculators lost their ass on the way down? I don't hear any lefties crying about the losses...

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    Quote Originally Posted by Threedee View Post
    Ha! And they said it would never again be $1.50. Now, if I could just remember who "they" were, there might be some money in it for me...
    I freely admit, I never thought we would see it back below $2

    Of course I never thought the dollar would strengthen this much in the face of our economic problems and all the fiat money we are printing to combat the problem.
    Quote from Cypress:
    "Scientists don't use "averages". Maybe armchair supertools on message boards ascribe some meaning to "averages" between two random data points. And maybe clueless amatuers "draw a straight line" through two random end data points to define a "trend". Experts don't.

    They use mean annual and five year means in trend analysis. Don't tell me I have to explain the difference to you. "

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    Quote Originally Posted by Troglodyte27 View Post
    I wonder how many speculators lost their ass on the way down? I don't hear any lefties crying about the losses...
    I bet many made money and many lost money.... probably around that 50% mark for each
    Quote from Cypress:
    "Scientists don't use "averages". Maybe armchair supertools on message boards ascribe some meaning to "averages" between two random data points. And maybe clueless amatuers "draw a straight line" through two random end data points to define a "trend". Experts don't.

    They use mean annual and five year means in trend analysis. Don't tell me I have to explain the difference to you. "

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