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Thread: Will America Make Trump Great Again?

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    Default Will America Make Trump Great Again?

    By Jamelle Bouie


    The night before the 2016 presidential election, I thought Hillary Clinton would win and Donald Trump would go down to a convincing defeat. I was wrong.

    Since then, I’ve tried to be humble about my ability to forecast events, which also means taking the other side of a prediction as seriously as the one I’m inclined to believe.

    I’m inclined to believe that President Trump is on the path to defeat.

    He trails his most well-known rivals. He’s down nearly 9 points against Joe Biden, 6 points against Bernie Sanders, and roughly 3 points for Elizabeth Warren and Kamala Harris.

    These matchups, in which he rarely lands above the low 40s, reflect Trump’s job approval. More than 53 percent of Americans disapprove of his job performance; 42.5 percent of Americans give him good marks. That’s a relative high for a president who has never reached 50 percent approval, but it’s low compared with most of his predecessors at this point in their first terms.

    Political elites are also acting as if Trump won’t glide into a second term. As they debate the future of their movement, many conservatives seem to think that Trump won’t last long or leave a permanent mark on conservative politics. If House Speaker Nancy Pelosi would rather face the president in an election than try to impeach him, it’s because she — and other more cautious Democratic leaders — believe they’re likely to win.

    Trump is on the growth side of a business cycle. It’s not as robust as past expansions, but unemployment is low and, crucially, wages have increased, however slightly. Seventy percent of Americans say the economy is either “excellent” or “good,” although only 41 percent say he deserves credit. It’s his behavior — the lies and the prejudice, the corruption and the incompetence — that has made him unpopular, and kept him far below the typical president with economic growth on his side.

    Will this hold? Will Trump claim the benefits of a strong economy, or will his actions and behavior leave him on the wrong side of the public and on the path to defeat?
    .
    In April, looking ahead to the 2020 election, Emory University political scientist Alan Abramowitz published a range of likely forecasts of the Electoral College vote using second-quarter economic growth and Trump’s overall approval (his negative rating subtracted from his positive rating) as his key variables. Under a significant slowdown, where the economy does not grow in the first half of next year, Trump loses even if he pulls the impossible (for him) and shrinks the gap between his approval and disapproval ratings. Under a modest slowdown, where the economy is growing at about 1 percent, he loses unless he eliminates that gap. But if the economy continues on its path — if there’s 2 percent or 3 percent growth in the first half of next year — then Abramowitz projects a Trump win even if his disapproval rating rises.

    Donald Trump is a bizarre man to have as president. He confounds the conventional wisdom about politics. But he’s also been subject to the typical rules of politics. When he does unpopular things, he becomes unpopular. Political gravity exists, and it has kept him at a disadvantage.

    It’s worth saying that Trump seems to think he’s vulnerable. (“If I didn’t have the Phony Witch Hunt going on for 3 years,” he said on Twitter, “I would be way up in the Polls right now.”) His internal polling from earlier this year shows him far behind Joe Biden in four critical swing states — Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan and Florida — as well as slightly behind in Republican-leaning states like Georgia and North Carolina. Embarrassed by the disclosure, Trump said it was “incorrect polling” and subsequently fired the pollsters.

    In the same way, you can also understand his willingness to accept foreign election assistance as a tacit admission of his own weakness, the language of a cheater who isn’t confident he can win of his own volition.

    But if that’s true, Trump, like his opposition, may be underestimating his ability to win. If the economy continues to grow and his approval stays steady — if the future looks and feels like the present — then President Trump may be on his way to a second term. He’ll have four more years to “Make America Great Again” — or “Keep America Great” — with all that means for the fate of our democracy.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/22/o...-2020-win.html

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    Way too early to predict, and all these polls eighteen months out are inanity, but it is very easy to see Trump winning again in 2020, he has several key advantages any Democrat lacks

    First, he is the incumbent, and outside of HW and Ford, when was the last time an incumbent lost? Even as unpopular as Truman was at the time he won reelection

    Second, the electoral college makes it easier for him, it all comes down to five or six states, which we saw in 2016, even the slightest of margins can deliever the election

    Third, Trump has en entire cable network campaigning for him 24/7, if he sneezes they'll frame it into significant political "news" promoting him. You can even see it now when often any reference to Biden is made it is often prefaced with "sleepy Joe" rather than any of his formal or casual titles

    Fourth, Trump will receive foreign assistence helping him to get him reelected, except this time, based upon his inviting announcement two weeks ago, it will come from all his autocratic buddies and not just Russia. The world knows that the US Justice Dept won't interfere with Trump's Roy Cohn at the helm

    Fifth, Trump will use the power of the Federal Gov't to aid in his reelection. Be it the Justice Dept, IRS, or any other Department headed by one of Trump's lackeys, wherever they can get involved they will, as we have seen, Trump thinks it is all there to serve him

    Given such, regardless of the Democrat candidate, it is easy to see Trump reelected

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