BLS: Trump Recession looms, Americans less prepared than before Bush Rcession

[LV426]

Pick Bernie and the economy crashes .....

The economy is already crashing.

Atlanta Fed predicts just 1.5% GDP growth this quarter.

Worst jobs report in 10 years.

Market has grown less than 3% since the start of the Russia Tax Cut.

None of the manufacturing jobs that Trump "brought back" are in the same industries that lost them, nor are they being created in the same places; in fact, a YUGE chunk of the "manufacturing jobs" are not in durable goods, but craft beer and wine.

In the Race for Manufacturing Jobs, the Midwest Isn't Winning
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/13/b...ring-jobs.html

[Getin the ring]

The economy is already crashing.

ok Dorothy, could you say hello to he tin man for me

[reagansghost]

The numbers: The New York Fed’s Empire State business conditions index took a sharp turn for the worse in June, falling into negative territory for the first time in more than two years.

The Empire State manufacturing index plummeted 26.4 points to negative 8.6 in June, the New York Fed said Monday. That’s a record decline. Economists had expected a reading of positive 10, according to a survey by Econoday.

Any reading below zero indicates a contraction in activity. The last time the index was negative was in October 2016.


https://www.marketwatch.com/story/em...une-2019-06-17

[dukkha]

One oft-cited statistic points to just how unstable the finances of most Americans are: nearly 40 percent of households could not withstand an unexpected expenditure of $400 — the cost of just one medical bill or car repair.

nothing new here..although savings rate did tic up a bit

[reagansghost]

nothing new here..although savings rate did tic up a bit

nothing new? largest drop ever?

got it

[LV426]

nothing new here..although savings rate did tic up a bit

After dropping like a rock following every single tax cut in the last 40 years.

[dukkha]

Still, there are some signs of hope for the counties that the group rates as the most economically distressed quintile. Collectively, they lost factory jobs throughout the Obama administration, but they added more than 20,000 during Mr. Trump’s first two years, with the biggest gains in the Southeast, including Tennessee, the Carolinas, Arkansas and Georgia.

Obama lost 200k manufacturing jobs and claimed they were not coming back without a "magic wand"

[dukkha]

After dropping like a rock following every single tax cut in the last 40 years.

don't even talk to me with your voodoo economics.. you need to cite and make a case before I begin to take you seriously.
But Americans just don't save much anymore other then forced retirement etc.

[LV426]

Obama lost 200k manufacturing jobs and claimed they were not coming back without a "magic wand"

Let's talk about those "manufacturing jobs" Trump supposedly "brought back"...

1. None of them are in the industries that lost the manufacturing jobs.

2. None of them are even in the same states and municipalities that lost them.

3. A significant part of those manufacturing jobs don't actually produce durable goods! A massive part of the growth of "manufacturing" is thanks solely to marijuana, craft beer, and wine.

4. The "manufacturing jobs" Trump has "created" on average pay the same or less than the jobs that were lost.

In the Race for Factory Jobs Under Drumpf, the Midwest Isn’t Winning
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/13/b...ring-jobs.html

[LV426]

don't even talk to me with your voodoo economics

You stupidly thought for 40 years that if we cut taxes for the rich and their pet corporations, that it would trickle down prosperity on the rest of us.

You, personally, were saying in December 2017 that if we passed the Russia Tax Cut, wages would grow by $4,000-$9,000.

Your strategy seems to be to initially support bad policy, then project that onto others in an act of bad faith.

What a fraud.

[LV426]

But Americans just don't save much anymore other then forced retirement etc.

They don't save much because their wages aren't growing. They have to spend more on health care and education, which means they save less, borrow more, and spend less on consumer products.

Every solution to this problem is one you oppose on principle.

You're just a hack.

[LV426]

don't even talk to me with your voodoo economics

It's your voodoo economics.

You're the ones who said that if we cut taxes, everyone would see wage increases.

Except that the exact opposite occurred, and after taxes were cut, personal savings decline and household debt rises.

That because you're deliberately creating deficits that are closed with cuts to things like education and health care spending, which forces more out-of-pocket spending and less savings.

Nearly every problem we have today is because of bad policies you supported over the years.

[PoliTalker]

Hello reagansghost,

President Trump was lucky enough to inherit an economy that saw a record string of months with positive job growth and falling unemployment rates.

But the recent jobs report hinted that this rosy period may be coming to an end.


The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that May saw a slowdown in net new additions to payroll and made downward revisions to earlier numbers released for March and April — clear signs that job growth has slowed. Unemployed workers are finding it increasingly difficult to land new jobs, with the share of unemployed workers on the hunt for more than six months rising. Unemployed women are more likely to drop out of looking for jobs than land a job in the following month.

What if this all signals more than just a one-off drop in job creation? What if, instead, we’re heading towards a downturn in the labor market?

The US economy is more fragile than it has been at this point in any previous economic expansion. Though this expansion only needs one more month to be the longest in U.S. economic history, a record number of households are more than 90 days late on their car loan payments. The sale of existing homes continues to fall to new lows, reflecting the difficulty for younger workers to form new households and transition from renters to homeowners. Their low earnings, low savings and high student debt compared to earlier generations all factor in here.

One oft-cited statistic points to just how unstable the finances of most Americans are: nearly 40 percent of households could not withstand an unexpected expenditure of $400 — the cost of just one medical bill or car repair.

The most unnerving point to keep in mind is that we are even less prepared for a sudden slowing of the economy than we were before the Great Recession of 2008.
That crisis taught us a key lesson: how important “automatic stabilizers” are to the economy. Those stabilizers, like unemployment insurance, pump money into households when the economy loses jobs and provides a floor to falling incomes and the subsequent decline in marketplace demand.

These are “automatic” because they do not require new legislation; when more people are eligible, the increase in expenditures happens automatically. In a Congress where Republicans voted against all economic proposals of President Obama during the recovery from the Great Recession, avoiding partisan gridlock is critical. Yet the unemployment insurance system is far weaker today than it was in 2008.


https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/05/job-...-just-27k.html

....opps, there goes Donny's only remaining talking point!

The downside to 'automatic stabilizers' is that when demand for their services is high, such as during a recession, it is the government which picks up the tab. Since the government already spends more than it collects in revenue (thanks to reduced taxes on the rich) all of the increased spending goes directly onto the federal debt. That would be the same federal debt that is already climbing out of control with a trillion dollar deficit. That means we tack on a trillion dollars to the debt every year it remains out of control. Thanks go to Republicans for voting in tax cuts for the rich, who used to pay most of the taxes.

[StoneByStone]

Funny how every time we have a Republican president, we get a recession. Coincidences, am I right?

[PoliTalker]

The Bush recession was a doozy.